Inferring a qualitative contact rate index of uncertain epidemics

Abstract

We will inevitably face new epidemic outbreaks where the mechanisms of transmission are still uncertain, making it difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Thus we present a novel algorithm that qualitatively predicts the start, relative magnitude and decline of uncertain epidemic outbreaks, requiring to know only a few of its \\macroscopic\" parameters. The algorithm is based on estimating exactly the time-varying contact rate of a canonical but time-varying Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model parametrized to the particular outbreak. The algorithm can also be extended to other canonical epidemic models. Even if dynamics of the outbreak deviates significantly from the underlying epidemic model, we show the predictions of the algorithm remain robust. We validated our algorithm using real time-series data of measles, dengue and the current zika outbreak, comparing its performance to existing algorithms that also use a few macroscopic parameters (e.g., those estimating reproductive numbers) and to those using a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of the epidemic outbreak. We show our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms using a few macroscopic parameters, providing an informative qualitative evaluation of the outbreak.