Early establishment acts as a selective filter shaping climate-associated genomic variation in European beech

Abstract

Climate change is increasing drought and heat stress in European forests, raising concerns about the capacity of long-lived tree species to respond to rapidly changing environmental conditions. While local adaptation has been documented in many forest trees, it remains unclear whether newly established seedlings, which form the forests of the future, are able to persist and adapt to these new climatic conditions. Here, we investigated genomic differences between naturally regenerated seedlings and trees of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) across the three regions of the German Biodiversity Exploratories using low-coverage whole-genome sequencing (5x) of 1,032 individuals. Population structure was primarily driven by geographic region, whereas genetic diversity was similar across life stages. Despite this genome-wide similarity, we detected allele frequency shifts between trees and seedlings, concentrated in narrow genomic windows. These shifts were strongest in surviving seedlings, suggesting that environmental filtering during early establishment may contribute to shaping the genetic composition of regenerating populations. The strongest signals were observed within the Swabian Alb, where sampled seedlings were 2-years old and had experienced a longer period of potential filtering prior to sampling. Genotype - environment association analyses identified loci associated with climatic variables, and subsequent GO enrichment analyses of genes linked to these loci revealed significantly more enriched GO terms in seedlings than in trees, suggesting stronger environmental filtering by the current climate in seedlings. In particular, we found associations with maximum air temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, and precipitation, affecting genes involved in stress responses, growth, metabolism, and developmental processes. Together, our results demonstrate that young cohorts of European beech differ genetically from trees and reveal genomic patterns consistent with life-stage-dependent environmental filtering. These findings suggest that the genetic composition of early life-stages is already altered by current environmental conditions, possibly contributing to adaptation to new climatic conditions.