Biology subjects

Bowden, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Bowden, J..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Genome-wide association analysis of excessive daytime sleepiness identifies 42 loci that suggest phenotypic subgroups

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) affects 10-20% of the population and is associated with substantial functional deficits. We identified 42 loci for self-reported EDS in GWAS of 452,071 individuals from the UK Biobank, with enrichment for genes expressed in brain tissues and in neuronal transmission pathways. We confirmed the aggregate effect of a genetic risk score of 42 SNPs on EDS in independent Scandinavian cohorts and on other sleep disorders (restless leg syndrome, insomnia) and sleep traits (duration, chronotype, accelerometer-derived sleep efficiency and daytime naps or inactivity). Strong genetic correlations were also seen with obesity, coronary heart disease, psychiatric diseases, cognitive traits and reproductive ageing. EDS variants clustered into two predominant composite phenotypes - sleep propensity and sleep fragmentation - with the former showing stronger evidence for enriched expression in central nervous system tissues, suggesting two unique mechanistic pathways. Mendelian randomization analysis indicated that higher BMI is causally associated with EDS risk, but EDS does not appear to causally influence BMI.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Evaluation of the causal effect of fibrinogen on incident coronary heart disease via Mendelian randomization

BackgroundFibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infraction (MI) using Mendelian randomization (MR) used single variant approaches, and did not take advantage of recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or multi-variant, pleiotropy robust MR methodologies.\n\nMethods and FindingsWe evaluated evidence for a causal effect of fibrinogen on both CHD and MI using MR. We used both an allele score approach and pleiotropy robust MR models. The allele score was composed of 38 fibrinogen-associated variants from recent GWAS. Initial analyses using the allele score incorporated data from 11 European-ancestry prospective cohorts to examine incidence CHD and MI. We also applied 2 sample MR methods with data from a prevalent CHD and MI GWAS. Results are given in terms of the hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR), depending on the study design, and associated 95% confidence interval (CI).\n\nIn single variant analyses no causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD or MI was observed. In multi-variant analyses using incidence CHD cases and the allele score approach, the estimated causal effect (HR) of a 1 g/L higher fibrinogen concentration was 1.62 (CI = 1.12, 2.36) when using incident cases and the allele score approach. In 2 sample MR analyses that accounted for pleiotropy, the causal estimate (OR) was reduced to 1.18 (CI = 0.98, 1.42) and 1.09 (CI = 0.89, 1.33) in the 2 most precise (smallest CI) models, out of 4 models evaluated. In the 2 sample MR analyses for MI, there was only very weak evidence of a causal effect in only 1 out of 4 models.\n\nConclusionsA small causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD is observed using multi-variant MR approaches which account for pleiotropy, but not single variant MR approaches. Taken together, results indicate that even with large sample sizes and multi-variant approaches MR analyses still cannot exclude the null when estimating the causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD, but that any potential causal effect is likely to be much smaller than observed in epidemiological studies.\n\nAuthor SummaryInitial Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses of the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) utilized single variants and did not take advantage of modern, multivariant approaches. This manuscript provides an important update to these initial analyses by incorporating larger sample sizes and employing multiple, modern multi-variant MR approaches to account for pleiotropy. We used incident cases to perform a MR study of the causal effect of fibrinogen on incident CHD and the nested outcome of myocardial infarction (MI) using an allele score approach. Then using data from a case-control genome-wide association study for CHD and MI we performed two sample MR analyses with multiple, pleiotropy robust approaches. Overall, the results indicated that associations between fibrinogen and CHD in observational studies are likely upwardly biased from any underlying causal effect. Single variant MR approaches show little evidence of a causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD or MI. Multi-variant MR analyses of fibrinogen on CHD indicate there may be a small positive effect, however this result needs to be interpreted carefully as the 95% confidence intervals were still consistent with a null effect. Multi-variant MR approaches did not suggest evidence of even a small causal effect of fibrinogen on MI.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

An examination of multivariable Mendelian randomization in the single sample and two-sample summary data settings.

BackgroundMendelian Randomisation (MR) is a powerful tool in epidemiology which can be used to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unobserved confounding, by utilising genetic variants that are instrumental variables (IVs) for the exposure. This has been extended to Multivariable MR (MVMR) to estimate the effect of two or more exposures on an outcome.\n\nMethods/ResultsWe use simulations and theory to clarify the interpretation of estimated effects in a MVMR analysis under a range of underlying scenarios, where a secondary exposure acts variously as a confounder, a mediator, a pleiotropic pathway and a collider. We then describe how instrument strength and validity can be assessed for an MVMR analysis in the single sample setting, and develop tests to assess these assumptions in the popular two-sample summary data setting. We illustrate our methods using data from UK biobank to estimate the effect of education and cognitive ability on body mass index.\n\nConclusionMVMR analysis consistently estimates the effect of an exposure, or exposures, of interest and provides a powerful tool for determining causal effects in a wide range of scenarios with either individual or summary level data.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

GWAS in 446,118 European adults identifies 78 genetic loci for self-reported habitual sleep duration supported by accelerometer-derived estimates

Sleep is an essential homeostatically-regulated state of decreased activity and alertness conserved across animal species, and both short and long sleep duration associate with chronic disease and all-cause mortality1,2. Defining genetic contributions to sleep duration could point to regulatory mechanisms and clarify causal disease relationships. Through genome-wide association analyses in 446,118 participants of European ancestry from the UK Biobank, we discover 78 loci for self-reported sleep duration that further impact accelerometer-derived measures of sleep duration, daytime inactivity duration, sleep efficiency and number of sleep bouts in a subgroup (n=85,499) with up to 7-day accelerometry. Associations are enriched for genes expressed in several brain regions, and for pathways including striatum and subpallium development, mechanosensory response, dopamine binding, synaptic neurotransmission, catecholamine production, synaptic plasticity, and unsaturated fatty acid metabolism. Genetic correlation analysis indicates shared biological links between sleep duration and psychiatric, cognitive, anthropometric and metabolic traits and Mendelian randomization highlights a causal link of longer sleep with schizophrenia.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

Genome-wide association analyses of chronotype in 697,828 individuals provides new insights into circadian rhythms in humans and links to disease

Using genome-wide data from 697,828 research participants from 23andMe and UK Biobank, we increase the number of identified loci associated with being a morning person, a behavioural indicator of a persons underlying circadian rhythm, from 24 to 351. Using data from 85,760 individuals with activity-monitor derived measures of sleep timing we show that the chronotype loci influence sleep timing: the mean sleep timing of the 5% of individuals carrying the most "morningness" alleles was 25 minutes earlier than the 5% carrying the fewest. The loci were enriched for genes involved in circadian regulation, cAMP, glutamate and insulin signalling pathways, and those expressed in the retina, hindbrain, hypothalamus, and pituitary. We provide evidence that being a morning person is causally associated with better mental health but does not appear to affect BMI or Type 2 diabetes. This study offers new insights into the biology of circadian rhythms and links to disease in humans.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

The median and the mode as robust meta-analysis methods in the presence of small study effects

Meta-analyses based on systematic literature reviews are commonly used to obtain a quantitative summary of the available evidence on a given topic. Despite its attractive simplicity, and its established position at the summit of the evidence-based medicine hierarchy, the reliability of any meta-analysis is largely constrained by the quality of its constituent studies. One major limitation is small study effects, whose presence can often easily be detected, but not so easily adjusted for. Here, robust methods of estimation based on the median and mode are proposed as tools to increase the reliability of findings in a meta-analysis. By re-examining data from published meta-analyses, and by conducting a detailed simulation study, we show that these two simple methods offer notable robustness to a range of plausible bias mechanisms, without making any explicit modelling assumptions. In conclusion, when performing a meta-analysis with suspected small study effects, we recommend reporting the mean, median and modal pooled estimates as a simple but informative sensitivity analyses.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Biological and clinical insights from genetics of insomnia symptoms

Insomnia is a common disorder linked with adverse long-term medical and psychiatric outcomes, but underlying pathophysiological processes and causal relationships with disease are poorly understood. Here we identify 57 loci for self-reported insomnia symptoms in the UK Biobank (n=453,379) and confirm their impact on self-reported insomnia symptoms in the HUNT study (n=14,923 cases, 47,610 controls), physician diagnosed insomnia in Partners Biobank (n=2,217 cases, 14,240 controls), and accelerometer-derived measures of sleep efficiency and sleep duration in the UK Biobank (n=83,726). Our results suggest enrichment of genes involved in ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis, phototransduction and muscle development pathways and of genes expressed in multiple brain regions, skeletal muscle and adrenal gland. Evidence of shared genetic factors is found between frequent insomnia symptoms and restless legs syndrome, aging, cardio-metabolic, behavioral, psychiatric and reproductive traits. Evidence is found for a possible causal link between insomnia symptoms and coronary heart disease, depressive symptoms and subjective well-being.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryWe identify 57 genomic regions associated with insomnia pointing to the involvement of phototransduction and ubiquitination and potential causal links to CAD and depression.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2017

Improving the visualisation, interpretation and analysis of two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization via the radial plot and radial regression

BackgroundSummary data furnishing a two-sample Mendelian randomization study are often visualized with the aid of a scatter plot, in which single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-outcome associations are plotted against the SNP-exposure associations to provide an immediate picture of the causal effect estimate for each individual variant. It is also convenient to overlay the standard inverse variance weighted (IVW) estimate of causal effect as a fitted slope, to see whether an individual SNP provides evidence that supports, or conflicts with, the overall consensus. Unfortunately, the traditional scatter plot is not the most appropriate means to achieve this aim whenever SNP-outcome associations are estimated with varying degrees of precision and this is reflected in the analysis.\n\nMethodsWe propose instead to use a small modification of the scatter plot - the Galbraith radial plot - for the presentation of data and results from an MR study, which enjoys many advantages over the original method. On a practical level it removes the need to recode the genetic data and enables a more straightforward detection of outliers and influential data points. Its use extends beyond the purely aesthetic, however, to suggest a more general modelling framework to operate within when conducting an MR study, including a new form of MR-Egger regression.\n\nResultsWe illustrate the methods using data from a two-sample Mendelian randomization study to probe the causal effect of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk, allowing for the possible effects of pleiotropy. The radial plot is shown to aid the detection of a single outlying variant which is responsible for large differences between IVW and MR-Egger regression estimates. Several additional plots are also proposed for informative data visualisation.\n\nConclusionThe radial plot should be considered in place of the scatter plot for visualising, analysing and interpreting data from a two-sample summary data MR study. Software is provided to help facilitate its use.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Detecting and correcting for bias in Mendelian randomization analyses using gene-by-environment interactions

BackgroundMendelian randomization has developed into an established method for strengthening causal inference and estimating causal effects, largely due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies. However, genetic instruments remain controversial as pleiotropic effects can introduce bias into causal estimates. Recent work has highlighted the potential of gene-environment interactions in detecting and correcting for pleiotropic bias in Mendelian randomization analyses.\n\nMethodsWe introduce MR using Gene-by-Environment interactions (MRGxE) as a framework capable of identifying and correcting for pleiotropic bias, drawing upon developments in econometrics and epidemiology. If an instrument-covariate interaction induces variation in the association between a genetic instrument and exposure, it is possible to identify and correct for pleiotropic effects. The interpretation of MRGxE is similar to conventional summary Mendelian randomization approaches, with a particular advantage of MRGxE being the ability to assess the validity of an individual instrument.\n\nResultsWe investigate the effect of BMI upon systolic blood pressure (SBP) using data from the UK Biobank and the GIANT consortium using a single instrument (a weighted allelic score). We find MRGxE produces findings in agreement with MR Egger regression in a two-sample summary MR setting, however, association estimates obtained across all methods differ considerably when excluding related participants or individuals of non-European ancestry. This could be a consequence of selection bias, though there is also potential for introducing bias by using a mixed ancestry population. Further, we assess the performance of MRGxE with respect to identifying and correcting for horizontal pleiotropy in a simulation setting, highlighting the utility of the approach even when the MRGxE assumptions are violated.\n\nConclusionsBy utilising instrument-covariate interactions within a linear regression framework, it is possible to identify and correct for pleiotropic bias, provided the average magnitude of pleiotropy is constant across interaction covariate subgroups.\n\nO_TEXTBOXKey MessagesO_LIInstrument-covariate interactions can be used to identify pleiotropic bias in Mendelian randomization analyses, provided they induce sufficient variation in the association between the genetic instrument and exposure.\nC_LIO_LIBy regressing the gene-outcome association upon the gene-exposure association across interaction covariate subgroups, it is possible to obtain an estimate of the average pleiotropic effect and a causal effect estimate.\nC_LIO_LIThe interpretation of MRGxE is analogous to that of MR-Egger regression.\nC_LIO_LIThe approach serves as a valuable test for directional pleiotropy and can be used to inform instrument selection.\nC_LI\n\nC_TEXTBOX

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Investigating causality in associations between education and smoking: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BackgroundLower educational attainment is associated with increased rates of smoking, but ascertaining causality is challenging. We used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses of summary statistics to examine whether educational attainment is causally related to smoking.\n\nMethods and FindingsWe used summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of educational attainment and a range of smoking phenotypes (smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, cotinine levels and smoking cessation). Various complementary MR techniques (inverse-variance weighted regression, MR Egger, weighted-median regression) were used to test the robustness of our results. We found broadly consistent evidence across these techniques that higher educational attainment leads to reduced likelihood of smoking initiation, reduced heaviness of smoking among smokers (as measured via self-report and cotinine levels), and greater likelihood of smoking cessation among smokers.\n\nConclusionsOur findings indicate a causal association between low educational attainment and increased risk of smoking, and may explain the observational associations between educational attainment and adverse health outcomes such as risk of coronary heart disease.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Automating Mendelian randomization through machine learning to construct a putative causal map of the human phenome

A major application for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has been the emerging field of causal inference using Mendelian randomization (MR), where the causal effect between a pair of traits can be estimated using only summary level data. MR depends on SNPs exhibiting vertical pleiotropy, where the SNP influences an outcome phenotype only through an exposure phenotype. Issues arise when this assumption is violated due to SNPs exhibiting horizontal pleiotropy. We demonstrate that across a range of pleiotropy models, instrument selection will be increasingly liable to selecting invalid instruments as GWAS sample sizes continue to grow. Methods have been developed in an attempt to protect MR from different patterns of horizontal pleiotropy, and here we have designed a mixture-of-experts machine learning framework (MR-MoE 1.0) that predicts the most appropriate model to use for any specific causal analysis, improving on both power and false discovery rates. Using the approach, we systematically estimated the causal effects amongst 2407 phenotypes. Almost 90% of causal estimates indicated some level of horizontal pleiotropy. The causal estimates are organised into a publicly available graph database (http://eve.mrbase.org), and we use it here to highlight the numerous challenges that remain in automated causal inference.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Improving the accuracy of two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization: moving beyond the NOME assumption

BackgroundTwo-sample summary data Mendelian randomization (MR) incorporating multiple genetic variants within a meta-analysis framework is a popular technique for assessing causality in epidemiology. If all genetic variants satisfy the instrumental variable (IV) and necessary modelling assumptions, then their individual ratio estimates of causal effect should be homogeneous. Observed heterogeneity signals that one or more of these assumptions could have been violated.\n\nMethodsCausal estimation and heterogeneity assessment in MR requires an approximation for the variance, or equivalently the inverse-variance weight, of each ratio estimate. We show that the most popular 1st order weights can lead to an inflation in the chances of detecting heterogeneity when in fact it is not present. Conversely, ostensibly more accurate 2nd order weights can dramatically increase the chances of failing to detect heterogeneity, when it is truly present. We derive modified weights to mitigate both of these adverse effects.\n\nResultsUsing Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the modified weights outperform 1st and 2nd order weights in terms of heterogeneity quantification. Modified weights are also shown to remove the phenomenon of regression dilution bias in MR estimates obtained from weak instruments, unlike those obtained using 1st and 2nd order weights. However, with small numbers of weak instruments, this comes at the cost of a reduction in estimate precision and power to detect a causal effect compared to 1st order weighting. Moreover, 1st order weights always furnish unbiased estimates and preserve the type I error rate under the causal null. We illustrate the utility of the new method using data from a recent two-sample summary data MR analysis to assess the causal role of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk.\n\nConclusionsWe propose the use of modified weights within two-sample summary data MR studies for accurately quantifying heterogeneity and detecting outliers in the presence of weak instruments. Modified weights also have an important role to play in terms of causal estimation (in tandem with 1st order weights) but further research is required to understand their strengths and weaknesses in specific settings.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Investigating the role of insulin in increased adiposity: Bi-directional Mendelian randomization study

Insulin may serve as a key causal agent which regulates fat accumulation in the body. Here we assessed the causal relationship between fasting insulin and adiposity using publicly-available results from two large-scale genome-wide association studies for body mass index and fasting insulin levels in a two-sample, bidirectional Mendelian Randomized approach. This approach is only valid on the condition that the two instruments are independent of one another. In analysis excluding overlapping loci, there was an increase of 0.20 (0.17, 0.23) log pmol/L fasting insulin per SD increase in BMI (P= 2.80 x 10-36), while there was a null effect of fasting insulin on BMI, with a 0.01 (-0.39, 0.38) SD decrease in BMI per log pmol/L increase in fasting insulin (P= 0.98). Furthermore, a high degree of heterogeneity in the causal estimates was obtained from the insulin-related variants, which may be attributed to varying mechanisms of action of the insulin-associated variants. Results were largely consistent when an Egger regression technique and weighted median and mode estimators were applied. Findings suggest that the positive correlation between adiposity and fasting insulin levels are at least in part explained by the causal effect of adiposity on increasing insulin, rather than vice versa.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

The causal effect of educational attainment on Alzheimer’s disease: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BackgroundObservational evidence suggests that higher educational attainment is protective for Alzheimers disease (AD). It is unclear whether this association is causal or confounded by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We examined the causal effect of educational attainment on AD in a two-sample MR framework.\n\nMethodsWe extracted all available effect estimates of the 74 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with years of schooling from the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (N=293,723) and the GWAS of AD conducted by the International Genomics of Alzheimers Project (n=17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls). SNP-exposure and SNP-outcome coefficients were combined using an inverse variance weighted approach, providing an estimate of the causal effect of each SD increase in years of schooling on AD. We also performed appropriate sensitivity analyses examining the robustness of causal effect estimates to the various assumptions and conducted simulation analyses to examine potential survival bias of MR analyses.\n\nFindingsWith each SD increase in years of schooling (3.51 years), the odds of AD were, on average, reduced by approximately one third (odds ratio= 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48 to 0.83, p<0.001). Causal effect estimates were consistent when using causal methods with varying MR assumptions or different sets of SNPs for educational attainment, lending confidence to the magnitude and direction of effect in our main findings. There was also no evidence of survival bias in our study.\n\nInterpretationOur findings support a causal role of educational attainment on AD, whereby an additional [~]3.5 years of schooling reduces the odds of AD by approximately one third.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Association Between Genetically Elevated Levels Of Inflammatory Biomarkers And Risk Of Schizophrenia: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomisation Study

BackgroundPositive associations between inflammatory biomarkers and risk of psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, have been reported in observational studies. However, conventional observational studies are prone to bias such as reverse causation and residual confounding.\n\nMethodsIn this study, we used summary data to evaluate the association of genetically elevated C reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) and soluble interleukin-6 receptor (IL-6R) levels with schizophrenia in a two-sample Mendelian randomisation design.\n\nResultsThe pooled odds ratio estimate using 18 CRP genetic instruments was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.84; 0.97) per two-fold increment in CRP levels; consistent results were obtained using different Mendelian randomisation methods and a more conservative set of instruments. The odds ratio for soluble IL-6R was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01; 1.12) per two-fold increment. Estimates for IL-1Ra were inconsistent among instruments and pooled estimates were imprecise and centred on the null.\n\nConclusionUnder Mendelian randomisation assumptions, our findings suggest a protective causal effect of CRP and a risk-increasing causal effect of soluble IL-6R (potentially mediated at least in part by CRP) on schizophrenia risk.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Robust Inference In Two-Sample Mendelian Randomisation Via The Zero Modal Pleiotropy Assumption

BackgroundMendelian randomisation (MR) is being increasingly used to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. Availability of summary data of genetic associations for a variety of phenotypes from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) allows straightforward application of MR using summary data methods, typically in a two-sample design. In addition to the conventional inverse variance weighting (IVW) method, recently developed summary data MR methods, such as the MR-Egger and weighted median approaches, allow a relaxation of the instrumental variable assumptions.\n\nMethodsHere, a new method -the mode-based estimate (MBE) - is proposed to obtain a single causal effect estimate from multiple genetic instruments. The MBE is consistent when the largest number of similar (identical in infinite samples) individual-instrument causal effect estimates comes from valid instruments, even if the majority of instruments are invalid. We evaluate the performance of the method in simulations designed to mimic the two-sample summary data setting, and demonstrate its use by investigating the causal effect of plasma lipid fractions and urate levels on coronary heart disease risk.\n\nResultsThe MBE presented less bias and type-I error rates than other methods under the null in many situations. Its power to detect a causal effect was smaller compared to the IVW and weighted median methods, but was larger than that of MR-Egger regression, with sample size requirements typically smaller than those available from GWAS consortia.\n\nConclusionsThe MBE relaxes the instrumental variable assumptions, and should be used in combination with other approaches in a sensitivity analysis.\n\nKey MessagesO_LISummary data Mendelian randomisation, typically in a two-sample setting, is being increasingly used due to the availability of summary association results from large genome- wide association studies.\nC_LIO_LIMendelian randomisation analyses using multiple genetic instruments are prone to bias due to horizontal pleiotropy, especially when genetic instruments are selected based solely on statistical criteria.\nC_LIO_LIA causal effect estimate robust to horizontal pleiotropy can be obtained using the mode- based estimate (MBE).\nC_LIO_LIThe MBE requires that the most common causal effect estimate is a consistent estimate of the true causal effect, even if the majority of instruments are invalid (i.e., the ZEro Modal Pleiotropy Assumption, or ZEMPA).\nC_LIO_LIPlotting the smoothed empirical density function is useful to explore the distribution of causal effect estimates, and to understand how the MBE is determined.\nC_LI

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Testing the principles of Mendelian randomization: Opportunities and complications on a genomewide scale

BackgroundMendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to assess whether observational associations between exposures and disease reflect causal relationships. MR requires genetic variants to be independent of factors that confound observational associations.\n\nMethodsUsing data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, associations within and between 121 phenotypes and 13,720 genetic variants (from the NHGRI-EBI GWAS catalog) were examined to assess the validity of MR assumptions.\n\nResultsAmongst 7,260 pairwise comparisons between the 121 phenotypes, 2,188 (30%) provided evidence of association, where 363 were expected at the 5% level (observed:expected ratio=6.03; 95% CI: 5.42, 6.70; {chi}2=9682.29; d.f. =1, P[≤]1x10-50). Amongst 1,660,120 pairwise associations between phenotypes and genotypes, 86,748 (5.2%) gave evidence of association at the same threshold, where 83,006 were expected (observed:expected ratio=1.05; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.05; {chi}2=117.57; d.f. =1, P=2.15x10-27). Amongst 1,171,764 pairwise associations between the phenotypes and LD pruned independent genetic variants, 60,136 (5.1%) gave evidence of association, where 58,588 were expected (observed:expected ratio=1.03; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.08; {chi}2= 43.05; d.f. = 1, P=5.33x10-11).\n\nConclusionThese results confirm previously observed patterns of phenotypic correlation. They also provide evidence of a substantially lower level of association between genetic variants and phenotypes, with residual inflation the likely product of indistinguishable real genetic association, multiple variables measuring the same biological phenomena, or pleiotropy. These results reflect the favorable properties of genetic instruments for estimating causal relationships, but confirm the need for functional information or analytical methods to account for pleiotropic events.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Education and coronary heart disease: a Mendelian randomization study

ObjectivesTo determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease.\n\nDesignMendelian randomization study, where genetic data are used as proxies for education, in order to minimize confounding. A two-sample design was applied, where summary level genetic data was analysed from two publically available consortia.\n\nSettingIn the main analysis, we analysed genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAM and SSGAC), comprising of 112 cohorts from predominantly high-income countries. In addition, we also analysed genetic data from 7 additional large consortia, in order to identify putative causal mediators.\n\nParticipantsThe main analysis was of 589 377 men and women, predominantly of European origin.\n\nExposureA one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (i.e. 3.6 years of additional schooling). This was measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education.\n\nMain outcomeCombined fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events).\n\nResults3.6 years of additional education lowered the risk of coronary heart disease by a third (odds ratio = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.77, p=0.01). Equivalent increases in education were also causally associated with reductions in smoking, BMI and improvements in blood lipid profiles.\n\nConclusionsMore time spent in education is causally associated with a large reduction in the risk of coronary heart disease. This may be partly explained by changes to smoking, BMI and a blood lipids. These findings offer support for policy interventions that increase education, in order to also reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease.

epidemiology↗