Biology subjects

Fordham, D. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Fordham, D. A..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Tracing the drivers of range-wide bowhead whale genomic structure and diversity

Understanding how past environmental and anthropogenic factors shaped contemporary genetic patterns is essential for assessing the vulnerability of species in the face of ongoing climate change. The bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) - the only baleen whale found in the Arctic year-round - has a strong association with sea ice, long history of human exploitation, and a circumpolar distribution, making it a valuable model for investigating how these factors have shaped population structure in the marine Arctic. We analysed both nuclear and mitochondrial genomes from bowhead whale individuals sampled across the species circumpolar range, encompassing all four recognized management stocks. Our results reveal three not four genetically differentiated populations: the Sea of Okhotsk stock; the East Greenland-Svalbard-Barents Sea stock; and a combined population containing the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas and East Canada-West Greenland stocks. We utilised ecological niche modeling and bowhead whale telemetry data to model stock connectivity over the past 11,700 years, and identify past habitat connectivity as a key driver of current population structure. Despite centuries of intensive commercial whaling, the three bowhead whale populations exhibit little-to-no evidence of recent inbreeding and retain high genetic diversity relative to other mammalian species. The lowest genetic diversity, most inbreeding, and highest realised genetic load being in the Sea of Okhotsk population. Collectively, our findings shed light on the recent population history and dynamics of bowhead whales, and offer valuable baseline data on present-day genetic structure and diversity to support effective conservation and management strategies.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

CoralBleachRisk- Global projections of coral bleaching risk in the 21st century

Timing, duration, and severity of marine heatwaves are changing rapidly in response to anthropogenic climate change, thereby increasing the frequency of coral bleaching events. Mass coral bleaching events occur because of cumulative heat stress, which is commonly quantified through Degree Heating Weeks (DHW). Here we introduce CoralBleachRisk, a daily-resolution global dataset that characterises sea surface temperatures, heat stress anomalies, and the timing, duration, and magnitude of severe coral bleaching conditions from the recent past (1985) to the future (2100) under three contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Our projections are downscaled to a 0.5{degrees} resolution (~50km), bias-corrected and validated using remotely sensed data of sea surface temperatures and a global dataset of historical coral bleaching events. An accompanying online software tool allows non-specialist users to access aggregated metrics of coral bleaching risk and generate time series projections of coral vulnerability for Earths coral reefs. More broadly, our dataset enables regional to global comparisons of future trends in severe coral bleaching risk and the identification of potential climate refugia for corals.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Four centuries of commercial whaling eroded 11,000 years of population stability in bowhead whales

The bowhead whale, an Arctic endemic, was heavily overexploited during commercial whaling between the 16th-20th centuries1. Current climate warming, with Arctic amplification of average global temperatures, poses a new threat to the species2. Assessing the vulnerability of bowhead whales to near-future predictions of climate change remains challenging, due to lacking data on population dynamics prior to commercial whaling and responses to past climatic change. Here, we integrate palaeogenomics and stable isotope ({delta}13C and{delta} 15N) analysis of 201 bowhead whale fossils from the Atlantic Arctic with palaeoclimate and ecological modelling based on 823 radiocarbon dated fossils, 151 of which are new to this study. We find long-term resilience of bowhead whales to Holocene environmental perturbations, with no obvious changes in genetic diversity or population structure, despite large environmental shifts and centuries of whaling by Indigenous peoples prior to commercial harvests. Leveraging our empirical data, we simulated a time-series model to quantify population losses associated with commercial whaling. Our results indicate that commercial exploitation induced population subdivision and losses of genetic diversity that are yet to be fully realised; declines in genetic diversity will continue, even without future population size reductions, compromising the species resilience to near-future predictions of Arctic warming.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Reconstructing colonization dynamics to establish how human activities transformed island biodiversity

AimThe drivers and dynamics of initial human migrations across individual islands and archipelagos are poorly understood, affecting assessments of human-modification of island biodiversity. Here, we describe and test a process-explicit approach for reconstructing human arrival and expansion on islands, which combines archaeological and climate records with high-resolution spatial population models. Using Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand as an example, we show that our new method can generate information crucial for assessing how humans affected biodiversity on islands. InnovationThe transition of islands from prehuman to human dominated ecosystems has typically been assessed by comparing biodiversity before and after time of first arrival, without considering the potential importance of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the human expansion event. Our new approach, which uses pattern-oriented modelling methods to combine inferences of human colonisation dynamics from dated archaeological material with spatially explicit population models, produces validated reconstructions of the pattern and pace of human migration across islands at high spatiotemporal resolutions. From these reconstructions, demographic and environmental drivers of human colonization can be identified, and the role that people had on biodiversity established. Using this technique, we show that closely reconciling inferences of Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand requires there to have been a single founding population of approximately 500 people, arriving between 1233 and 1257 AD, settling multiple areas, and expanding quickly over both North and South islands. The resultant maps of M[a]ori colonisation dynamics provide new opportunities to better determine how human activities transformed biodiversity of New Zealand in space and time. Main conclusionsProcess-explicit models can reconstruct human migration across large islands, producing validated, high resolution spatiotemporal projections of human occupancy and abundance that account for dispersal and population dynamics. This modelling framework should prove effective across any islands and archipelagos where climate and archaeological records are available.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modelling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected the evolutionary ecology of polar bears around Greenland. We show that throughout the last [~]11,000 years, Greenlandic polar bears have been heavily influenced by changes in sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover. Most notable are major reductions in effective population size at the beginning of the Holocene and during the Holocene Thermal Maximum [~]6 kya, which coincide with increases in annual mean SST, reduction in sea-ice covers, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northwards. Furthermore, we show how individuals sampled from west and east Greenland are genetically, morphologically, and ecologically distinct. We find bears sampled in west Greenland to be larger, more genetically diverse and have diets dominated by ringed seals, whereas bears from east Greenland are smaller and less diverse with more varied diets, putatively driven by regional biotic differences. Taken together, we provide novel insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change, and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants. TeaserMultivariate investigations of the environments role in the evolutionary ecology of Greenlandic polar bears.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Humans hastened the range collapse and extinction of woolly mammoth

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early-stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

ecology↗