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bioRxiv2017

Assessing the causal role of body mass index on cardiovascular health in young adults: Mendelian randomization and recall-by-genotype analyses

BackgroundMendelian randomization (MR) studies of body mass index (BMI) and cardiovascular health in mid-to-late life suggest causal relationships, but the nature of these has not been explored systematically at younger ages. Using complementary MR and recall-by-genotype (RbG) methodologies, our objective was to estimate the causal effect of BMI on detailed measures of cardiovascular health in a population of young healthy adults.\n\nMethods and FindingsData from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used. For MR analyses, a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising 97 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and constructed using external weighting was used as an instrument to test the causal effect of each unit increase in BMI (kg/m2) on selected cardiovascular phenotypes measured at age 17 (N=7909). An independent enriched sample from the same cohort participated in a RbG study at age 21, which enabled more detailed cardiovascular phenotyping (N=418; 191/227 from the lower/upper [~]30% of a genome-wide GRS distribution predicting variation in BMI). The causal effect of BMI on the additional cardiovascular phenotypes was assessed by comparing the two recalled groups. Difference in mean BMI between RbG groups was 3.85kg/m2 (95% CI: 2.53, 4.63; P=6.09x1011). In both MR and RbG analyses, results indicated that higher BMI causes higher blood pressure (BP) and left ventricular mass (indexed to height2.7, LVMI) in young adults (e.g. difference in LVMI per kg/m2 using MR: 1.07g/m2.7; 95% CI: 0.62, 1.52; P=3.87x10-06 and per 3.58kg/m2 using RbG: 1.65g/m2.7 95% CI: 0.83, 2.47; P=0.0001). Additionally, RbG results indicated a causal role of higher BMI on higher stroke volume (SV; difference per 3.58kg/m2: 1.49ml/m2.04; 95% CI: 0.62, 2.35; P=0.001) and cardiac output (CO; difference per 3.58kg/m2: 0.11l /min/m1.83; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.19; P=0.01). Neither analysis supported a causal role of higher BMI on heart rate.\n\nConclusionsComplementary MR and RbG causal methodologies, together with a range of appropriate sensitivity analyses, showed that higher BMI is likely to cause worse cardiovascular health, specifically higher BP and LVMI, even in youth. These consistent results support efforts to prevent or reverse obesity in the young.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Assessing the distribution and determinants of vaccine underutilization in the United States

Despite advances in sanitation and immunization, vaccine-preventable diseases remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In high-income countries such as the United States, coverage rates for vaccination against childhood infections remains high. However, the phenomenon of vaccine hesitancy makes maintenance of herd immunity difficult, impeding global disease eradication efforts. Reaching the last mile will require early detection of vaccine hesitancy (driven by philosophical or religious choices), identifying pockets of susceptibility due to underimmunization (driven by vaccine unavailability, costs ineligibility), determining the factors associated with the behavior and developing targeted strategies to ameliorate the concerns. Towards this goal, we harness high-resolution medical claims data to geographically localize vaccine refusal and underimmunization (collectively, underutilization) in the United States and identify the socio-economic determinants of the behaviors. Our study represents the first large-scale effort for vaccination behavior surveillance and has the potential to aid in the development of targeted public health strategies for optimizing vaccine uptake.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Distinct Blood DNA Methylation Profiles In Subtypes Of Orofacial Cleft

BackgroundThere is evidence that different subtypes of orofacial cleft have distinct aetiologies, although the precise molecular mechanisms underlying these are unknown. Given the key role of epigenetic processes such as DNA methylation in embryonic development, it is likely that aberrant DNA methylation may also play a part in the development of orofacial clefts.\n\nMethodsIn this study, we explored whether blood samples from children with different cleft subtypes showed distinct DNA methylation profiles.\n\nIn whole blood samples from 150 children from the Cleft Collective cohort study, we measured DNA methylation at over 450,000 sites on the genome. We then carried out epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) to test the association between methylation at each site and cleft subtype (cleft lip only CLO n=50; cleft palate only CPO n=50; cleft lip and palate CLP n=50).\n\nResultsWe found four genomic regions differentially methylated in CLO compared to CLP, 17 in CPO compared to CLP and 294 in CPO compared to CLO. These regions included several mapping to genes that have previously been implicated in the development of orofacial clefts (for example, TBX1, COL11A2, HOXA2, PDGFRA) and over 250 novel associations.\n\nConclusionOur finding of distinct methylation profiles in different cleft subtypes might reflect differences in their aetiologies, with DNA methylation either playing a causal role in development of OFC subtypes or reflecting causal genetic or environmental factors.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Vaccination of health care workers to control Ebola virus disease

BackgroundHealth care workers (HCW) are at risk of infection during Ebola virus disease outbreaks and therefore may be targeted for vaccination before or during outbreaks. The effect of these strategies depends on the role of HCW in transmission which is understudied.\n\nMethodsTo evaluate the effect of HCW-targeted or community vaccination strategies, we used a transmission model to explore the relative contribution of HCW and the community to transmission. We calibrated the model to data from multiple Ebola outbreaks. We quantified the impact of ahead-of-time HCW-targeted strategies, and reactive HCW and community vaccination.\n\nResultsWe found that for some outbreaks (we call \"type 1\") HCW amplified transmission both to other HCW and the community, and in these outbreaks prophylactic vaccination of HCW decreased outbreak size. Reactive vaccination strategies had little effect because type 1 outbreaks ended quickly. However, in outbreaks with longer time courses (\"type 2 outbreaks\"), reactive community vaccination decreased the number of cases, with or without prophylactic HCW-targeted vaccination. For both outbreak types, we found that ahead-of-time HCW-targeted strategies had an impact at coverage of 30%.\n\nConclusionsThe optimal vaccine strategy depends on the dynamics of the outbreak and the impact of other interventions on transmission. Although we will not know the characteristics of a new outbreak, ahead-of-time HCW-targeted vaccination can decrease the total outbreak size, even at low vaccine coverage.\n\nsummaryTargeting health care workers for Ebola virus disease vaccination can decrease the size of outbreaks, and the number of health care workers infected. The impact of these strategies decrease depends on timing, coverage, and the dynamics of the outbreak.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

On the genetic and environmental reasons why intelligence correlates with criminal victimization

Researchers have expended considerable effort to understand the causes and correlates of criminal victimization. More recently, scholars have focused on identifying individual-level traits that increase the odds of victimization. Generally absent from this line of research, however, is examining the extent to which previously unmeasured genetic and environmental influences contribute to the covariation between victimization and individual-level risk factors. The current study aims to replicate and extend prior research by examining the contribution of genetic and environmental influences on the association between intelligence and victimization by analyzing twin and sibling data from two nationally representative samples of American youth. Quantitative genetic analyses indicate that common additive genetic factors, as well as non-shared environmental factors, explained the phenotypic association between intelligence and victimization. Finally, our results revealed that after correcting for possible familial confounding, the effect of intelligence on victimization experiences remained statistically significant. The findings of the current study replicate and extend prior research on the phenotypic association between indicators of general intelligence and the experience of victimization.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Dengue fever and Aedes aegypti risk in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

IntroductionDengue fever is an emerging infectious disease in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador, with the first cases reported in 2002 and periodic outbreaks since then. Here we report the results of a pilot study conducted in two cities in 2014: Puerto Ayora (PA) on Santa Cruz Island, and Puerto Baquerizo Moreno (PB) on Santa Cristobal Island. The aims of this study were to assess the social-ecological risk factors associated with dengue and mosquito presence at the household-level.\n\nMethodsIn 2014 we conducted 100 household surveys (50 on each island) in neighborhoods with prior reported dengue. Adult mosquitoes were collected inside and outside the home, larval indices were determined through container surveys, and heads of households were interviewed to determine demographics, prior dengue infections, housing conditions, and knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding dengue. Multimodel selection methods were used to derive best-fit generalized linear regression (GLM) models of prior dengue infection, and the presence of Ae. aegypti in the home.\n\nResultsWe found that 24% of PB and 14% of PA respondents self-reported a prior dengue infection, and more PB homes than PA homes had Ae. aegypti. The top-ranked model for prior dengue infection included human movement - travel between neighborhoods, between islands, and to the mainland; demographics including salary level and education of the head of household, and increase with more people per room in a house, house condition, access to water quality issues, and dengue awareness. The top-ranked model for the presence of Ae. aegypti included housing conditions, including the presence of window screens and air conditioners, mosquito control actions, and dengue risk perception.\n\nDiscussion/conclusionTo our knowledge, this is the first study of dengue risk and Aedes aegypti in the Galapagos Islands. The findings that human movement within and between islands, and to and from the mainland, were important to reported dengue cases confirms concerns of this route of introduction and repeated transmission.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Association between Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number and Sudden Cardiac Death: Findings from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC)

AimsSudden cardiac death (SCD) is a major public health burden. Mitochondrial dysfunction has been implicated in a wide range of cardiovascular diseases including cardiomyopathy, heart failure, and arrhythmias, but it is unknown if it also contributes to SCD risk. We sought to examine the prospective association between mtDNA copy number (mtDNA-CN), a surrogate marker of mitochondrial function, and SCD risk.\n\nMethods and ResultsWe measured baseline mtDNA-CN in 11,093 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. mtDNA-CN was calculated from probe intensities of mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) on the Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 6.0. SCD was defined as a sudden pulseless condition presumed due to a ventricular tachyarrhythmia in a previously stable individual without evidence of a non-cardiac cause of cardiac arrest. SCD cases were reviewed and adjudicated by an expert committee. During a median follow-up of 20.4 years, we observed 361 SCD cases. After adjusting for age, race, sex, and center, the hazard ratio (HR) for SCD comparing the 1st to the 5th quintiles of mtDNA-CN was 2.24 (95% CI 1.58 to 3.19; p-trend <0.001). When further adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors, prevalent CHD, heart rate, and QT interval duration, the association remained statistically significant. Spline regression models showed that the association was approximately linear over the range of mtDNA-CN values. No apparent interaction by race or by sex was detected.\n\nConclusionIn this community-based prospective study, mtDNA-CN in peripheral blood was inversely associated with the risk of SCD.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Association of pre-pregnancy body mass index with future offspring metabolic profile: findings from three independent European birth cohorts

BackgroundA high proportion of women start pregnancy overweight/obese. According to the developmental overnutrition hypothesis, this could lead offspring to have metabolic disruption throughout their lives, and, thus perpetuate the obesity epidemic across generations. Concerns about this hypothesis are influencing antenatal care. However, it is unknown whether maternal pregnancy adiposity is associated with long-term risk of adverse metabolic profiles in offspring, and if so, whether this association is causal, via intrauterine mechanisms, or explained by shared familial (genetic, lifestyle, socioeconomic) characteristics. We aimed to determine if associations between maternal body mass index (BMI) with offspring systemic metabolite profile are causal via intrauterine mechanisms or familial factors.\n\nMethods and FindingsWe used one and two-stage individual participant data (IPD) metaanalysis, and a negative-control (paternal BMI) to examine the association between maternal prepregnancy BMI and offspring serum metabolome from three European birth cohorts (offspring age at metabolite assessment 16, 17 and 31 years). Circulating metabolites were quantified by high-throughput nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Results from one-stage IPD meta-analysis (N=5327 to 5377 mother-father-offspring trios) showed that increasing maternal and paternal BMI was associated with an adverse cardio-metabolic profile in offspring. We observed strong positive associations with VLDL-lipoproteins, VLDL-C, VLDL-triglycerides, VLDL-diameter, branched/aromatic amino acids, glycoprotein acetyls, and triglycerides, and strong negative associations with HDL-lipoprotein, HDL-diameter, HDL-C, HDL2-C and HDL3-C (all P<0.003). Stronger magnitudes of associations were present for maternal compared with paternal BMI across these associations, however there was no strong statistical evidence for heterogeneity between them (all bootstrap P >0.003, equivalent to 0.05 after accounting for multiple testing). Results were similar in each individual cohort, and in the two-stage analysis. Offspring BMI showed similar patterns of crosssectional association with metabolic profiles as for parental pre-pregnancy BMI associations, but with greater magnitudes. Adjustment of the parent BMI-offspring metabolite associations for offspring BMI suggested the parental associations were largely due to the association of parental BMI measures with offspring BMI.\n\nConclusionOur findings suggest that maternal BMI-offspring metabolome associations are likely to be largely due to shared genetic or familial lifestyle confounding, rather than intrauterine programming mechanisms. They do not support the introduction of measures to reduce maternal BMI in order to prevent adverse offspring cardio-metabolic health.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Depression Linked to Frequent Emergency Department Use in Large 10-year Retrospective Analysis of an Integrated Health Care System

We evaluated general patient features related to depression and frequency of Emergency Department (ED) use in a large integrated health care system. Electronic Health Records of 287,281 adults from a general patient population were studied retrospectively over a 10-year period. Patients with a history of depression were more likely to be seen in the ED and at higher frequency than those without. Frequent ED users were more likely to have a history of depression or psychiatric medication orders than infrequent users. ED visits by depression patients and frequent users have highly correlated complaints and discharge diagnoses with other ED users, often related to pain. Poorly managed depression may be playing a role in frequent ED utilization which may be addressed by universal screening for depression, evaluation of barriers to treatment, and other novel interventions to improve care coordination.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Do early life non-cognitive skills matter?A systematic review and meta-analysis of early life effects on academic achievement, psychosocial, language and cognitive, and health outcomes

BackgroundSuccess in school and the labour market is due to more than just high intelligence. Associations between traits such as attention, self-regulation, and perseverance in childhood, and later outcomes have been investigated by psychologists, economists, and epidemiologists. Such traits have been loosely referred to as \"non-cognitive\" skills. There has been no attempt to systematically assess the relative importance of non-cognitive skills in early life on later outcomes.\n\nMethodsThe systematic review protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42013006566) in December 2013. We systematically reviewed electronic databases covering psychology, education, health and economics for articles published from database conception until September 2015. Titles and abstracts were screened for eligibility, and from eligible articles data was extracted on study design, sample type and size, age of participants at exposure and outcome, loss to follow up, measurement of exposure and outcome, type of intervention and comparison group, confounding adjustment and results. Where possible we extracted a standardised effect size. We reviewed all studies and rated their evidence quality as better, weak, or poor on the basis of study design and potential for confounding, selection and measurement bias.\n\nResultsWe reviewed 375 studies and provided interpretation of results from 142 (38%) better quality studies comprising randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental, fixed effects including twin studies, longitudinal and some cross-sectional designs that made reasonable attempts to control confounding. In the academic achievement category outcomes were reported in 78 publications of better quality studies which were consistent with 0.1-0.2 SD effects.\n\nPsychosocial outcomes were reported in 65 better quality studies consistent with effects of 0.3-0.4 SD. For the language and cognitive category there were 42 publications reporting better quality studies consistent with effects of 0.3-0.4 SD. For physical health, results across only eight better quality studies were inconsistent but centred around zero. Analysis of funnel plots consistently showed asymmetric distributions, raising the potential of small study bias which may inflate these observed effects.\n\nConclusionsThe evidence under-pinning the importance of non-cognitive skills for life success is diverse and inconsistent. Nevertheless, there is tentative evidence from published studies that non-cognitive skills associate with modest improvements in academic achievement, psychosocial, and language and cognitive outcomes with effects in the range of 0.2-0.4 SD. The quality of evidence under-pinning this field is generally low with more than a third of studies making little or no attempt to control even the most basic confounding (endogeneity) bias. The evidence could be improved by adequately powering studies, and using procedures and tools that improve the conduct and reporting of RCTs and observational studies. Interventions designed to develop childrens non-cognitive skills could potentially improve opportunities, particularly for disadvantaged children. The inter-disciplinary researchers interested in these skills should take a more rigorous approach to determine which interventions are most effective.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Identifying Human Encounters That Shape The Transmission Of Streptococcus Pneumoniae And Other Respiratory Infections

Although patterns of social contacts are believed to be an important determinant of infectious disease transmission, there is little empirical evidence to back this up. Indeed, no previous study has linked individuals risk of respiratory infection with their current pattern of social contacts. We explored whether the frequency of different types of social encounters were associated with current pneumococcal carriage and self-reported acute respiratory symptoms (ARS), though a survey in Uganda in 2014. In total 566 participants were asked about their daily social encounters and about symptoms of ARS in the last two weeks. A nasopharyngeal specimen was also taken from each participant. We found that the frequency of physical (i.e. skin-to-skin), long ([≥]1h) and household contacts - which capture some measure of close (i.e. relatively intimate) contact -, was higher among pneumococcal carriers than non-carriers, and among people with ARS compared to those without, irrespective of their age. With each additional physical encounter the age-adjusted risk of carriage and ARS increased by 6% (95%CI 2-9%) and 9% (1-18%) respectively. In contrast, the number of casual contacts (<5 minutes long) was not associated with either pneumococcal carriage or ARS. A detailed analysis by age of contacts showed that the number of close contacts with young children (<5 years) was particularly higher among older children and adult carriers than non-carriers, while the higher number of contacts among people with ARS was more homogeneous across contacts of all ages. Our findings provide key evidence that the frequency of close interpersonal contact is important for transmission of respiratory infections, but not that of casual contacts. Such results strengthen the evidence for public health measures based upon assumptions of what contacts are important for transmission, and are important to improve disease prevention and control efforts, as well as inform research on infectious disease dynamics.\n\nAuthor summaryAlthough social contacts are an important determinant for the transmission of many infectious diseases it is not clear how the nature and frequency of contacts shape individual infection risk. We explored whether frequency, duration and type of social encounters were associated with someones risk of respiratory infection, using nasopharyngeal carriage (NP) of Streptococcus pneumoniae and acute respiratory symptoms as endpoints. To do so, we conducted a survey in South-West Uganda collecting information on peoples social encounters, respiratory symptoms, and pneumococcal carriage status. Our results show that both pneumococcal carriage and respiratory symptoms are independently associated with a higher number of social encounters, irrespective of a persons age. More specifically, our findings strongly suggest that the frequency of close contacts is important for transmission of respiratory infections, particularly pneumococcal carriage. In contrast, our study showed no association with the frequency of short casual contacts. Those results are essential for both improving disease prevention and control efforts as well as informing research on infectious disease dynamics and transmission models.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Heterosubtypic Cross-Reactivity Of HA1 Antibodies To Influenza A, With Emphasis On Nonhuman Subtypes (H5N1, H7N7, H9N2)

Epidemics of influenza A vary greatly in size and age distribution of cases, and this variation i attributed to varying levels of pre-existing immunity. Recent studies have shown that antibody mediated immune responses are more cross-reactive than previously believed, and shape patterns of humoral immunity to influenza A viruses over long periods. Here we quantify antibody responses to the hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) across a range of subtypes using protein microarray analysis of cross-sectional serological surveys carried out in the Netherlanc before and after the A/2009 (H1N1) pandemic. We find significant associations of responses, both within and between subtypes. Interestingly, substantial overall reactivity is observed to HA1 of avian H7N7 and H9N2 viruses. Seroprevalence of H7N7 correlates with antibody titer to A/1968 (H3N2), and is highest in persons born between 1954 and 1969. Seroprevalence of H9N2 is high across all ages, and correlates strongly with A/1957 (H2N2). This correlation is most pronounced in A/2009 (H1N1) infected persons born after 1968 who have never encountered A/1957 (H2N2)-like viruses. We conclude that heterosubtypic antibody crossreactivity, both between human subtypes and between human and nonhuman subtypes, is common in the human population.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Validation Of A Novel Molecular Host Response Assay To Diagnose Infection In Hospitalized Patients Admitted To The ICU With Acute Respiratory Failure

PurposeThe discrimination between infectious and non-infectious causes of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in hospitalized patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is difficult. Using a novel diagnostic test measuring the expression of four RNA biomarkers in blood (SeptiCyte LAB) we aimed to distinguish between infection and inflammation in this setting.\n\nMethodsWe enrolled hospitalized patients with ARF requiring prompt intubation in the ICU from 2011 to 2013. We excluded patients having an established infection diagnosis or an evidently non-infectious reason for intubation. Blood samples were collected upon ICU admission. Test results were categorized into four probability bands (with higher bands indicating a higher probability of infection) and compared with the plausibility of infection as rated by post-hoc assessment using predefined definitions.\n\nResultsOf 467 included patients, 373 (80%) were treated for a suspected infection at admission. Plausibility of infection was classified as ruled-out, undetermined, or confirmed in 41 (11%), 135 (36%), and 197 (53%) of these, respectively. Overall, the pre-test probability of infection was 42%. Test results correlated with the plausibility of infection (Spearmans rho 0.332; p<0.001). After exclusion of undetermined cases, positive predictive values were 29%, 54%, and 76% for probability bands 2, 3, and 4, respectively, whereas the negative predictive value for band 1 was 76%. However, SeptiCyte LAB did not outperform CRP when comparing diagnostic discrimination (AUC 0.731; 95%CI 0.677-0.786 vs. 0.727; 95%CI 0.666-0.788).\n\nConclusionIn a setting of hospitalized patients admitted to the ICU with ARF, the diagnostic value of SeptiCyte LAB seems limited.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

The role of glycaemic and lipid risk factors in mediating the effect of BMI on coronary heart disease: A two-step, two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BackgroundThe extent to which effects of BMI on coronary heart disease (CHD) are mediated by gylcaemic and lipid risk factors is unclear.\n\nMethodsWe used two-sample Mendelian randomization to determine the causal effect of: (i) BMI on CHD (60,801 cases; 123, 504 controls), type 2 diabetes (T2DM; 34,840 cases; 114,981 controls), fasting glucose (n=46,186), insulin (n=38,238), HbA1c (n=46,368), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (n=188,577); (ii) glycaemic and lipids traits on CHD; and (iii) extent to which these traits mediated any effect of BMI on CHD.\n\nFindingsOne standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI (~ 4.5kg/m2) increased CHD (odds ratio=1.45 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27, 1.66)) and T2DM (1.96 (1.35, 2.83)), and levels of fasting glucose (0.07mmol/l (95%CI 0.03, 0.11)), HbA1c (0.05% (95%CI 0.01, 0.08)), fasting insulin (0.18log pmol/l (95%CI 0.14, 0.22)) and triglycerides (0.20 SD (95%CI 0.14, 0.26)), and lowered levels of HDL-C (-0.23 SD (95%CI -0.32, -0.15)). BMI was not causally related to LDL-C. After accounting for potential pleiotropy, triglycerides, HbA1c and T2DM were causally related to CHD. The BMI-CHD effect reduced from 1.45 to 1.16 (95%CI 0.99, 1.36) and to 1.36 (95%CI 1.19, 1.57) with genetic adjustment for triglycerides or HbA1c respectively, and to 1.09 (95%CI 0.94, 1.27) with adjustment for both.\n\nInterpretationIncreased triglyceride levels and poor glycaemic control appear to mediate much of the effect of BMI on CHD.\n\nFundingEuropean Research Council (669545), European Union (733206), China Medical Board (CMB_2015/16), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico and UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12013/5).

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Sex-associated autosomal DNA methylation differences are wide-spread and stablethroughout childhood

Almost all species show sexual discordance in many traits and diseases. DNA methylation is known to contribute to these differences through well-established mechanisms including X-inactivation in females, imprinting and parent-of-origin effects. Here we investigate sex discordance in DNA methylation throughout childhood in a sample of 700 individuals from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We show that autosomal sex-discordant methylation is widespread, affecting approximately 12,000 CpG sites at any given age, and stable; at least 8,500 sites are consistently different across all time points and a large proportion discordant in both the fetal and adult brain cortices. Just over 1,000 methylation differences change from birth to late adolescence, 90% of these between birth and around age seven. Sexually discordant CpG sites are enriched in genomic loci containing androgen but not estrogen targets and in genes involved in tissue development but not housekeeping functions. A methylation-derived sex score capturing the variance was calculated at each time point and found to be highly correlated between time points. This score is nominally associated with sex hormone levels in childhood as well as some phenotypes previously linked to sex hormone levels. These findings suggest that sex-discordant autosomal DNA methylation is widespread throughout the genome, likely due to the first androgen exposures in utero. It is then stably maintained from birth to late adolescence. Methylation variation at sex-discordant sites within the sexes, as summarized by the methylation sex score, likely reflects in utero androgen exposure which is relevant to human health.\n\nSignificance StatementAlthough we know that sex hormones are critical for establishing sexual discordance, less is known about how this discordance is achieved and maintained. Here we present evidence for widespread differences in DNA methylation between male and female children. We show that most of these differences are established prenatally, likely due to the first androgen exposures in utero, and then stably maintained throughout childhood, despite extreme fluctuations in the levels of these very same hormones. Our results support a role for DNA methylation as a means for recording and maintaining the effects of exposure to sex hormones and thus to better understand sexual variation and how it is driven by the prenatal environment.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Assessing The Efficiency Of Catch-Up Campaigns For Introduction Of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine; A Modelling Study Based On Data From Kilifi, Kenya

BackgroundThe World Health Organisation recommends the use of catch-up campaigns as part of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to accelerate herd protection and hence PCV impact. The value of a catch-up campaign is a trade-off between the costs of vaccinating additional age groups and the benefit of additional direct and indirect protection. There is a paucity of observational data, particularly from low-middle income countries to quantify the optimal breadth of such catch-up campaigns.\n\nMethodsIn Kilifi, Kenya PCV10 was introduced in 2011 using the 3-dose EPI infant schedule and a catch-up campaign in children <5 years old. We fitted a transmission dynamic model to detailed local data including nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) to infer the marginal impact of the PCV catch-up campaign over hypothetical routine cohort vaccination in that setting, and to estimate the likely impact of alternative campaigns and their dose-efficiency.\n\nResultsWe estimated that, within 10 years of introduction, the catch-up campaign among <5y olds prevents an additional 65 (48 to 84) IPD cases, compared to PCV cohort introduction alone. Vaccination without any catch-up campaign prevented 155 (121 to 193) IPD cases and used 1321 (1058 to 1698) PCV doses per IPD case prevented. In the years after implementation, the PCV programme gradually accrues herd protection and hence its dose-efficiency increases: 10 years after the start of cohort vaccination alone the programme used 910 (732 to 1184) doses per IPD case averted. We estimated that a two-dose catch-up among <1y olds uses an additional 910 (732 to 1184) doses per additional IPD case averted. Furthermore, by extending a single dose catch-up campaign to children 1 to <2y old and subsequently to 2 to <5y olds the campaign uses an additional 412 (296 to 606) and 543 (403 to 763) doses per additional IPD case averted. These results were not sensitive to vaccine coverage, serotype competition, the duration of vaccine protection or the relative protection of infants.\n\nConclusionsWe find that catch-up campaigns are a highly dose-efficient way to accelerate population protection against pneumococcal disease.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Diagnostic Prediction Tools For Bacteraemia Caused By 3rd Generation Cephalosporin-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae In Suspected Bacterial Infections: A Nested Case-Control Study

ObjectivesCurrent guidelines for empirical antibiotic treatment poorly predict the presence of 3rd generation cephalosporin resistant Enterobacteriaceae (3GC-R EB) as a cause of infection, thereby increasing unnecessary carbapenem use. We aimed to develop diagnostic scoring systems to better predict the presence of 3GC-R EB as a cause of bacteraemia.\n\nMethodsA retrospective nested case-control study was performed that included patients [≥]18 years in whom blood cultures were obtained and intravenous antibiotics were initiated. Each patient with 3GC-R EB bacteraemia was matched to four control infection episodes within the same hospital, based on blood culture date and onset location (community or hospital). Starting from 32 described clinical risk factors at infection onset, selection strategies were used to derive scoring systems for the probability of community- and hospital-onset 3GC-R EB bacteraemia.\n\nResults3GC-R EB bacteraemia occurred in 90 of 22,506 (0.4%) community-onset and in 82 of 8,110 (1.0%) hospital-onset infections, and these cases were matched to 360 community-onset and 328 hospital-onset control episodes, respectively. The derived community-onset and hospital-onset scoring system consisted of 6 and 9 predictors, respectively, with c-statistics of 0.807 (95% confidence interval 0.756-0.855) and 0.842 (0.794-0.887). With selected score cutoffs, the models identified 3GC-R EB bacteraemia with equal sensitivity as existing guidelines, but reduced the proportion of patients classified as at risk for 3GC-R EB bacteraemia (i.e. eligible for empiric carbapenem therapy) with 40% in patients with community-onset and 49% in patients with hospital-onset infection.\n\nConclusionsThese prediction rules for 3GC-R EB bacteraemia may reduce unnecessary empiric carbapenem use.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Physical Activity Phenotyping With Activity Bigrams, And Their Association With BMI

BackgroundAnalysis of physical activity usually focuses on a small number of summary statistics derived from accelerometer recordings: average counts per minute, and the proportion of time spent in moderate-vigorous physical activity or in sedentary behaviour. We show how bigrams, a concept from the field of text mining, can be used to describe how a persons activity levels change across (brief) time points. These variables can, for instance, differentiate between two people with the same time in moderate activity, where one person often stays in moderate activity from one moment to the next and the other does not.\n\nMethodsWe use data on 4810 participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We generate a profile of bigram frequencies for each participant and test the association of each frequency with body mass index (BMI), as an exemplar.\n\nResultsWe found several associations between changes in bigram frequencies and BMI. For instance, a 1 standard deviation decrease in the number of adjacent minutes in sedentary then moderate activity (or vice versa), with a corresponding increase in the number of adjacent minutes in moderate then vigorous activity (or vice versa), was associated with a 2.36 kg/m2 lower BMI [95% CI: -3.47, -1.26], after accounting for the time spent at sedentary, low, moderate and vigorous activity.\n\nConclusionsActivity bigrams are novel variables that capture how a persons activity changes from one moment to the next. These variables can be used to investigate how sequential activity patterns associate with other traits.\n\nKey MessagesO_LIEpidemiologists typically use only a small number of variables to analyse the association of physical activity with other traits, such as the average counts per minute and the proportion of time spent in moderate-vigorous physical activity or being sedentary.\nC_LIO_LIWe demonstrate how activity bigrams can be used as a set of interpretable variables describing how a persons activity levels change from one moment to the next.\nC_LIO_LITesting the association of activity bigrams with exposures or outcomes can help us gain further understanding of how physical activity is associated with other traits; with further research they might provide evidence for more refined public health advice.\nC_LI

epidemiology↗