Biology subjects

Duveneck, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Duveneck, M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Does land use matter? Carbon consequences of alternative land use futures in New England

Globally, forests play an important role in climate change mitigation. However, land-use impacts the ability of forests to sequester and store carbon. Here we quantify the impacts of five divergent future land-use scenarios on aboveground forest carbon stocks and fluxes throughout New England. These scenarios, four co-designed with stakeholders from throughout the region and the fifth a continuation of recent trends in land use, were simulated by coupling a land cover change model with a mechanistic forest growth model to produce estimates of aboveground carbon over 50 years. Future carbon removed through harvesting and development was tracked using a standard carbon accounting methodology, modified to fit our modeling framework. Of the simulated changes in land use, changes in harvesting had the most profound and immediate impacts on carbon stocks and fluxes. In one of the future land-use scenarios including a rapid expansion of harvesting for biomass energy, this changed New Englands forests from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source in 2060. Also in these simulations, relatively small reductions in harvest intensities (e.g., 10% reduction), coupled with an increased percent of wood going into longer-term storage, led to substantial reductions in net carbon emissions (909 MMtCO2eq) as compared to a continuation of recent trends in land use. However, these projected gains in carbon storage and reduction in emissions from less intense harvesting regimes can only be realized if it is paired with a reduction in the consumption of the timber products, and their replacements, that otherwise would result in additional emissions from leakage and substitution.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Spatial simulation of co-designed land-cover change scenarios in New England: Alternative futures and their consequences for conservation priorities

To help prepare for an uncertain future, planners and scientists often engage with stakeholders to co-design alternative scenarios of land-use change. Methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations that characterize the future landscape condition are needed to understand consequences of the scenarios while maintaining the legitimacy of the process. We use the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study to demonstrate a transparent method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) change and for understanding the major drivers of land-use change and diversity of plausible scenarios and the consequences of alternative land-use pathways for conservation priorities. The NELF project co-designed four narrative scenarios that contrast with a Recent Trends scenario that projects a continuation of observed changes across the 18-million-hectare region during the past 20 years. Here, we (1) describe the process and utility of translating qualitative scenarios into spatial simulations using a dynamic cellular land change model; (2) evaluate the outcomes of the scenarios in terms of the differences in the LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other; (3) compare the fate of forests within key areas of concern to the stakeholders; and (4) describe how a user-inspired outreach tool was developed to make the simulations and analyses accessible to diverse users. The four alternative scenarios populate a quadrant of future conditions that crosses high to low natural resource planning and innovation with local to global socio-economic connectedness. The associated simulations are strongly divergent in terms of the amount of LULC change and the spatial pattern of change. Features of the simulations can be linked back to the original storylines. Among the scenarios there is a fivefold difference in the amount of high-density development, and a twofold difference in the amount of protected land. Overall, the rate of LULC change has a greater influence on forestlands of concern to the stakeholders than does the spatial configuration. The simulated scenarios have been integrated into an online mapping tool that was designed via a user-engagement process to meet the needs of diverse stakeholders who are interested the future of the land and in using future scenarios to guide land use planning and conservation priorities.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Potential impacts of insect-induced harvests in the mixed forests of New England

Forest insects and pathogens (FIPs) have significant impacts on U.S. forests, each year affecting an area nearly three times the area of wildfires and timber harvesting combined. We surveyed family forest owners (FFOs) in the northeastern U.S. and 84% of respondents indicated they would harvest in at least one of the presented FIP infestation scenarios. This harvest response represents a potentially significant shift in the timing, extent, and species selection of harvesting in the Northeast. Here we used the landowner survey, regional forest inventory data, and characteristics of the emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) invasion to examine the potential for a rapidly spreading FIP to alter harvest regimes and affect regional forest conditions. Twenty-five percent of the FFO parcels in the Connecticut River Watershed in New England are likely to be harvested in response to EAB within 10 years. This prediction represents an increase in harvest frequencies, from 2.9%/yr (historically) to 3.7%/yr, on FFO woodlands. At typical harvest intensities, this would result in 13% of the total aboveground biomass removed through these harvests, with 81% of that biomass from species other than ash, creating a forest disturbance that is over twice the magnitude of the disturbance from EAB alone.

ecology↗