Widespread decline in plant diversity across six decades

Abstract

Based on plant occurrence data covering all parts of Germany, we investigated changes in the distribution of 2146 plant species between 1960 and 2017. We analyzed 29 million occurrence records over an area of [~]350.000 km2 on a 5 x 5 km grid using temporal and spatio-temporal models and accounting for sampling bias. Since the 1960s, more than 70% of investigated plant species showed significant declines in nation-wide occurrence. Archaeophytes (species introduced before 1492) most strongly declined but also native plant species experienced severe declines. In contrast, neophytes (species introduced after 1492) increased in their nation-wide occurrence but not homogeneously throughout the country. Our analysis suggests that the strongest declines in native species already happened in the 1960s-80s, a time frame in which usually few data exist. Increases in neophytic species were strongest in the 1990s and 2010s. Overall, the increase in neophytes did not compensate for the loss of other species, resulting in a decrease in mean grid-cell species-richness of -1.9% per decade. The decline in plant biodiversity is a widespread phenomenon occurring in different habitats and geographic regions. It is likely that this decline has major repercussions on ecosystem functioning and overall biodiversity, potentially with cascading effects across trophic levels. The approach used in this study is transferable to large-scale trend analyses using heterogeneous occurrence data.