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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2023.12.03.569807

Effects of greening-induced warming and cooling on tree phenology in temperate and boreal forests

Guo, J.·Wang, J.·Qiao, Y.·Smith, N. G.·Liu, Z.·Zhang, R.·Chen, X.·Wu, C.·Chen, L.
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Abstract

Tree phenology, periodic biological events in trees, is highly sensitive to climate change. It has been reported that forest greening can influence the local climate by altering the seasonal surface energy budget. However, tree phenological responses to forest greening remains poorly understood at large spatial scales. Combining remote-sensing derived phenological and leaf area indices since 2001, herein we show that forest greening led to earlier spring (-1.05 {+/-} 0.17 d) and autumn phenology (-1.95 {+/-} 0.14 d) in temperate and boreal forests. Our results show that forest greening in winter and spring decreased surface albedo and thus resulted in biophysical warming that caused earlier spring leaf phenology. In contrast, forest greening in summer and autumn triggered biophysical cooling by enhancing evapotranspiration, which led to earlier autumn leaf phenology. These findings suggest that forest greening could significantly alter tree phenology through seasonal biophysical impacts. Therefore, it is essential to incorporate these complicated biophysical impacts of greening into tree phenology models to accurately predict future shifts in tree phenology under future climate change.

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Guo, J., Wang, J., Qiao, Y., Smith, N. G., Liu, Z., Zhang, R., Chen, X., Wu, C., Chen, L.. 2023-12-05. Effects of greening-induced warming and cooling on tree phenology in temperate and boreal forests. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.03.569807

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