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Wille, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Wille, M..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Establishment of an avian influenza surveillance program in Australia's largest river basin

To-date Australia has had mostly coastal occurrences in a small but growing number of species of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b. The potential impacts of expected spread are the focus of significant preparation activities. Here we report on early surveillance undertaken in 2025-26 in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia's largest river system, which contains internationally important wetlands that support large multi-species aggregations of waterbirds vulnerable to mass mortality. We detected two low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of Australian origin in wild waterbirds. Ongoing surveillance will aid in early detection and rapid response in the case of a major inland outbreak of H5N1.

microbiology↗

Forecasting high pathogenicity avian influenza with a stochastic mechanistic model: performance and lessons for Australia

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has caused a global panzootic with unprecedented impacts on wildlife and livestock, making evidence-based disease mitigation and outbreak response critical. In this paper, we describe a spatiotemporal mechanistic model of infectious disease dynamics developed for the HPAI Modelling Challenge and its implications for forecasting and policy in Australia. To emulate emergency response conditions, we adapted an existing model for rapid deployment rather than developing a bespoke model. We refined the model iteratively across the challenge to better analyse the provided outbreak data. Throughout the challenge, we accurately forecast temporal trends and local outbreak spread, but could not predict rarer, long-distance dispersal events. The challenge ended before HPAI H5N1 was first detected in Australia (June 2026), providing a critical opportunity to test our response modelling readiness for an incursion in wildlife and potential spillover into commercial poultry. Our experience identifies three key considerations for Australia's HPAI H5N1 preparedness: targeted enhancements to our model to improve forecast precision and enable scenario-based policy evaluation; the critical value of pre-existing modelling infrastructure for rapid emergency response; and sustained collaboration between research and policy institutions to align modelling capabilities with outbreak response requirements.

bioinformatics↗

Migratory bird and marine mammal surveillance fails to find evidence for an HPAI H5N1 2.3.4.4b incursion into Australia in 2025

The panzootic caused by high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has been devastating for animals, globally. Despite global spread, the virus remains absent in Oceania. Herein we report the results of our fourth year of enhanced migratory bird surveillance, coinciding with the spring migration of wild birds in 2025; none of the 847 migratory wild birds or 38 marine mammals were positive for HPAI H5N1, although we did detect LPAI. Surveillance remains a critical tool for HPAI H5N1 response, with early detection and rapid response being critical to mitigate the impacts of this virus on animal, environment and human health.

microbiology↗

Skuas as sentinels of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 on the Antarctic Peninsula in the 2024/2025 austral summer

Despite Antarcticas geographic isolation, the first incursion of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was detected in the 2023/24 austral summer. Surveillance for HPAI H5N1 in Antarctica remains patchy due to logistical, financial, and infrastructure challenges, with many suspected cases remaining unconfirmed, and few viral genomes sequences available to date. Through the 2024/25 austral summer we undertook five sampling expeditions to the South Shetland Islands and Antarctic Peninsula facilitated by cruise ships/operators. Across more than 500 faecal environmental samples collected from apparently healthy penguins and marine mammals, we found no detectable evidence of HPAI H5N1. However, HPAI H5N1 was detected in all but one of the skua carcasses sampled, which, in most cases, were found within meters of penguin sub-colonies. All HPAI H5N1 viral genomes sequences from skuas on the Antarctic Peninsula fell within a single lineage, which included those genomes from skuas sampled in the 2024/25 season from the South Shetland Islands. Genomes were in a different clade to those from the Antarctic Peninsula collected in the 2023/24 austral summer. Our results confirm although the prevalence may be low, HPAI H5N1 is established in Antarctica, emphasizing the need for ongoing surveillance to monitor and mitigate threats to wildlife, even in the planets most isolated regions.

microbiology↗

Foraging ecology drives viral community structure in New Zealand's aquatic birds

Wild migratory birds play a major role in the global spread of viruses, yet the diversity, host range and transmission patterns of viruses harboured by migratory species in Aotearoa/New Zealand remain largely unknown. This knowledge gap is critical given New Zealands position along major migratory flyways spanning Oceania, Antarctica and east Asia, where understanding viral diversity is key to assessing the risk of viral introductions such as highly pathogenic avian influenza virus and viral dispersal across these regions. To address this, we conducted the first large-scale metatranscriptomic survey of wild birds from New Zealand and its subantarctic islands, collecting 1,348 samples from 31 host species spanning four avian orders. We identified 118 avian viruses from 17 families, including 107 novel species, greatly expanding our knowledge of avian viral diversity. Viral communities differed significantly by host order and foraging behaviour, with scavenger birds harbouring more diverse viromes than non-scavengers. Although no HPAI subtypes were detected, we recovered a low-pathogenic avian influenza A/H1N9 virus from red knots (Calidris canutus) and a divergent tobanivirus from Auckland Island teal (Anas aucklandica), the first putative avian member of the Tobaniviridae. Notably, we detected 12 mammalian-associated viruses, primarily in scavenger birds, including Hedgehog hepatovirus, Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2, and sea lion astroviruses, with mammalian host reads confirming their dietary origin. This study establishes the first virome baseline for New Zealands migratory birds, highlighting the ecological role of foraging in shaping viral communities and improving regional preparedness for HPAI and other emerging avian pathogens.

microbiology↗

Ecology of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus H7 in wild birds in south-eastern Australia prior to emergence of high pathogenicity avian influenza H7 in poultry

Adding to the global burden of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, an unprecedented five HPAI H7 outbreaks occurred globally in 2024. Of these, three occurred in southeast Australia, with the independent emergence of HPAI H7N9, H7N8, and H7N3, resulting in the destruction of 2 million poultry. Historical data demonstrates that H7 outbreaks in Australia do not occur randomly, rather, there is a strong association between the timing of the previous H7 outbreaks and rainfall patterns in southeastern Australia. We aimed to address a hypothesis wherein prior to H7 outbreaks in poultry, there was a detectable change in H7 prevalence and/or virus diversity in wild bird populations. We addressed this using virological and serological surveillance data generated from multiple programs. Despite the collection of thousands of samples, there was only weak evidence to support our hypothesis, which provides strong incentive to evaluate current surveillance approaches for the purposes of risk prediction. However, in alignment with a previous analysis, there is strong support for a relationship between H7 outbreak probability and rainfall patterns across southeast Australia. Overall, improved understanding of the ecology and evolution of H5 and H7 viruses in wild bird reservoirs is pivotal to global disease preparedness and response.

microbiology↗

Surveillance of migratory shorebirds and seabirds in 2024 in Australia reveals incursions of a diversity of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses, but not high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1

The current panzootic of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has been catastrophic for wildlife, and following a significant sweep, clade 2.3.4.4b is found in every region aside from Oceania. Herein, we report the results of our third year of targeted surveillance of incoming migratory seabirds and shorebirds into Australia. We did not find evidence of HPAI H5N1 in any of the birds tested, and there were no reports of HPAI H5N1 in wildlife tested through other surveillance schemes in 2024. Unlike previous years, we detected a diversity of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in shorebirds. Through phylogenetic analysis we revealed that the H3N7 and H4N7 viruses recovered from Red-necked Stints were complex mosaic viruses, comprising segments of Eurasian, Australian shorebird, and Australian waterfowl segments. A H1N7 virus detected comprised a wholly Eurasian introduction, confirming this route for avian influenza viruses into Australian ecosystems. These results provide further evidence for the key role of long-distance migratory shorebirds in introducing novel LPAI viruses into Oceania. While our focus on northern migration routes remained appropriate for HPAI H5N1 surveillance in 2024, the continued spread of HPAI H5N1 to sub-Antarctic Islands demands consideration of a potential southern incursion route for Oceania in future.

microbiology↗

Evaluating sampling strategies for the detection of avian influenza viruses in the environment

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses threaten humans, livestock and wildlife, highlighting the urgent need for early warning surveillance. Environmental RNA (eRNA) monitoring provides a safer, cost-effective and non-invasive alternative to direct pathogen testing, yet the effectiveness of different sample types for avian influenza viruses (AIVs) is unclear. We evaluated four eRNA-based sampling methods in urban waterfowl ponds over approximately one year. All methods combined with RT-qPCR and metagenomic sequencing detected AIV, but detections were asynchronous, likely reflecting low viral concentrations or detection limits. These results highlight both the promise and the current limitations of eRNA-based AIV surveillance. Graphic abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=156 SRC="FIGDIR/small/677014v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (31K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@e8e189org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@12f17fforg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d09f5forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8f55fd_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

microbiology↗

Impacts of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 2.3.4.4b south of the Antarctic Circle

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 2.3.4.4b poses a substantial conservation threat to ecosystems, populations, and species globally, with its continued spread into new regions increasing concern for potential ecological consequences. During surveys in February - March 2025, we confirmed the viruss presence at the southern extent of its known range along the Western Antarctic Peninsula, with recorded mortalities in South Polar Skuas Stercorarius maccormicki on distinct islands in Marguerite Bay, as well as one confirmed and one suspected case in Kelp Gulls Larus dominicanus. At the time of sampling, no evidence of infection was observed in other seabird or mammal species. Consistent with previous global reports, skuas - here, South Polar Skuas - appear particularly vulnerable, yet broader impacts on the local seabird and mammal community remain unclear. Additionally, our use of rapid antigen tests (VDRG(R) AIV Ag Rapid kit 2.0 - Median Diagnostics) in the field demonstrated their potential utility for real-time surveillance, though false negatives (10%) highlight limitations in test sensitivity. These findings contribute to a growing understanding of the impacts of HPAI H5N1 2.3.4.4b outbreaks on Antarctic species and populations, and will inform continued monitoring, conservation strategies, and biosecurity measures in response to the viruss ongoing spread.

ecology↗

Avian influenza virus surveillance across New Zealand and its subantarctic islands detects H1N9 in migratory shorebirds, but not 2.3.4.4b HPAI H5N1

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus has never been detected in New Zealand. The potential impact of this virus on New Zealands wild birds would be catastrophic. To expand our knowledge of avian influenza viruses across New Zealand, we sampled wild aquatic birds from New Zealand, its outer islands and its subantarctic territories. Metatranscriptomic analysis of 700 individuals spanning 33 species revealed no detection of HPAI during the annual 2023-2024 migration. A single detection of H1N9 in red knots (Calidris canutus) was noted. This study provides a baseline for expanding avian influenza virus monitoring in New Zealand.

microbiology↗

Triton-X 100-treated virus-based ELLA demonstrates discordant antigenic evolution of influenza B virus haemagglutinin and neuraminidase

Neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibodies have been associated with protection against influenza and thus NA is considered a promising target for next-generation vaccines against influenza A (IAV) and B viruses (IBV). NA inhibition (NI) by antibodies is typically assessed using an enzyme-linked lectin assay (ELLA). However, ELLA can be confounded by anti- hemagglutinin (anti-HA) antibodies that block NA by steric hindrance (termed HA interference). While strategies have been employed to overcome HA interference for IAV, similar approaches have not been assessed for IBV. We found HA interference is common in ELLA using IBV, rendering the technique unreliable. Anti-HA antibodies were not completely depleted from sera by HA-expressing cell lines and this approach was of limited utility. In contrast, we find that treatment of virions with Triton-X 100, but not Tween-20 or ether, efficiently separates the HA and NA components and overcomes interference caused by anti-HA antibodies. We also characterise a panel of recombinant IBV NA proteins that further validated the results from Triton-X 100-treated virus-based ELLA. Using these reagents and assays we demonstrate discordant antigenic evolution between IBV NA and HA over the last 80 years. This optimized ELLA protocol will facilitate further in-depth serological surveys of IBV immunity as well as antigenic characterisation of the IBV NA on a larger scale. ImportanceInfluenza B viruses contribute to annual epidemics and may cause severe disease, especially in children. Consequently, several approaches are being explored to improve vaccine efficacy, including the addition of neuraminidase. Antigen selection and assessment of serological responses will require a reliable serological assay to specifically quantify Neuraminidase inhibition. While such assays have been assessed for influenza A viruses, this has not been done of influenza B viruses. Our study identifies a readily applicable strategy to measure inhibitory activity of neuraminidase-specific antibodies against influenza B virus without interference from anti-hemagglutinin antibodies. This will aid broader serological assessment of influenza B virus-specific antibodies and antigenic characterisation of the influenza B virus neuraminidase.

microbiology↗

Contrasting dynamics of two incursions of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus into Australia

The current panzootic of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1 demonstrates how viral incursions can have major ramifications for wildlife and domestic animals. Herein, we describe the recent incursion into Australia of two low pathogenicity avian influenza virus subtypes, H4 and H10, that exhibited contrasting evolutionary dynamics. Viruses detected from national surveillance and disease investigations between 2020-2022 revealed 27 genomes, 24 of which have at least one segment more closely related to Eurasian or North American avian influenza lineages than those already circulating in Australia. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that H4 viruses circulating in shorebirds represent a recent incursion from Asia that is distinct from those circulating concurrently in Australian waterfowl. Analysis of the internal segments further demonstrates exclusive, persistent circulation in shorebirds. This contrasts with H10, where a novel lineage has emerged in wild waterfowl, poultry and captive birds across Australia, and has likely replaced previously circulating H10 lineages through competitive exclusion. Elucidating different dynamics for avian influenza incursions supports effective disease risk identification and communication that better informs disease preparedness and response.

microbiology↗

Long distance avian migrants fail to bring 2.3.4.4b HPAI H5N1 into Australia for a second year in a row

There is an ongoing and profound burden of lineage 2.3.4.4b high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 on wildlife and poultry, globally. Herein we report the continued absence of HPAI and antibodies against lineage 2.3.4.4b HPAI from October - December 2023, in migratory birds shortly after their arrival in Australia. Given the ever-changing phenotype of this virus, worldwide studies on the occurrence, or here absence of the virus, are of critical importance to understand the virus dispersal and incursion risk and development of response strategies.

microbiology↗

The diverse viromes of Australian lizards are shaped by host taxonomy and habitat

Lizards inhabit diverse ecologies and evolutionary histories and hence represent a promising group to explore how hosts shape virome structure and virus evolution. Yet little is known about the viromes of these animals. In Australia, squamates (lizards and snakes) comprise the most diverse order of vertebrates, and Australia hosts the highest diversity of lizards globally, with the greatest breadth of habitat use. We used meta-transcriptomic sequencing to determine the virome of nine co-distributed, tropical lizard species from three taxonomic families in Australia and analyzed these data to identify host traits associated with viral abundance and diversity. We show that lizards carry a large diversity of viruses, identifying more than 30 novel, highly divergent vertebrate-associated viruses. These viruses were from nine viral families, including several that contain well known pathogens, such as the Flaviviridae, Picornaviridae, Bornaviridae, Iridoviridae and Rhabdoviridae. Members of the Flaviviridae were particularly abundant across species sampled here, largely belonging to the genus Hepacivirus: 14 novel Hepaciviruses were identified, broadening the known diversity of this group and better defining its evolution by uncovering new reptilian clades. The evolutionary histories of the viruses studied here frequently aligned with the biogeographic and phylogenetic histories of the hosts, indicating that exogenous viruses may help infer host evolutionary history if sampling is strategic and sampling density high enough. Notably, analysis of alpha and beta diversity revealed that virome composition and richness was shaped by host taxonomy, habitat and range size. In sum, we identified a diverse range of reptile viruses that broadly contributes to our understanding of virus-host ecology and evolution.

microbiology↗

No evidence for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 (clade 2.3.4.4b) in the Antarctic region during the austral summer 2022/23

The current highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 panzootic has substantial impacts on wild birds and marine mammals. Although major outbreaks occurred in South America, incursion to Antarctica emerged late in the breeding season of 2023/2024 and was confined the wider region of the Antarctic Peninsula. To infer potential underlying processes, we compiled H5N1 surveillance from Antarctica and Sub-Antarctic Islands prior to the first confirmed cases.

microbiology↗

Differential cross-reactivity to the influenza B virus haemagglutinin underpins lineage-specific susceptibility between birth cohorts

Influenza exposures early in life are believed to shape future susceptibility to influenza infections by imprinting immunological biases that engender differential cross-reactivity to future influenza viruses, but direct serological evidence linked to susceptibility is limited. We analysed hemagglutination-inhibition titres in 1451 cross-sectional samples collected between 1992-2020, from individuals born between 1917-2008, against influenza B virus (IBV) isolates from 1940-2021, including future isolates that circulated after sample collection. We demonstrate that immunological biases are conferred by early life IBV infection and result in lineage-specific cross-reactivity of a birth cohort towards future IBV isolates. This translates into differential estimates of susceptibility between birth cohorts towards the two IBV antigenic lineages, explaining lineage-specific age distributions of observed medically attended IBV infections. Our data bridge a critical gap between early life exposure, cross-reactivity, and influenza epidemiology and identify a plausible model to further dissect the interplay between host immunity, viral evolution and epidemiology.

immunology↗

Wild birds' plight and role in the current bird flu panzootic

The current avian influenza panzootic is unprecedented and catastrophic for birds. With a focus on the implications of this panzootic for poultry, there is limited attention on wild birds. We highlight shortcomings and geographic biases in reporting leading to a severe underappreciation of wildlife mortality. We estimate the scale of mortality amongst wild birds is in the millions rather than tens-of-thousands reported, through comparison of notification data to accounts literature. The outbreaks amongst wild birds are causing population and species level concerns which may drive extinctions and jeopardise decades of conservation efforts.

microbiology↗

Interplay between pollution and avian influenza virus infection risk in shorebirds and waterfowl

Anthropogenic pollution may disrupt wildlife immune function and increase susceptibility to, and ability to withstand, infection. Of particular concern is avian influenza virus (AIV), which in its low-pathogenic form is endemic in many wild bird populations, notably waterfowl and shorebirds, and in its high-pathogenic form poses a threat to wildlife, livestock and people. Many pollutants have immunomodulative properties, yet little is known about how these pollutants affect AIV infection risk specifically. We examined concentrations of known immunomodulatory compounds, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), and assessed their influence on AIV infection in three reservoir species, red-necked stint (Calidris ruficollis, n=121), pacific black duck (Anas superciliosa, n=57) and grey teal (Anas gracilis, n= 62). Using data on viral prevalence (cloacal/oropharyngeal swabs) and seroprevalence (AIV anti-nucleoprotein antibodies), we found no significant effect of PFASs pollution (total PFASs <0.01 - 470 ng/g in red-necked stint, <0.01 - 600 ng/g in pacific black duck and 0.3 - 200 ng/g in grey teal) on infection status in our three species. This may be due to relatively low pollutant concentrations, but we cannot rule out possible population culling through a synergy of pollution and infection stressors. We therefore recommend further studies on infection incidence in more polluted populations or species.

ecology↗