Spatial simulation of co-designed land-cover change scenarios in New England: Alternative futures and their consequences for conservation priorities

Abstract

To help prepare for an uncertain future, planners and scientists often engage with stakeholders to co-design alternative scenarios of land-use change. Methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations that characterize the future landscape condition are needed to understand consequences of the scenarios while maintaining the legitimacy of the process. We use the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study to demonstrate a transparent method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) change and for understanding the major drivers of land-use change and diversity of plausible scenarios and the consequences of alternative land-use pathways for conservation priorities. The NELF project co-designed four narrative scenarios that contrast with a Recent Trends scenario that projects a continuation of observed changes across the 18-million-hectare region during the past 20 years. Here, we (1) describe the process and utility of translating qualitative scenarios into spatial simulations using a dynamic cellular land change model; (2) evaluate the outcomes of the scenarios in terms of the differences in the LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other; (3) compare the fate of forests within key areas of concern to the stakeholders; and (4) describe how a user-inspired outreach tool was developed to make the simulations and analyses accessible to diverse users. The four alternative scenarios populate a quadrant of future conditions that crosses high to low natural resource planning and innovation with local to global socio-economic connectedness. The associated simulations are strongly divergent in terms of the amount of LULC change and the spatial pattern of change. Features of the simulations can be linked back to the original storylines. Among the scenarios there is a fivefold difference in the amount of high-density development, and a twofold difference in the amount of protected land. Overall, the rate of LULC change has a greater influence on forestlands of concern to the stakeholders than does the spatial configuration. The simulated scenarios have been integrated into an online mapping tool that was designed via a user-engagement process to meet the needs of diverse stakeholders who are interested the future of the land and in using future scenarios to guide land use planning and conservation priorities.