Population-level migration modeling of North American birds through data integration with BirdFlow

Abstract

BackgroundAccurate information on population-level movements of migratory animals is essential for understanding migration and for designing effective conservation strategies in a changing world. Yet such information remains scarce for most migratory species due to the effort and expense needed to collect data across their full distribution ranges. BirdFlow is a probabilistic modeling framework that infers population-level movements from weekly species distribution maps produced by the participatory science project eBird. However, BirdFlow models have only been tuned for a handful of species using high-resolution individual tracking data, which is not available for most migratory species. MethodsHere, we introduce a general tuning and evaluation framework for BirdFlow that enables the first large-scale integration of distributional and individual-level data to infer animal movement across continents and hundreds of migratory species, eliminating reliance on any single individual-tracking data source. By generalizing the BirdFlow model parametrization, we enable tuning and validation using multiple complementary data sources, including GPS tracks, banding recoveries, and radio telemetry data from the Motus Wildlife Tracking System. We investigate the efficacy of this approach by (1) investigating predictive performance compared to null models; (2) validating the biological plausibility of BirdFlow models by comparing movement properties such as route straightness, number of stopovers, and migration speed between model-generated routes and real movement tracks; and (3) comparing the performance of models tuned on species-specific movement data to models tuned using hyperparameters transferred from other species. ResultsOur results show that BirdFlow models produced by the new tuning framework achieve biologically realistic performance, even for prediction horizons of thousands of kilometers and several months. When species-specific data are unavailable, models can still be tuned using data from other phylogenetically adjacent species to achieve improved performance. ConclusionsBy integrating eBird Status & Trends abundance surfaces with data from banding recaptures, radio telemetry, and GPS tracking, we scale BirdFlow model to 153 North American migratory species, representing the first collection of continental-scale population-level movement and forecasting models. Species-specific tuning improves population-level movement forecasts, while taxonomically informed hyperparameter transfer supports the modeling of data-limited species. Overall, our work offers a foundation for more accurate predictions across hundreds of species for research in ecology and conservation, disease surveillance, aviation, and public outreach.