Castillo, K. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2018

Corals sustain growth but not skeletal density across the Florida Keys Reef Tract despite ongoing warming

Through the continuous growth of their carbonate skeletons, corals record invaluable information about past environmental conditions and their effect on colony fitness. Here, we characterize century-scale growth records of inner and outer reef corals across ~200 km of the Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT) using skeletal cores extracted from two ubiquitous reef-building species, Siderastrea siderea and Pseudodiploria strigosa. We find that corals across the FKRT have sustained extension and calcification rates over the past century but have experienced a long-term reduction in skeletal density, regardless of reef zone. Notably, P. strigosa colonies exhibit temporary reef zone-dependent reductions in extension rate corresponding to two known extreme temperature events in 1969-70 and 1997-98. We propose that the subtropical climate of the FKRT may buffer corals from chronic growth declines associated with climate warming, though the significant reduction in skeletal density may indicate underlying vulnerability to present and future trends in ocean acidification.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Nearshore corals on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System on pace to cease growing as soon as year 2110

Anthropogenic global change and local anthropogenic stressors are decreasing coral growth and survival globally, thus altering the structure and function of coral reef ecosystems. We show that skeletal extension rates of nearshore colonies of Siderastrea siderea and Pseudodiploria strigosa across the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS) have declined at average rates of 0.01 and 0.08 mm/yr, respectively, over approximately the past century, while offshore conspecifics exhibited no significant trend in extension with time. This caused extension rates of nearshore colonies to converge with their historically slower-growing offshore conspecifics. Bleaching events negatively impacted extension rates in S. siderea but not in P. strigosa. The more negative trend in linear extension for nearshore versus offshore colonies may arise from ocean warming combined with stronger land-based anthropogenic stressors within nearshore environments. Extrapolating these trends in linear extension into the future suggests that nearshore P. strigosa and S. siderea will cease growing by years 2110 and 2370, respectively.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

The social and spatial ecology of dengue presence and burden during an outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2012

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is an ongoing public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics, yet we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatial dynamics and social-ecological risk factors associated with a recent dengue outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador. We examined georeferenced dengue cases (n = 4,248) and block-level census data variables to identify potential social-ecological variables associated with the presence and burden of dengue fever in Guayaquil in 2012. We applied LISA and Morans I tests to analyze hotspots of dengue cases and used multimodel selection in R computing language to identify covariates associated with dengue incidence at the census zone level. Significant hotspots of dengue transmission were found near the North Central and Southern portions of Guayaquil. Significant risk factors for presence of dengue included poor housing conditions (e.g., poor condition of ceiling, floors, and walls), access to paved roads, and receipt of remittances. Counterintuitive positive correlations with dengue presence were observed with several municipal services such as garbage collection and access to piped water. Risk factors for the increased burden of dengue included poor housing conditions, garbage collection, receipt of remittances, and sharing a property with more than one household. Social factors such as education and household demographics were negatively correlated with increased dengue burden. Our findings elucidate underlying differences with dengue presence and burden and indicate the potential to develop dengue vulnerability and risk maps to inform disease prevention and control - information that is also relevant for emerging epidemics of chikungunya and zika.\n\nHighlightsO_LIIn 2012, Guayaquil, Ecuador had a large outbreak of dengue cases\nC_LIO_LIDengue case presence and burden exhibited spatial heterogeneity at the census block level\nC_LIO_LISocial-ecological drivers of case presence and burden differed in this outbreak, highlighting the need to model both types of epidemiological data\nC_LIO_LIAccess to municipal resources such as garbage collection and piped water had counterintuitive relationships with dengue presence, but poor housing, garbage collection and remittances correlated to dengue burden.\nC_LIO_LIOur findings inform risk mapping and vector control and surveillance allocation, relevant to this and other concurrent emergent epidemics such as chikungunya and zika\nC_LI

epidemiology↗