A Multi-Model Ensemble Reveals Soil Carbon Gains from Regenerative Practices in the U.S. Midwest Cropland

Abstract

Process-based cropping systems models (CSMs) are key components of measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MMRV) frameworks of carbon markets, but their application suffers from model-specific differences that keep any one model from working well across all combinations of soils, climates, crops, and agronomic practices at varying scales. Multi-model ensemble (MME), successfully used to quantify soil, management and climate impact on crop productivity, provide an opportunity to better estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) outcomes for agronomic practices that have the potential to mitigate SOC loss at scale. We used an MME across 46 million hectares of US Midwest cropland at a resolution of 4- km2 to assess the aggregate ability of different regenerative practices to sequester SOC at this scale compared to their dynamic baselines. MME was validated with long-term experimental data and compared to its constituent CSMs, showing greater accuracy and lower uncertainty. The results show that adopting no-till combined with cover crops increased SOC stocks by 0.36 {+/-} 0.12 Mg ha-1 yr-1 aggregated across the entire U.S. Midwest cropland. At the regional scale, this corresponds to a net SOC gain of 16.4 Tg C yr-1 compared to business-as-usual baselines. These benefits are approximately halved when each management change is practiced individually, and the modest gains are only fully realized when continued over the long-term in soils with low initial carbon stock. Results demonstrate the power of MMEs run at high resolution for providing robust estimates of environmental outcomes following agricultural practice change, and for pinpointing locations for most effective intervention. This approach can alleviate many producer carbon market participation barriers and help address market issues while ultimately supporting large-scale regenerative agriculture initiatives.