Biology subjects

Pascual, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Pascual, M..

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

Variation in mutation, recombination, and transposition rates in Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila simulans

Mutation, recombination, and transposition occurring during meiosis provide the variation on which natural selection can act and the rates at which they occur are important parameters in models of evolution. The de novo mutation rate determines levels of genetic diversity, responses to ongoing selection, and levels of genetic load. Recombination breaks up haplotypes and reduces the effects of linkage, helping to spread beneficial alleles and purge deleterious ones. Transposable elements (TE) selfishly replicate themselves through the genome, imposing fitness costs on the host and introducing complex mutations that can affect gene expression and give rise to new genes. However, even for key evolutionary models such as Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans few estimates of these parameters are available, and we have little idea of how rates vary between individuals, sexes, populations, or species. Here, we provide direct estimates of mutation, recombination, and transposition rates and their variation in a West African and a European population of D. melanogaster and a European population of D. simulans. Across 89 flies, we observe 58 single nucleotide mutations, 286 crossovers, and 89 TE insertions. Compared to the European D. melanogaster, we find the West African population has a lower mutation rate (1.67 vs. 4.86 x 10-9 site-1 gen-1) and transposition rate (8.99 vs. 23.36 x 10-5 copy-1 gen-1), but a higher recombination rate (3.44 vs. 2.06 cM/Mb). The European D. simulans population has a similar mutation rate to European D. melanogaster but a significantly higher recombination rate and a lower but not significantly different transposition rate. Overall, we find paternal-derived mutations are more frequent than maternal ones in both species. HighlightsO_LIDe novo mutation rates are 1.67 x 10-9 site-1 gen-1 (95% HPD CI: 0.54 - 3.14 x 10-9), 4.86 x 10-9 site-1 gen-1 (2.11 - 8.02 x 10-9), and 4.51 x 10-9 site-1 gen-1 (1.94 - 7.75 x 10-9) for the West African D. melanogaster, the European D. melanogaster and the European D. simulans population, respectively. C_LIO_LIIn females, recombination rates in the absence of large genomic inversions are 3.44 cM/Mb (2.72 - 4.18), 2.06 cM/Mb (1.57 - 2.57), and 3.04 cM/Mb (2.45 - 3.73) for the three populations, respectively. There was no strong evidence of recombination observed in males. C_LIO_LIMutations (SNMs and indels) are male-biased. C_LIO_LIThe West African D. melanogaster population has a lower TE activity than the other populations and CMC-Transib is the dominant active TE. The European D. melanogaster population has multiple active TEs: Gypsy, CMC-Transib, Pao, Jockey and hAT-hobo; while in European D. simulans, they are Gypsy, CMC-Transib, Pao, hAT-hobo, Copia and TcMar-Mariner. C_LI

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Neutral vs. non-neutral genetic footprints of Plasmodium falciparum multiclonal infections

At a time when effective tools for monitoring malaria control and eradication efforts are crucial, the increasing availability of molecular data motivates their application to epidemiology. The multiplicity of infection (MOI), defined as the number of genetically distinct parasite strains co-infecting a host, is one key epidemiological parameter for evaluating malaria interventions. Estimating MOI remains a challenge for high-transmission settings where individuals typically carry multiple co-occurring infections. Several quantitative approaches have been developed to estimate MOI, including two cost-effective ones relying on molecular data: i) THE REAL McCOIL method is based on putatively neutral single nucleotide polymorphism loci, and ii) the varcoding method is a fingerprinting approach that relies on the diversity and limited repertoire overlap of the var multigene family encoding the major Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage antigen PfEMP1 and is therefore under selection. In this study, we assess the robustness of the MOI estimates generated with these two approaches by simulating P. falciparum malaria dynamics under three transmission conditions using an extension of a previously developed stochastic agent-based model. We demonstrate that these approaches are complementary and best considered across distinct transmission intensities. While varcoding can underestimate MOI, it allows robust estimation, especially under high-transmission where repertoire overlap is extremely limited from frequency-dependent selection. In contrast, THE REAL McCOIL often considerably overestimates MOI, but still provides reasonable estimates for low- and moderate-transmission. As many countries pursue malaria elimination targets, defining the most suitable approach to estimate MOI based on sample size and local transmission intensity is highly recommended for monitoring the impact of intervention programs. Author SummaryDespite control and elimination efforts, malaria continues to be a serious public health threat especially in high-transmission regions. Molecular tools for evaluating these efforts include those seeking to estimate multiplicity (or complexity) of infection (MOI), the number of genetically distinct parasite strains co-infecting a host, a key epidemiological parameter. MOI estimation remains challenging in high-transmission regions where hosts typically carry multiple co-infections by Plasmodium falciparum. THE REAL McCOIL and the varcoding are two cost-effective methods relying on distinct parts of the parasite genome, those respectively under neutrality and selection. The more recent varcoding approach relies on the var multigene family encoding for the major blood-stage antigen and contributing to a complex immune evasion strategy of the parasite. We compare the performance of the two methods by simulating disease dynamics under different transmission intensities with a stochastic agent-based model tracking infection by different parasite genomes and immune memory in individual hosts, then sampling resulting infections to estimate MOI. Although THE REAL McCOIL provides reasonable estimates for low- and moderate-transmission, varcoding allows more robust estimates especially under high-transmission. Defining the most suitable approach to estimate MOI based on local transmission intensity is highly recommended for hyper-diverse pathogens such as malaria.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Syntaxin-1 is necessary for UNC5/Netrin-1-dependent macropinocytosis and chemorepulsion

Brain connectivity requires correct axonal guidance to drive axons to their appropriate targets. This process is orchestrated by guidance cues that exert attraction or repulsion to developing axons. However, the intricacies of the cellular machinery responsible for the correct response of growth cones are just being unveiled. Netrin-1 is a bifunctional molecule involved in axon pathfinding and cell migration that induces repulsion during postnatal cerebellar development. This process is mediated by Uncoordinated locomotion 5 (UNC5) receptors located on external granule layer (EGL) tracts. Here, we demonstrate that this response is characterized by enhanced membrane internalization through macropinocytosis, but not clathrin-mediated endocytosis. We show that UNC5 receptors form a protein complex with the t-SNARE syntaxin-1 (Stx1). By combining botulinum neurotoxins, a shRNA knock-down strategy and Stx1 knock-out mice, we demonstrate that this SNARE protein is required for Netrin-1-induced macropinocytosis and chemorepulsion, suggesting that Stx1 is crucial in regulating Netrin-1-mediated axonal guidance.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2020

Frequency-dependent competition between strains imparts resilience to perturbations in a model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission.

In high-transmission endemic regions, local populations of Plasmodium falciparum exhibit vast diversity of the var genes encoding its major surface antigen, with each parasite comprising multiple copies from this diverse gene pool. This strategy to evade the immune system through large combinatorial antigenic diversity is common to other hyperdiverse pathogens. It underlies a series of fundamental epidemiological characteristics, including large reservoirs of transmission from high prevalence of asymptomatics and long-lasting infections. Previous theory has shown that negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) mediated by the acquisition of specific immunity by hosts structures the diversity of var gene repertoires (strains), in a pattern of limiting similarity that is both non-random and non-neutral. A combination of stochastic agent-based models and network analyses has enabled the development and testing of theory in these complex adaptive systems, where assembly of local parasite diversity occurs under frequency-dependent selection and large pools of variation. We show here the application of these approaches to theory comparing the resilience of the malaria transmission system to intervention when strain diversity is assembled under (competition-based) selection vs. a form of neutrality, where immunity depends only on the number but not the genetic identity of previous infections. The transmission system is considerably more resilient under NFDS, exhibiting a lower extinction probability despite comparable prevalence during intervention. We explain this pattern on the basis of the structure of strain diversity, in particular the more pronounced fraction of highly dissimilar parasites. For simulations that survive intervention, prevalence under specific immunity is lower than under neutrality, because the recovery of diversity is considerably slower than that of prevalence and decreased var gene diversity reduces parasite transmission. A Principal Component Analysis of network features describing parasite similarity reveals that despite lower overall diversity, NFDS is quickly restored after intervention constraining strain structure and maintaining patterns of limiting similarity important to parasite persistence. Given the resulting resilience to perturbations, intervention efforts will likely require longer times than the usual practice to eliminate P. falciparum populations. We discuss implications of our findings and potential analogies for ecological communities with non-neutral assembly processes involving frequency-dependence.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Coexistence of amyloid-β and Tau hyperphosphorylation rescues cognitive and electrophysiological deficiencies in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimers disease comprises amyloid-{beta} (A{beta}) and hyperphosphorylated Tau (P-Tau) accumulation, imbalanced neuronal activity, aberrant oscillatory rhythms, and cognitive deficits. Non-Demented with Alzheimers disease Neuropathology (NDAN) defines a novel clinical entity with A{beta} and Tau pathologies, but preserved cognition. The mechanisms underlying such neuroprotection remain undetermined and animal models are currently unavailable for NDAN. We show that J20/VLW mice, accumulating A{beta} and P-Tau, exhibit preserved hippocampal rhythmic activity and cognition, altered in J20 and VLW animals. Furthermore, we show that coexistence with A{beta} renders a particular P-Tau signature in hippocampal interneurons. The GABAergic septohippocampal pathway, responsible for hippocampal rhythmic activity, is preserved in J20/VLW mice, in contrast to single mutants. Our data highlight J20/VLW mice as a suitable animal model to understand the mechanisms driving cognitive preservation in NDAN and suggest that a differential P-Tau pattern in hippocampal interneurons prevents GABAergic septohippocampal innervation loss and alterations in local field potentials, avoiding cognitive deficits.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2020

The discovery, distribution and diversity of DNA viruses associated with Drosophila melanogaster in Europe

Drosophila melanogaster is an important model for antiviral immunity in arthropods, but very few DNA viruses have been described from the family Drosophilidae. This deficiency limits our opportunity to use natural host-pathogen combinations in experimental studies, and may bias our understanding of the Drosophila virome. Here we report fourteen DNA viruses detected in a metagenomic analysis of approximately 6500 pool-sequenced Drosophila, sampled from 47 European locations between 2014 and 2016. These include three new Nudiviruses, a new and divergent Entomopox virus, a virus related to Leptopilina boulardi filamentous virus, and a virus related to Musca domestica salivary gland hypertrophy virus. We also find an endogenous genomic copy of Galbut virus, a dsRNA Partitivirus, segregating at very low frequency. Remarkably, we find that Drosophila Vesanto virus, a small DNA virus previously described as a Bidnavirus, may be composed of up to 12 segments and represent a new lineage of segmented DNA viruses. Two of the DNA viruses, Drosophila Kallithea nudivirus and Drosophila Vesanto virus are relatively common, found in 2% or more of wild flies. The others are rare, with many likely to be represented by a single infected fly. We find that virus prevalence in Europe reflects the prevalence seen in publicly-available datasets, with Drosophila Kallithea nudivirus and Drosophila Vesanto virus the only ones commonly detectable in public data from wild-caught flies and large population cages, and the other viruses being rare or absent. These analyses suggest that DNA viruses are at lower prevalence than RNA viruses in D. melanogaster, and may be less likely to persist in laboratory cultures. Our findings go some way to redressing an earlier bias toward RNA virus studies in Drosophila, and lay the foundation needed to harness the power of Drosophila as a model system for the study of DNA viruses.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2020

Unveiling sex-based differences in the effects of alcohol abuse: a comprehensive functional meta-analysis of transcriptomic studies

The abuse of alcohol, one of the most popular psychoactive substances, can cause several pathological and psychological consequences, including alcohol use disorder (AUD). An impaired ability to stop or control alcohol intake despite adverse health or social consequences characterize AUD. While AUDs predominantly occur in men, growing evidence suggests the existence of distinct cognitive and biological consequences of alcohol dependence in women. The molecular and physiological mechanisms participating in these differential effects remain unknown. Transcriptomic technology permits the detection of the biological mechanisms responsible for such sex-based differences, which supports the subsequent development of novel personalized therapeutics to treat AUD. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies regarding alcohol dependence in humans with representation from both sexes. For each study, we processed and analyzed transcriptomic data to obtain a functional profile of pathways and biological functions and then integrated the resulting data by meta-analysis to characterize any sex-based transcriptomic differences associated with AUD. Global results of the transcriptomic analysis revealed the association of decreased tissue regeneration, embryo malformations, altered intracellular transport, and increased rate of RNA and protein replacement with female AUD patients. Meanwhile, our analysis indicated that increased inflammatory response and blood pressure and a reduction in DNA repair capabilities associated with male AUD patients. In summary, our functional meta-analysis of transcriptomic studies provides evidence for differential biological mechanisms that AUD patients of differing sex. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=169 SRC="FIGDIR/small/254185v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (36K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@13c9becorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@20aac4org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@ab5502org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@5a0d37_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2020

An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria and its control at high endemicity

In malaria and several other important infectious diseases, high prevalence occurs concomitantly with incomplete immunity. This apparent paradox poses major challenges to malaria elimination in highly endemic regions, where asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are present across all age classes creating a large reservoir that maintains transmission. This reservoir is in turn enabled by extreme antigenic diversity of the parasite and turnover of new variants. We present here the concept of a threshold in local pathogen diversification that defines a sharp transition in transmission intensity below which new antigen-encoding genes generated by either recombination or migration cannot establish. Transmission still occurs below this threshold, but diversity of these genes can neither accumulate nor recover from interventions that further reduce it. An analytical expectation for this threshold is derived and compared to numerical results from a stochastic individual-based model of malaria transmission that incorporates the major antigen-encoding multigene family known as var. This threshold corresponds to an "innovation" number we call Rdiv; it is different from, and complementary to, the one defined by the classic basic reproductive number of infectious diseases, R0, which does not easily apply under large and dynamic strain diversity. This new threshold concept can be exploited for effective malaria control and applied more broadly to other pathogens with large multilocus antigenic diversity. Author summaryThe vast diversity of the falciparum malaria parasite as seen by the immune system of hosts in high transmission regions, underlies both high prevalence of asymptomatic infections and partial protection to re-infection despite previous exposure. This large antigenic diversity of the parasite challenges control and elimination efforts. We propose a threshold quantity for antigenic innovation, we call Rdiv, measuring the potential of transmission to accumulate new antigenic variants over time. When Rdiv is pushed below one by reduced transmission intensity, new genes encoding this variation can no longer accumulate, resulting in a lower number of strains and facilitating further intervention. This innovation number can be applied to other infectious diseases with fast turnover of antigens, where large standing diversity similarly opposes successful intervention.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

The network structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics of CRISPR-induced immune diversification

As a heritable sequence-specific adaptive immune system, CRISPR-Cas is a powerful force shaping strain diversity in host-virus systems. While the diversity of CRISPR alleles has been explored, the associated structure and dynamics of host-virus interactions have not. We explore the role of CRISPR in mediating the interplay between host-virus interaction structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a computational model and compare results with three empirical datasets from natural systems. We show that the structure of the networks describing who infects whom and the degree to which strains are immune, are respectively modular (containing groups of hosts and viruses that interact strongly) and weighted-nested (specialist hosts are more susceptible to subsets of viruses that in turn also infect the more generalist hosts with many spacers matching many viruses). The dynamic interplay between these networks influences transitions between dynamical regimes of virus diversification and host control. The three empirical systems exhibit weighted-nested protection networks, a pattern our theory shows is indicative of hosts able to suppress virus diversification. Previously missing from studies of microbial host-pathogen systems, the protection network plays a key role in the coevolutionary dynamics.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Septal GABAergic Inputs to CA1 Govern Contextual Memory Retrieval

Whether projections from the medial septum regulate the function of the CA1 hippocampus in episodic memory retrieval is not known. Here we show that septal GABAergic inputs to CA1 promote contextual fear memory, blocking the activation of parvalbumin-rich interneurons to facilitate Erk/MAP-kinase signaling in pyramidal cells during retrieval. Thus, suppression of feed-forward inhibition onto CA1 by septal GABAergic neurons gates contextual fear behavior.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2019

Tubewell use protects against rotavirus infection during the monsoons in an urban setting

Rotavirus, a diarrheal pathogen spread via fecal-oral transmission, is typically characterized by a winter incidence peak in most countries. Unlike for cholera and other water-borne infections, the role of environmental and socioeconomic factors on the spatial variation of rotavirus seasonality remains unclear. Here, we analyze their association with rotavirus seasonality, specifically the odds of monsoon cases, across 46 locations from 2001 to 2012 in Dhaka. Drinking water from tubewells, compared to other sources, has a clear protective effect against cases during the monsoon, when flooding and water contamination are more likely. This finding supports a significant environmental component of transmission.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Local climate and social inequality drive spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk across a complex urban landscape

BackgroundCities are becoming increasingly important habitats for mosquito-borne infections. The pronounced heterogeneity of urban landscapes challenges our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of these diseases, and of the influence of climate and socio-economic factors at different spatial scales. Here, we quantify this joint influence on malaria risk by taking advantage of an extensive dataset in both space and time for reported Plasmodium falciparum cases in the city of Surat, Northwest India. MethodsWe analyzed 10 years of monthly falciparum cases resolved at three nested spatial resolutions (for 7 zones, 32 units and 478 workers units subdivisions, respectively). With a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model that incorporates effects of population density, poverty, humidity and temperature, we investigate the main drivers of spatio-temporal malaria risk at the intermediate scale of districts. The significance of covariates and the model fit is then examined at lower and higher resolutions. FindingsThe spatial variation of urban malaria cases is strongly stationary in time, whereby locations exhibiting high and low yearly cases remain largely consistent across years. Local socio-economic variation can be summarized with two main principal components, representing poverty and population density respectively. The model that incorporates these two factors together with local temperature and global relative humidity, best explains monthly malaria patterns at the intermediate resolution. The effects of local temperature and population density remain significant at the finest spatial scale. We further identify the specific areas where such increased resolution improves model fit. InterpretationMalaria risk patterns within the city are largely driven by fixed spatial structures, highlighting the key role of local climate conditions and social inequality. As a result, malaria elimination efforts in the Indian subcontinent can benefit from identifying, predicting and targeting disease hotspots within cities. Spatio-temporal statistical models for the mesoscale of administrative units can inform control efforts, and be complemented with bespoke plans in the identified areas where finer scale data could be of value. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSUrban areas have become the new dominant ecosystem around the globe. Developing countries comprise the most urbanized regions of the world, with 80% of their population living in cities and an expected increase to 90% by 2050. The large and heterogeneous environments of today challenge the understanding and control of infectious disease dynamics, including of those transmitted by vectors. Malaria in the Indian subcontinent has an important urban component given the existence of a truly urban mosquito vector Anopheles stephensi. A literature search in Mendeley of "urban malaria" and "India" returned 161 publications, in their majority on diagnostics or brief reports on the disease, and on cross-sectional rather than longitudinal studies addressing the spatio-temporal variation of disease risk for a whole city, the subject of our work. A relevant exception is a study for the city of Ahmedabad; this not address multiple seasons across different spatial scales, and climatic conditions are not considered jointly with socio-economic drivers in the modeling. A second Mendeley search on A. stephensi returned 11 publications into two distinct groups: early entomological studies for India and recent reports of the mosquito in the Horn of Africa. This geographical expansion makes the specter of urban malaria a future possibility for the African continent where the disease remains so far rural and peri-urban. Added value of this studyThis paper relies on an extensive surveillance data set of Plasmodium falciparum cases for Surat (India) to investigate the variation and drivers of malaria risk in an heterogenous urban environment. A statistical model for the spatio-temporal variability of cases is developed, which includes both climatic and socio-economic drivers, with the latter summarized into two major axes of variation. Model fits are compared across three spatial resolutions, ranging from a few zones to a few hundred units. Seasonal hotspots are shown to be largely stationary in time, which allows identification of dominant drivers, including population density and local temperatures, whereas humidity acts globally modulating year-to-year burden. More granular statistical models and datasets like the one analyzed here are needed to capture the effects of socioeconomic and climatic drivers, and to predict current and future malaria incidence patterns within cities. Implications of all the available evidenceThe analysis identifies relevant resolution which can vary across the city for targeted intervention, including vector control, that would focus on reducing and eliminating transmission hotspots. The modeling framework, incorporating predictors representing climate at local vs. aggregate levels, and major axes of socio-economic variation, should apply to other vector-borne diseases and other cities for which surveillance records are available. The importance of spatially-explicit and sustained surveillance data for informing these models cannot be overstated.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Impact of an intra-abdominal cooling device during open kidney transplantation in pigs

BackgroundKidney transplantation using deceased donors still suffers from high post-operative dysfunction rate. During implantation into the recipient, the kidney rewarms. This second warm ischemia time, which is not monitored, is harmful especially if prolonged. We recently developed an intra-abdominal cooling device that efficiently prevents kidney rewarming during robotic transplantation, and prevent ischemia-reperfusion injuries. Here, we tested the benefits of this cooling device during open kidney transplantation in pigs.\n\nMaterialsKidneys were procured from large pigs by open bilateral nephrectomy. Following procurement, kidneys were flushed with 4{degrees}C Institut Georges Lopez-1 preservation solution, and placed on ice for 128.5 {+/-} 23.2 min. The cooling device was used to continuously cool down the kidney during the vascular anastomosis time.\n\nMethodsAnimals underwent double sequential autologous open renal transplantation with (n = 7) and without (n = 6) intra-abdominal cooling. Renal cortex temperature and urine output were monitored. The severity of the ischemia reperfusion lesions was analyzed by histology (modified Goujon score).\n\nResultsMean anastomosis time was similar between groups (43.9 {+/-} 13 min). At reperfusion, the renal cortex temperature was lower in the group with cooling (4.3 {+/-} 1.1{degrees}C vs 26.5 {+/-} 5.5{degrees}C p <0.001). The cooled kidneys tended to be protected from injury, including some histopathological ischemia-reperfusion lesions. With the device, kidneys had a better immediate post-operative urine output (p=0.05).\n\nConclusionsOur results indicate that the intra-abdominal cooling device significantly reduces second warm ischemic time during transplantation, is technically safe, and does not prolong anastomotic time.

physiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Seascape genetics at its finest: dispersal patchiness within a well-connected population

Dispersal is a main determining factor of population structure and variation. In the marine habitat, well-connected populations with large numbers of reproducing individuals are common but even so population structure can exist on a small-scale. Variation in dispersal between populations or over time is often associated to both environmental and genetic variation. Nonetheless, detecting structure and dispersal variation on a fine-scale within marine populations still remains a challenge. Here we propose and use a novel approach of combining a clustering model, early-life history trait information from fish otoliths, spatial coordinates and genetic markers to detect very fine-scale dispersal patterns. We collected 1573 individuals (946 adults and 627 juveniles) of the black-faced blenny across a small-scale (2km) coastline as well as at a larger-scale area (<50kms). A total of 178 single nucleotide polymorphism markers were used to evaluate relatedness patterns within this well-connected population. Local retention and/or dispersal varied across the 2km coastline with higher frequency of SHORT-range disperser adults; representing local recruitment; towards the southwest of the area. An inverse pattern was found for juveniles, showing an increase of SHORT-range dispersers towards the northeast. This reveals a complex but not full genetic mixing and suggests oceanic/coastal circulation as the main driver of this fine-scale chaotic genetic patchiness within this otherwise homogeneous population. When focusing on the patterns within one recruitment season, we found large differences in temperatures (from approx. 17oC to 25oC) as well as pelagic larval duration (PLD) for juveniles from the beginning of the season and the end of the season. We were able to detect fine-scale differences in HIGH-range juvenile dispersers, representing distant migrants, depending on whether they were born at the beginning of the season, hence, with a longer PLD, or at the end of the reproductive season. The ability to detect such fine-scale dispersal patchiness will aid in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of population structuring and chaotic patchiness in a wide range of species even with high potential dispersal abilities.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Influenza incidence prediction for the United States: an update for the 2018-2019 season

IntroductionSeasonal influenza causes a high disease burden every year in the United States and worldwide. Anticipating epidemic size ahead of season can contribute to preparedness and more targetted control and prevention of seasonal influenza.\n\nMethodsA recently developed process-based epidemiological model that incorporates evolutionary change of the virus and generates incidence forecasts for the H3N2 subtype ahead of the season, was previously validated by several statistical criteria, including an accurate real-time prediction for the 2016-2017 influenza season. With this model, a new forecast is generated here for the upcoming 2018-2019 season. The accuracy of predictions published for the 2017-2018 season is also retrospectively evaluated.\n\nResultsFor 2017-2018, the model correctly predicted the dominance of the H3N2 subtype and its higher than average incidence. Based on surveillance and sequence data up to June 2018, the new forecast for the upcoming 2018-2019 season indicates low levels for H3N2, and suggests an H1N1 dominant season with low incidence of influenza B.\n\nDiscussionReal-time forecasts, those generated with a model that was parameterized based on data preceding the predicted season, allows valuable evaluation of the approach. Anticipating the dominant subtype and the size of the upcoming epidemic ahead of season informs disease control. Further studies are needed to promote more accurate ahead-of-season forecasts and extend the approach to multiple subtypes.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2018

Competition for hosts modulates vast antigenic diversity to generate persistent strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum

In their competition for hosts, parasites with antigens that are novel to host immunity will be at a competitive advantage. The resulting frequency-dependent selection can structure parasite populations into strains of limited genetic overlap. For Plasmodium falciparum-the causative agent of malaria-in endemic regions, the high recombination rates and associated vast diversity of its highly antigenic and multicopy var genes preclude such clear clustering; this undermines the definition of strains as specific, temporally-persisting gene variant combinations. We use temporal multilayer networks to analyze the genetic similarity of parasites in both simulated data and in an extensively and longitudinally sampled population in Ghana. When viewed over time, populations are structured into modules (i.e., groups) of parasite genomes whose var gene combinations are more similar within, than between, the modules, and whose persistence is much longer than that of the individual genomes that compose them. Comparison to neutral models that retain parasite population dynamics but lack competition reveals that the selection imposed by host immunity promotes the persistence of these modules. The modular structure is in turn associated with a slower acquisition of immunity by individual hosts. Modules thus represent dynamically generated niches in host immune space, which can be interpreted as strains. Negative frequency-dependent selection therefore shapes the organization of the var diversity into parasite genomes, leaving a persistence signature over ecological time scales. Multilayer networks extend the scope of phylodynamics analyses by allowing quantification of temporal genetic structure in organisms that generate variation via recombination or other non-bifurcating processes. A strain structure similar to the one described here should apply to other pathogens with large antigenic spaces that evolve via recombination. For malaria, the temporal modular structure should enable the formulation of tractable epidemiological models that account for parasite antigenic diversity and its influence on intervention outcomes.\n\nSignificanceMany pathogens, including the causative agent of malaria Plasmodium falciparum, use antigenic variation, obtained via recombination, as a strategy to evade the human immune system. The vast diversity and multiplicity of genes encoding antigenic variation in high transmission regions challenge the notion of the existence of distinct strains: temporally-persistent and specific combinations of genes relevant to epidemiology. We examine the role of human immune selection in generating such genetic population structure in the major blood-stage antigen of Plasmodium falciparum. We show, using simulated and empirical data, that immune selection generates and maintains modules of genomes with higher genetic similarity within, than between, these groups. Selection further promotes the persistence of these modules for much longer times than those of their constituent genomes. Simulations show that the temporal modular structure reduces the speed at which hosts acquire immunity to the parasite. We argue that in P. falciparum modules can be viewed as dynamic strains occupying different niches in human immune space; they are thus relevant to formulating transmission models that encompass the antigenic diversity of the parasite. Our analyses may prove useful to understand the interplay between temporal genetic structure and epidemiology in other pathogens of human and wildlife importance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Critical transitions in malaria transmission models are consistently generated by superinfection

The history of infectious disease modelling essentially begins with the papers by Ross on malaria [1-5]. These models assume that the dynamics of malaria can most simply be characterized by two equations that describe the prevalence of malaria in the human and mosquito hosts. This structure has formed the central core of models for malaria and most other vector-borne diseases for the last century with occasional additions acknowledging important aetiological details. We partially add to this tradition by describing a malaria model that provides for vital dynamics in the vector and the possibility of super-infection in the human host; reinfection of asymptomatic hosts before they have cleared a prior infection. These key features of malaria aetiology create the potential for break points in the prevalence of infected hosts, sudden transitions that seem to characterize malarias response to control in different locations. We show that this potential for critical transitions is a general and underappreciated feature of any model for vector borne diseases with incomplete immunity and asymptomatic patients, including the canonical Ross-McDonald model. Ignoring these details of the hosts immune response to infection can potentially lead to serious misunderstanding in the interpretation of malaria distribution patterns and the design of control schemes for other vector-borne diseases.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Genomic analysis of European Drosophila melanogaster populations on a dense spatial scale reveals longitudinal population structure and continent-wide selection

Genetic variation is the fuel of evolution, with standing genetic variation especially important for short-term evolution and local adaptation. To date, studies of spatio-temporal patterns of genetic variation in natural populations have been challenging, as comprehensive sampling is logistically difficult, and sequencing of entire populations costly. Here, we address these issues using a collaborative approach, sequencing 48 pooled population samples from 32 locations, and perform the first continent-wide genomic analysis of genetic variation in European Drosophila melanogaster. Our analyses uncover longitudinal population structure, provide evidence for continent-wide selective sweeps, identify candidate genes for local climate adaptation, and document clines in chromosomal inversion and transposable element frequencies. We also characterise variation among populations in the composition of the fly microbiome, and identify five new DNA viruses in our samples.

evolutionary biology↗