Environmental drivers of heritable trait variation and lag of adaptation to climate in Hordeum murinum

Abstract

1. Most plant species are genetically differentiated among populations, often reflected by phenotypic trait variation that corresponds to local adaptation. Yet the strength of local adaptation and heritable contribution to phenotypic traits vary across traits, species, and environments. Additionally, climate change is rapidly altering environmental conditions, and the climate may shift faster than populations can adapt or track the change via dispersal, resulting in adaptive lags. However, it remains unclear how widespread such adaptive lags are across plant species. 2. We focused on Hordeum murinum, an annual ruderal grass widespread in Europe. We combined continental-scale in situ measurements of 2070 plants across 207 populations with common garden experiments across two contrasting climates and two soil types to disentangle heritable variation from phenotypic plasticity and assess potential adaptive lags under climate change. 3. We found that heritable variation was pronounced in developmental traits, particularly flowering time and plant height, while seed weight, reproductive investment and SLA showed intermediate heritable contribution, and flag leaf area and total biomass were primarily plastic. Heritable trait variation was strongly associated with temperature at the populations origin, and trait clines were consistent with in situ patterns, suggesting that temperature is the main driver of genetic differentiation in H. murinum. However, we detected that fitness peaked in populations originating from warmer climates, indicating that evolutionary responses may not keep pace with rapid environmental shifts. 4. Synthesis: Our results highlight that H. murinum harbors substantial heritable variation, shaped primarily by temperature. However, the pace of evolutionary change may be insufficient to track ongoing climate change, leaving populations potentially vulnerable to future environmental conditions.