Assessing 42 inflammatory markers in 321 control subjects and 887 major depressive disorder cases: BMI and other confounders and overall predictive ability for current depression

Powell, T. R.; Gaspar, H. A.; Chung, R.; Keohane, A.; Gunasinghe, C.; Uher, R.; Aitchison, K. J.; Souery, D.; Mors, O.; Maier, W.; Zobel, A.; Rietschel, M.; Henigsberg, N.; Dernovsek, M. Z.; Hauser, J.; Frissa, S.; Goodwin, L.; Hotopf, M.; Hatch, S. L.; Collier, D. A.; Wang, H.; Breen, G.

doi:10.1101/327239

Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.1101/327239

Assessing 42 inflammatory markers in 321 control subjects and 887 major depressive disorder cases: BMI and other confounders and overall predictive ability for current depression

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Inflammatory markers such as cytokines represent potential biomarkers for major depressive disorder (MDD). Many, generally small studies have examined the role of single markers and found significant associations. We assessed 42 inflammatory markers, namely cytokines, in the blood of 321 control subjects and 887 MDD cases. We tested whether individual inflammatory marker levels were significantly affected by MDD case/control status, current episode, or current depression severity, co-varying for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking, current antidepressant use, ethnicity, assay batch and study effects. We further used machine learning algorithms to investigate if we could use our data to blindly discriminate MDD patients, or those in a current episode. We found broad and powerful influences of confounding factors on log-protein levels. Notably, IL-6 levels were very strongly influenced by BMI (p = 1.37 x 10-43, variance explained = 18%), while Interleukin-16 was the most significant predictor of current depressive episode (p = 0.003, variance explained = 0.9%, q < 0.1). No single inflammatory marker predicted MDD case/control status when a subject was not in a depressed episode, nor did any predict depression severity. Machine learning results revealed that using inflammatory marker data with clinical confounder information significantly increased precision for differentiating MDD patients who were in an episode. To conclude, a wide panel of inflammatory markers alongside clinical information may aid in predicting the onset of symptoms, but no single inflammatory protein is likely to represent a clinically useful biomarker for MDD diagnosis or prognosis. We note that the potential influence of physical health related and population stratification related confounders on inflammatory biomarker studies in psychiatry is considerable.

Explore related subjects

neuroscience Preprint

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Powell, T. R., Gaspar, H. A., Chung, R., Keohane, A., Gunasinghe, C., Uher, R., Aitchison, K. J., Souery, D., Mors, O., Maier, W., Zobel, A., Rietschel, M., Henigsberg, N., Dernovsek, M. Z., Hauser, J., Frissa, S., Goodwin, L., Hotopf, M., Hatch, S. L., Collier, D. A., Wang, H., Breen, G.. 2018-05-21. Assessing 42 inflammatory markers in 321 control subjects and 887 major depressive disorder cases: BMI and other confounders and overall predictive ability for current depression. https://doi.org/10.1101/327239

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Cell Types in Describing Neuronal Physiological Features

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) captures detailed gene expression profiles at scale, while patch-clamp recordings measure intrinsic neuronal electrophysiological properties. Modeling the relations between these two modalities remains a challenge. Here, we compare how well electrophysiological features can be predicted by traditional transcriptomic cell type classification, representations derived from a foundational model (scGPT) pretrained on large-scale scRNA-seq datasets, ion channel-coding genes, and highly variable genes. Using paired transcriptomic and electrophysiological patch-sequencing data from 495 human neurons from neurosurgical tissue, we find that cluster-level cell type representations consistently outperform highly variable gene selection, ion channel gene selection, and context-enriched scGPT embeddings. Notably, performance varies across model architectures and initializations, and the best results are obtained by combining the outputs of separate cell type and scGPT-based models. Together, these findings suggest that traditional discrete cellular classification is highly effective in predicting physiological features. For maximum performance it can be complemented by pretrained transformer models.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2026

A nonlinear inhibition pathway underlying cortical responses to tuned holographic optogenetic perturbations

Optogenetics enables causal manipulation of cortical activity. Perturbation responses can be counterintuitive due to network interactions, making theory essential for predicting them. Existing approaches often rely on linear approximations, which fail for many biologically relevant perturbations. Here we develop a nonlinear theory of responses to holographic perturbations in cell-type-specific recurrent networks with structured connectivity. We fit a nonlinear model to mouse V1 data, which shows cotuned-ensemble suppression: perturbing spatially clustered neurons with similar preferred orientations yields markedly stronger short-range suppression than perturbing untuned ensembles. We show that cotuned-ensemble suppression arises from a feature-tuned, nonlinear inhibition pathway implicating somatostatin-positive (SST) interneurons. The theory predicts that cotuned ensembles suppress parvalbumin-positive (PV) neurons but facilitate SST neurons, and links the degree of cotuned-ensemble suppression or facilitation to the variance of the SST response. This framework identifies mechanisms by which nonlinear inhibition sculpts cortical dynamics and establishes a predictive basis for targeted optogenetic interventions.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2026

Proteomic signatures of APOE ε4 across human tissues and cell types in Alzheimers disease

The apolipoprotein E {varepsilon}4 (APOE {varepsilon}4) allele is the strongest genetic risk factor for late-onset Alzheimers disease (AD). However, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear. This study included 1691 participants from the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP), 1226 participants from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership - Alzheimers Disease (AMP-AD) Diverse Cohorts Study, and 735 participants from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). To characterise APOE {varepsilon}4 molecular effects, we analysed proteomic data from plasma, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived astrocytes and neurons, as well as transcriptomic and proteomic data from multiple brain regions. The association of APOE {varepsilon}4 with AD neuropathology was also examined. APOE {varepsilon}4 carriers shared a plasma proteomic signature enriched for immune processes, irrespective of AD diagnosis. A machine learning classifier trained on this signature discriminated APOE {varepsilon}4 carriers from non-carriers in an independent cohort using CSF proteomics. APOE {varepsilon}4 carriage was associated with higher Braak stages and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimers Disease (CERAD) score. However, only limited APOE {varepsilon}4-associated transcriptomic and proteomic changes were observed in bulk brain tissue, with poor cross-layer concordance. Proteomic analyses of iPSC-derived astrocytes and neurons further revealed cell-type-specific APOE {varepsilon}4-associated changes. APOE {varepsilon}4 is associated with a consistent proteomic signature across plasma and CSF. Its molecular effects in the brain differ across cell types, brain regions and molecular layers. These findings support the need for cell-type-resolved multi-omic studies to elucidate how APOE {varepsilon}4 confers AD risk.

neuroscience↗