How fast can PPRV spread? Analyzing the results of an experimental PPRV infection of goats equipped with Ultra-WideBand sensors

Abstract

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious disease affecting goats and sheep. The speed and extent of its spread depend on contact patterns and the viruss intrinsic characteristics. To estimate propagation speed and the role of inter-individual patterns, we analyzed the results of a series of 12 experimental infections conducted in five different sessions, involving six or seven goats in a secured stable. In each experiment, one animal was inoculated with the PPR strain and placed in contact with the other naive animals. All the animals were equipped with Ultra-WideBand sensors to collect inter-individual distance data. The duration of this phase varied from 1 to 48 hours across the experiments. Afterwards, the animals were isolated and monitored for three to five weeks. Temperature, symptoms, nasal and ocular discharges, and blood samples were routinely collected to detect the presence of the virus. Using Bayesian statistical analysis, data on inter-individual distances, and health status were analyzed to estimate R0, the incubation period, and PPRV transmissibility. The latter was used to estimate the exposure period, i.e., the minimum amount of time for a naive animal to become infected. Of the 70 naive animals exposed to the virus, 18 were infected. R0 was estimated to be around 4.3 or 8.6, depending on the infectious period value. The incubation period was estimated to be around 16.3 days (95% CI: 12.6-23.3 days). The exposure time varies greatly depending on the density, ranging from nearly two days at low density to around four hours at high density. Large gatherings of animals, such as at livestock markets, could greatly facilitate the spread of PPRV. Furthermore, the long incubation period coupled with livestock mobility could favor the virus geographical dissemination on a large scale. Author summaryPPR is an infectious disease that is transmitted directly and affects goats and sheep. Since its discovery in the Ivory Coast in 1942, the PPR virus has spread worldwide, reaching China in 2010 and Europe in 2018. Despite the fact that PPR poses a huge threat to the lives of small ruminants and the livelihoods of smallholders, more research is needed into its epidemic potential and transmission speed. Here, we used a combined approach of experimental infections and contact tracing with UWB devices to estimate the probability of transmission of a specific PPRV strain, and to determine the minimum exposure time required for an animal to become infected. Our results indicate that reducing the average distance between animals by a factor of four could reduce exposure time tenfold, indicating a much higher risk for high-density herds compared to roaming ones. Coupled with new estimates of R0 and incubation time inferred from data analysis, our work sheds light on the danger posed by PPR. These informations are valuable to veterinarians and policymakers, to better assess the risk of introduction, spread, and impact of PPR, to implement timely and effective interventions.