bioRxiv Science⌕ Search

Biology subjects

Osmond, M. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Osmond, M. M..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

Spatial inference of ancestor locations suggests northern refugia for canopy-forming kelps in the Northeast Pacific

O_LIPockets of the formerly glaciated Pacific coastline of North America likely remained ice-free throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). These areas may have served as refugia for terrestrial species, but less is known about their role in the persistence of coastal marine species. C_LIO_LIWe examined genetic diversity from >1,000 newly and previously sequenced whole genomes of canopy-forming kelps of the genera Nereocystis and Macrocystis, and built simple ecological niche models. We then reconstructed ancestral recombination graphs and modelled the geographic locations of genetic ancestors through time. C_LIO_LIWe detected high genetic diversity in both species in north-central British Columbia, in a region where suitable LGM habitat is plausible. Ancestor locations spatially converged backward in time toward this region, with multiple refugia inferred between northern Vancouver Island and southern Haida Gwaii. An expanded set of global samples for Macrocystis confirmed pre-LGM divergence with California but hinted at the possibility of subsequent gene flow. C_LIO_LIKelp forests survived in northern refugia and have continuously occupied portions of the northern Pacific coastline since the LGM. One implication of these results is their support for the Kelp Highway Hypothesis of the peopling of the Americas by a coastal route. C_LI

evolutionary biology↗

How genotype-by-environment interactions can maintain variation in mutualisms

Coevolution requires reciprocal genotype-by-genotype (GXG) interactions for fitness, which occur when the fitnesses of interacting species depend on the match between their genotypes. However, in mutualisms, when GXG interactions are mutually beneficial, simple models predict that positive feedbacks will erode genetic variation, weakening or eliminating the GXG interactions that fuel ongoing coevolution. This is inconsistent with the ample trait and fitness variation observed within real-world mutualisms. Here, we explore how genotype-by-environment (GXE) interactions, which occur when different genotypes respond differently to different environments, maintain variation in mutualisms. We employ a game theoretic model in which the fitnesses of two partners depend on mutually beneficial GXG and GXE interactions. Variation is maintained via migration-selection balance when GXE interactions are slightly stronger than GXG interactions or when they are much stronger than GXG interactions for just one partner. However, unexpectedly, when GXE interactions are much stronger than GXG interactions for both partners and dispersal is high, genotypically mismatched partners can fix, eroding variation and leading to apparent maladaptation between partners. We parameterize our model using data from three published reciprocal transplant experiments and find that the observed strengths of GXE interactions can maintain or erode variation in mutualisms via these mechanisms.

evolutionary biology↗

Inferring the geographic history of recombinant lineages using the full ancestral recombination graph

Spatial patterns of genetic relatedness among samples reflect the past movements of their ancestors. Our ability to untangle this history has the potential to improve dramatically given that we can now infer the ultimate description of genetic relatedness, the ancestral recombination graph (ARG). By extending spatial theory previously applied to trees, we generalize the common model of Brownian motion to full ARGs, thereby accounting for correlations in trees along a chromosome while efficiently computing likelihood-based estimates of dispersal rate and genetic ancestor locations, with associated uncertainties. We evaluate this models ability to reconstruct spatial histories using individual-based simulations and unfortunately find a clear bias in the estimates of dispersal rate and ancestor locations. We investigate the causes of this bias, pinpointing a discrepancy between the model and the true spatial process at recombination events. This highlights a key hurdle in extending the ubiquitous and analytically-tractable model of Brownian motion from trees to ARGs, which otherwise has the potential to provide an efficient method for spatial inference, with uncertainties, using all the information available in the full ARG.

evolutionary biology↗

Evolution in response to extreme events: good or bad?

Climate change is predicted to increase the severity of environmental perturbations, including storms and droughts, which act as strong selective agents. These extreme events are often of finite duration (pulse disturbances). Hence, while evolution during an extreme event may be adaptive, the resulting phenotypic changes may become maladaptive when the event ends. Using individual-based models and analytic approximations that fuse quantitative genetics and demography, we explore how heritability and phenotypic variance affect population size and extinction risk in finite populations under an extreme event of fixed duration. Since more evolution leads to greater maladaptation and slower population recovery following an extreme event, slowing population recovery, greater heritability can increase extinction risk when the extreme event is short, as in random environments with low autocorrelation. Alternatively, when an extreme event is sufficiently long, heritability often helps a population persist, as under a press perturbation. We also find that when events are severe, the buffering effect of phenotypic variance can outweigh the increased load it causes. Our results highlight the importance of the length and severity of a disturbance when assessing the role of evolution on population recovery; the rapid adaptive evolution observed during extreme events may be bad for persistence.

evolutionary biology↗

Genetic signatures of evolutionary rescue by a selective sweep

One of the most useful models in population genetics is that of a selective sweep and the consequent hitch-hiking of linked neutral alleles. While variations on this model typically assume constant population size, many instances of strong selection and rapid adaptation in nature may co-occur with complex demography. Here we extend the hitch-hiking model to evolutionary rescue, where adaptation and demography not only co-occur but are intimately entwined. Our results show how this feedback between demography and evolution determines - and restricts - the genetic signatures of evolutionary rescue, and how these differ from the signatures of sweeps in populations of constant size. In particular, we find rescue to harden sweeps from standing variance or new mutation (but not from migration), reduce genetic diversity both at the selected site and genome-wide, and increase the range of observed Tajimas D values. For a given initial rate of population decline, the feedback between demography and evolution makes all of these differences more dramatic under weaker selection, where bottlenecks are prolonged. Nevertheless, it is likely difficult to infer the co-incident timing of the sweep and bottleneck from these simple signatures, never-mind a feedback between them. Temporal samples spanning contemporary rescue events may offer one way forward.

evolutionary biology↗

During environmental change, cooperation can promote rescue or lead to evolutionary suicide

The adaptation of populations to changing conditions may be affected by interactions between individuals. For example, cooperative interactions may allow populations to maintain high densities, and thus keep track of moving environmental optima. At the same time, changes in population density alter the marginal benefits of cooperative investments, creating a feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolution of cooperation. Here we model how the evolution of cooperation is affected by, and in turn affects, adaptation to a changing environment. We hypothesize that changes in the environment lower population size and thus promote the evolution of cooperation, and that this in turn helps the population keep up with the moving optimum. However, we find that the evolution of cooperation can have qualitatively different effects, depending on which fitness component is reduced by the costs of cooperation. If the costs decrease fecundity, cooperation indeed speeds adaptation by increasing population density; if, in contrast, the costs decrease viability, cooperation may in fact slow adaptation by lowering the effective population size, leading to evolutionary suicide. Thus, we show that cooperation can either promote or--counter-intuitively--hinder adaptation to a changing environment.

evolutionary biology↗

Genetic paths to evolutionary rescue and the distribution of fitness effects along them

The past century has seen substantial theoretical and empirical progress on the genetic basis of adaptation. Over this same period a pressing need to prevent the evolution of drug resistance has uncovered much about the potential genetic basis of persistence in declining populations. However, we have little theory to predict and generalize how persistence - by sufficiently rapid adaptation - might be realized in this explicitly demographic scenario. Here we use Fishers geometric model with absolute fitness to begin a line of theoretical inquiry into the genetic basis of evolutionary rescue, focusing here on asexual populations that adapt through de novo mutations. We show how the dominant genetic path to rescue switches from a single mutation to multiple as mutation rates and the severity of the environmental change increase. In multi-step rescue, intermediate genotypes that themselves go extinct provide a springboard to rescue genotypes. Comparing to a scenario where persistence is assured, our approach allows us to quantify how a race between evolution and extinction leads to a genetic basis of adaptation that is composed of fewer loci of larger effect. We hope this work brings awareness to the impact of demography on the genetic basis of adaptation.

evolutionary biology↗

Patterns of speciation and parallel genetic evolution under adaptation from standing variation

Adaptation often proceeds via the sorting of standing variation, and natural selection acting on pairs of populations is a quantitative continuum ranging from parallel to divergent. Yet, it is unclear how the extent of parallel genetic evolution during adaptation from standing variation is affected by the difference in the direction of selection between populations. Nor is it clear whether the availability of standing variation for adaptation affects progress toward speciation in a manner that depends on the difference in the direction of selection. We conducted a theoretical study investigating these questions and have two primary findings. First, the extent of parallel genetic evolution between two populations is expected to rapidly decline as the difference in their directions of selection increases from fully parallel toward divergent, and this decline occurs more rapidly in organisms with greater trait dimensionality. This rapid decline results because seemingly small differences in the direction of selection cause steep reductions in the fraction of alleles that are beneficial in both populations. For example, populations adapting to optima separated by an angle of 33{degrees} have only 50% of potentially beneficial alleles in common (for a case of five trait dimensions). Second, we find that adaptation from standing variation leads to higher ecologically-dependent hybrid fitness under parallel selection, relative to when adaptation is from new mutation only. This occurs because genetic parallelism based on standing variation reduces the phenotypic segregation variance in hybrids when parents adapt to similar environments. In contrast, under divergent selection, the pleiotropic effects of alternative alleles fixed from standing variation change the major axes of phenotypic variation in hybrids and reduce their fitness in parental habitats. We conclude that adaptation from standing genetic variation is expected to slow progress toward speciation via parallel natural selection and can facilitate progress toward speciation via divergent natural selection.\n\nImpact summaryIt is increasingly clear that much of adaptation, especially that which occurs rapidly, proceeds from the sorting of ancestral standing variation rather than complete reliance on de novo mutation. In addition, evolutionary biologists are increasingly embracing the fact that the difference in the direction of natural selection on pairs of populations is a quantitative continuum ranging from completely parallel to completely divergent. In this article, we ask two questions. First, how does the degree of genetic parallelism--here, adaptation using the same alleles in allopatric populations--depend on the differences in the direction of natural selection acting on two populations, from parallel (0{degrees}) to divergent (180{degrees})? And second, how does adaptation from standing variation affect progress toward speciation, and does its effect depend on the direction of natural selection? We develop theory to address these questions. We first find that very small differences in the direction of selection (angle) can largely preclude genetic parallelism. Second, we find that adaptation from standing variation has implications for speciation that change along the continuum from parallel to divergent selection. Under parallel selection, high genetic parallelism causes inter-population hybrids to have high mean fitness when their parents adapt from standing variation. As selection tends toward divergent, adaptation from standing variation is less beneficial for hybrid fitness and under completely divergent selection causes inter-population hybrids to have lower mean fitness than when adaptation was from new mutation alone. In sum, our results provide general insight into patterns of genetic parallelism and speciation along the continuum of parallel to divergent natural selection when adaptation is from standing variation.

evolutionary biology↗

Haploid selection, sex ratio bias, and transitions between sex-determining systems

Sex determination is remarkably dynamic; many taxa display shifts in the location of sex-determining loci or the evolution of entirely new sex-determining systems. Predominant theories for why we observe such transitions generally conclude that novel sex-determining systems are favoured by selection if they equalise the sex ratio or increase linkage with a locus that experiences different selection in males vs. females. We use population genetic models to extend these theories in two ways: (1) We consider the dynamics of loci very tightly linked to the ancestral sex-determining loci, e.g., within the non-recombining region of the ancestral sex chromosomes. Variation at such loci can favour the spread of new sex-determining systems in which the heterogametic sex changes (XY to ZW or ZW to XY) and the new sex-determining region is less closely linked (or even unlinked) to the locus under selection. (2) We consider selection upon haploid genotypes either during gametic competition (e.g., pollen competition) or meiosis (i.e., non-Mendelian segregation), which can cause the zygotic sex ratio to become biased. Haploid selection can drive transitions between sex-determining systems without requiring selection to act differently in diploid males vs. females. With haploid selection, we find that transitions between male and female heterogamety can evolve where linkage with the sex-determining locus is either strengthened or weakened. Furthermore, we find that sex-ratio biases may increase or decrease with the spread of new sex chromosomes, which implies that transitions between sex-determining systems cannot be simply predicted by selection to equalise the sex ratio. In fact, under many conditions, we find that transitions in sex determination are favoured equally strongly in cases where the sex ratio bias increases or decreases. Overall, our models predict that sex determination systems should be highly dynamic, particularly when haploid selection is present, consistent with the evolutionary lability of this trait in many taxa.\n\nAuthor summarySystems of sex determination are strikingly diverse and labile in many clades. This poses the question: what drives transitions between sex-determining systems? Here, we use models to derive conditions under which new sex-determining systems spread. Prevailing views suggest that new sex-determining systems are favoured when they equalize the sex ratio and/or when they are more closely linked to genes that experience differential selection in males and females. Our models include selection upon haploid genotypes (meiotic drive or gametic competition), which biases the sex-ratio and occurs differently in male and female gametes. Surprisingly, we find the two forces (selection to equalize the sex ratio and the benefits of hitchhiking alongside driven alleles that distort the sex ratio) will often be equally strong, and thus neither is sufficient to explain the spread of new sex-determining systems in every case. We also find that new sex-determining alleles can spread despite being less closely linked to selected loci as long as initial linkage is tight or haploid selection is present. Our models therefore predict that loci in previously unexpected genomic locations and/or experiencing various types of selection (including haploid selection) can now be implicated as drivers of transitions between sex-determining systems.

evolutionary biology↗