Biology subjects

Pascual, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Pascual, M..

41 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

bioRxiv2017

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

Inter-pandemic or seasonal influenza exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus antigenic evolution. We propose here a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed models are simple enough that their parameters can be estimated from retrospective surveillance data. These models link amino-acid sequences of hemagglutinin epitopes with a transmission model for seasonal H3N2 influenza, also informed by H1N1 levels. With a monthly time series of H3N2 incidence in the United States over 10 years, we demonstrate the feasibility of prediction ahead of season and an accurate real-time forecast for the 2016/2017 influenza season.\n\nSUMMARYSkillful forecasting of seasonal (H3N2) influenza incidence ahead of the season is shown to be possible by means of a transmission model that explicitly tracks evolutionary change in the virus, integrating information from both epidemiological surveillance and readily available genetic sequences.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Networks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum

Pathogens compete for hosts through patterns of cross-protection conferred by immune responses to antigens. In Plasmodium falciparum malaria, the var multigene family encoding for the major blood-stage antigen PfEMP1 has evolved enormous genetic diversity through ectopic recombination and mutation. With 50-60 var genes per genome, it is unclear whether immune selection can act as a dominant force in structuring var repertoires of local populations. The combinatorial complexity of the var system remains beyond the reach of existing strain theory, and previous evidence for non-random structure cannot demonstrate immune selection without comparison to neutral models. We develop two neutral models that encompass malaria epidemiology but exclude competitive interactions between parasites. These models, combined with networks of genetic similarity, reveal non-neutral strain structure in both simulated systems and an extensively sampled population in Ghana. The unique population structure we identify underlies the large transmission reservoir characteristic of highly endemic regions in Africa.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Enriched pathogen diversity under host-type heterogeneity and immune-mediated competition

Pathogen strains can stably coexist if they specialize on different hosts. Multiple strains can also coexist on a single host through negative frequency-dependent interactions mediated by partial cross-immunity. Understanding pathogen diversity remains a challenge however when both host specificity and cross-immunity are acting and may be functionally linked, as has been proposed for rotavirus, where a single protein is both antigenically important and determines host specificity by binding to the genetically encoded human blood group antigens. This situation is akin to the more general question in ecology of species coexistence when stabilizing and equalizing mechanisms interact. We examine this interaction with a theoretical model motivated by rotavirus and apply an adaptive dynamics framework to show how these two kinds of competition, typically considered separately, affect diversity. When cross-immunity depends on host-pathogen affinity, diversity is magnified as long-term evolution allows for the coexistence of multiple semi-specialized strains, similar to observations in rotavirus. In contrast, the simultaneous co-occurrence of several semi-specialized individuals is not observed when the degree of cross-immunity is independent from affinity distance among strains. The interplay of equalizing and stabilizing mechanisms fundamentally modifies diversity patterns and should be considered when addressing strain coexistence.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Role Of Competition In The Strain Structure Of Rotavirus Under Invasion And Reassortment

The role of competitive interactions in the formation and coexistence of viral strains remains unresolved. Neglected aspects of existing strain theory are that viral pathogens are repeatedly introduced from animal sources and readily exchange their genes. The combined effect of introduction and reassortment opposes strain structure, in particular the predicted stable coexistence of antigenically differentiated strains under strong frequency-dependent selection mediated by cross-immunity. Here we use a stochastic model motivated by rotavirus, the most common cause of childhood diarrheal mortality, to investigate serotype structure under these conditions. We describe a regime in which the transient coexistence of distinct strains emerges despite only weak cross-immunity, but is disturbed by invasions of new antigenic segments that reassort into existing backgrounds. We find support for this behavior in global rotavirus sequence data and present evidence for the displacement of new strains towards open antigenic niches. Our work extends previous work to bacterial and viral pathogens that share these rotavirus-like characteristics, with important implications for the effects of interventions such as vaccination on strain composition, and for the understanding of the factors promoting emergence of new subtypes.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Conservation of single amino-acid polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 and association with severe pathophysiology

Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) is a parasite protein encoded by a multigene family known as var. Expressed on the surface of infected red blood cells, PfEMP1 plays a central role in parasite virulence. The DBL domain of PfEMP1 contains short sequence motifs termed homology blocks. Variation within homology blocks, at the level of single amino-acid modifications, has not been considered before in association with severe disease. Here we identify a total of 2701 amino-acid polymorphisms within DBL homology blocks, the majority of which are shared between two geographically distant study populations in existing transcription data from Kenya and in a new genomic dataset sampled in Ghana. Parasitemia levels and the transcription levels of specific polymorphisms are as predictive of severe disease (AUC=0.83) and of the degree of rosetting (forecast skill SS=0.45) as the transcription of classic var groups. 11 newly categorized polymorphisms were strongly correlated with grpA var gene expression (SS=0.93) and a different set of 16 polymorphisms was associated with the H3 subset (SS=0.20). These associations provide the basis for a novel method of relating pathophysiology to parasite gene expression levels--one that, being site-specific, has more molecular detail than previous models based on var groups or homology blocks. This newly described variation influences disease outcome, and can help develop anti-malarial intervention strategies such as vaccines that target severe disease. Further replication of this analysis in geographically disparate populations and for larger sample sizes can help improve the identification of the molecular causes of severe disease.

genomics↗