Stimulus history, not expectation, drives sensory prediction errors in mammalian cortex
Hierarchical predictive coding (HPC) models have recently flourished in neuroscience1-9. Feedforward and feedback processing are at the heart of HPC models. Previous experimental studies using fMRI, EEG/MEG, and LFP9-11 do not reliably resolve feedback modulation from local computations and feedforward outputs. Here, using open-science8, multi-species, multi-area, high-density12, laminar neurophysiology13, we empirically test whether hierarchical predictive coding is a key component shaping cortical processing of visual stimuli. To isolate visual information processing and eliminate motor/reward confounders9-11, we use a no-report task. Our task leveraged so-called global oddballs (GO) as unpredictable, deviant stimuli that circumvent low-level adaptation. We examined their responses relative to local oddballs (LO) that we habituated into highly predictable priors. Four surprising findings in this dataset challenge many existing hierarchical predictive coding models. First, GO responses were exclusive to higher-order, more cognitive areas rather than early-to-mid visual cortex. Second, inhibitory interneuron-targeted optogenetics in primates and mice and waveform shape analysis in primates revealed no evidence that predictive suppression was implemented via these interneurons. Third, highly predictable LO responses dominated in over 50% of all neurons, including in higher-order cortex, which should have anticipated them, indicating limited evidence for predictive suppression. Lastly, prediction error responses evoked by GOs did not evoke feedforward processing. These results reveal circuit dynamics that govern how prediction shapes visual processing, motivating more neurally constrained predictive processing models.