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bioRxiv · 10.1101/798694

Risk to North American Birds from Climate Change-Related Threats

Bateman, B. L.·Taylor, L.·Wilsey, C.·Wu, J.·LeBaron, G. S.·Langham, G.
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Abstract

Climate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally, compounded by threats that could hinder species ability to respond through range shifts. However, little research has examined how future bird ranges may coincide with multiple stressors at a broad scale. Here, we assess the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5{degrees}C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0{degrees}C. Threats considered included sea level rise, lake level change, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We developed a gridded index of risk based on coincident threats, species richness, and richness of vulnerable species. To assign risk to individual species and habitat groups, we overlaid future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species ranges affected in both the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Nearly all species will face at least one new climate-related threat in each season and scenario analyzed. Even with lower species richness, the 3.0{degrees}C scenario had higher risk for species and groups in both seasons. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats will affect over 88% of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% species facing three or more threats. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US. Across the threats included here, extreme weather events have the most significant influence on risk and the most extensive spatial coverage. Urbanization and sea level rise will also have disproportionate impacts on species relative to the area they cover. By incorporating threats into predictions of climate change impacts, this assessment provides a comprehensive picture of how climate change will affect birds and the places they need.

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Bateman, B. L., Taylor, L., Wilsey, C., Wu, J., LeBaron, G. S., Langham, G.. 2019-10-10. Risk to North American Birds from Climate Change-Related Threats. https://doi.org/10.1101/798694

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