Four centuries of commercial whaling eroded 11,000 years of population stability in bowhead whales

Abstract

The bowhead whale, an Arctic endemic, was heavily overexploited during commercial whaling between the 16th-20th centuries1. Current climate warming, with Arctic amplification of average global temperatures, poses a new threat to the species2. Assessing the vulnerability of bowhead whales to near-future predictions of climate change remains challenging, due to lacking data on population dynamics prior to commercial whaling and responses to past climatic change. Here, we integrate palaeogenomics and stable isotope ({delta}13C and{delta} 15N) analysis of 201 bowhead whale fossils from the Atlantic Arctic with palaeoclimate and ecological modelling based on 823 radiocarbon dated fossils, 151 of which are new to this study. We find long-term resilience of bowhead whales to Holocene environmental perturbations, with no obvious changes in genetic diversity or population structure, despite large environmental shifts and centuries of whaling by Indigenous peoples prior to commercial harvests. Leveraging our empirical data, we simulated a time-series model to quantify population losses associated with commercial whaling. Our results indicate that commercial exploitation induced population subdivision and losses of genetic diversity that are yet to be fully realised; declines in genetic diversity will continue, even without future population size reductions, compromising the species resilience to near-future predictions of Arctic warming.