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bioRxiv2023

Understanding the phytochemical diversity of plants: Quantification, variation and ecological function

Plants produce a great number of phytochemical compounds mediating a variety of different functions. Recently, phytochemical diversity (chemodiversity), a way which to quantify the complex phenotype formed by sets of phytochemicals, has been suggested to be important for function. However, no study has systematically examined the potential (in)direct functional importance of chemodiversity on a general level, partly due to a lack of an agreement on how to quantify this aspect of the plant phenotype. This paper has four aims: 1) We discuss how chemodiversity (deconstructed into components of richness, evenness and disparity) may quantify different aspects of the phenotype that are ecologically relevant. 2) We systematically review the literature on chemodiversity to examine methodological practices, explore ecological patterns of variability in diversity across different levels of biological organization, and investigate the functional role of this diversity in interactions between plants and other organisms. 3) We provide a framework facilitating decisions on which measure of chemodiversity is best used in different contexts. 4) We outline open questions and avenues for future research in this area. A more thorough understanding of phytochemical diversity will increase our knowledge on the functional role phytochemical compounds, and how they shape ecological interactions between plants and their environment.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Phylogeny, morphology, virulence, ecology, and host range of Ordospora pajunii (Ordosporidae),a microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia spp.

Impacts of microsporidia on host individuals are frequently subtle and can be context dependent. A key example of the latter comes from a recently discovered microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia, the net impact of which was found to shift from negative to positive based on environmental context. Given this, we hypothesized low baseline virulence of the microsporidian; here, we investigated the impact of infection on hosts in controlled conditions and the absence of other stressors. We also investigated its phylogenetic position, ecology and host range. The genetic data indicates that the symbiont is Ordospora pajunii, a newly described microsporidian parasite of Daphnia. We show that O. pajunii infection damages the gut, causing infected epithelial cells to lose microvilli and then rupture. The prevalence of this microsporidian could be high (up to 100% in the lab and 77% of adults in the field). Its overall virulence was low in most cases, but some genotypes suffered reduced survival and/or reproduction. Susceptibility and virulence were strongly host-genotype dependent. We found that North American O. pajunii were able to infect multiple Daphnia species, including the European species D. longispina, as well as Ceriodaphnia spp. Given the low, often undetectable virulence of this microsporidian, and potentially far reaching consequences of infections for the host when interacting with other pathogens or food, this Daphnia - O. pajunii symbiosis emerges as a valuable system for studying the mechanisms of context-dependent shifts between mutualism and parasitism, as well as for understanding how symbionts might alter host interactions with resources. ImportanceThe net outcome of symbiosis depends on the costs and benefits to each partner. Those can be context dependent, driving the potential for an interaction to change between parasitism and mutualism. Understanding the baseline fitness impact in an interaction can help us understand those shifts; for an organism that is generally parasitic, it should be easier for it to become a mutualist if its baseline virulence is relatively low. Recently, a microsporidian was found to become beneficial to its Daphnia hosts in certain ecological contexts, but little was known about the symbiont (including its species identity). Here, we identify it as the microsporidium Ordospora pajunii. Despite the parasitic nature of microsporidia, we found O. pajunii to be, at most, mildly virulent; this helps explain why it can shift towards mutualism in certain ecological contexts and helps establish O. pajunii is a valuable model for investigating shifts along the mutualism-parasitism continuum.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Turning Ecology Against Pesticide Resistance: Exploiting Competition in Pest Populations Through Pesticide Use

Modern agriculture relies on effective pesticides for pest control, but this efficacy is threatened by the evolution of resistance. Although pesticides are novel compounds, pests can quickly develop resistance. Inspired by medical research, we propose an ecologically inspired pest management paradigm that uses pesticides to leverage competitive interactions between pesticide-sensitive and resistant pests. This approach involves reactive pesticide use, monitoring pest responses, and maintaining pest populations below economic injury levels while limiting resistant individuals proliferation. A mathematical model shows that managing pests abundance at critical levels, rather than aiming for eradication, delays resistant-pest dominance. By reducing resistant individuals growth rates and maximizing pesticide-sensitive populations, resistance spread can be hampered. Our findings suggest proactive, ecological, and evolutionary-informed pest management to address threats to food production. This study also highlights opportunities for further research into the ecological aspects of pesticide resistance.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

The dependence of forecasts on sampling frequency as a guide to optimizing monitoring in community ecology

Facing climate change and biodiversity loss, it is critical that ecology advances so that processes, such as species interactions and dynamics, can be correctly estimated and skillfully forecasted. As different processes occur on different time scales, the sampling frequency used to record them should intuitively match these scales. Yet, the effect of data sampling frequency on ecological forecasting accuracy is understudied. Using a simple simulated dataset as a baseline and a more complex high-frequency plankton dataset, we tested how different sampling frequencies impacted abundance forecasts of different plankton classes and the estimation of their interactions. We then investigated whether plankton growth rates and body sizes could be used to select the most appropriate sampling frequency. The simple simulated dataset showed that the optimal sampling frequency scaled positively with growth rate. This finding was not repeated in the analyses of the plankton time series, however. There, we found that a reduction in sampling frequency worsened forecasts and led us to both over- and underestimate plankton interactions. This suggests that forecasting can be used to determine the ideal sampling frequency in scientific and monitoring programs. A better study design will improve theoretical understanding of ecology and advance policy measures dealing with current global challenges. Open research statementData and code used for the analyses and figures are available on Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10066786. Environmental (lake) data (Merkli et al. 2022) are available from ERIC: https://doi.org/10.25678/00066D.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Ecological Impacts of Poultry Waste on Urban Raptors: Conflicts, Diseases, and Climate Change Implications amidst Pandemic Threats

O_LIThe dramatic increase in poultry production and consumption (PPC) over the past decades has raised questions about its impacts on biodiversity, particularly in the Global South. This study focuses on the ecological and environmental impacts of PPC waste metabolism at Asias largest livestock wet market, located next to the continents largest landfill of Ghazipur in Delhi, which I have been monitoring since 2012. C_LIO_LIDaily processing of >100,000 poultry-fowls at Ghazipur results in an annual production of [~]27,375 metric tonnes of poultry-waste, attracting massive flocks of Black-eared kites, migratory facultative scavengers that winter in South Asia. Approximately >33,600 kites foraged in the area every day and disposed 8.83% of the total PPC slaughter-remains produced during October-April. However, with their return migration to Central Asia, kite flocks over Ghazipur reduced by 90%, leading to a proportional decrease in scavenging services. Absence of kites from the larger, migratory race during May-September did not elicit any compensatory response from the small Indian kite, whose numbers over landfill remained unchanged. This raises vital questions about microclimate impacts by green house gases (GHG) released from massive amounts of routine detritus. Bearing in mind the prevalence of ritual feeding of meat chunks to kites in Delhi, my research indicates how life-history traits (migratory vs. resident) enable exploitation of specific anthropogenic resources, creating distinct kite-niche(s). Other opportunistic scavengers, e.g., dogs, rats, cattle-egrets, several passerines, and livestock (fishes and pigs) also benefited from PPC waste. C_LIO_LIPublic health and ethical concerns, including Avian-influenza outbreaks in 2018-21 and pandemic-lockdowns from 2020-22 - that affected informal meat processing - reduced the flocking of kites at Ghazipur by altering spatial dispersion of PPC remains. C_LIO_LIWaste-biomass driven cross-species associations can exacerbate zoonotic threats by putting humans and animals in close contact. The ecological impacts of waste-based biomass, as well as the aerospace conflicts caused by avian scavengers that cause birdstrikes must factor in the integrated management of city waste. The quantity, type, dispersion, and accessibility of food-waste for opportunistic urban fauna in tropical cities along avian migratory pathways are crucial for public health, and for conservation of (facultative) migratory avian-scavengers like Eurasian Griffons and Steppe Eagles that are facing extinction threats. C_LI Lay SummaryO_LIThe global trend of increasing consumption of broiler chickens, driven by rising incomes in tropical cities, has significant ecological implications for both native and migratory birds, as well as other commensal species. C_LIO_LIThe resulting large amounts of debris produced by poultry production and consumption have created a "chicken reconfigured biosphere" in cities along migratory paths. C_LIO_LITo better understand the local and global impacts of poultry production and consumption chains, I conducted a long-term study at Asias largest livestock wet market in Ghazipur, Delhi. C_LIO_LIThe findings reveal that informal handling of poultry waste and cultural practices have had significant impacts on animals that scavenge on the slaughter remains, particularly during the bird flu and COVID-19 pandemics. C_LIO_LIThe study recommends ways to minimise conflicts and health risks and reduce the potential impacts of rotting garbage on the climate by accommodating animals that have adapted to shared urban environments. C_LI

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Veni, vidi, vici? Future spread and ecological impacts of a rapidly-expanding invasive predator population

Economic and ecological consequences of invasive species make biological invasions an influential driver of global change. Monitoring the spread and impacts of non-native species is essential, but often difficult, especially during the initial stages of invasion. The Joro spider, Trichonephila clavata (L. Koch, 1878, Araneae: Araneidae), is a large-bodied orb weaver native to Asia, likely introduced to northern Georgia, U.S. around 2010. We investigated the nascent invasion of T. clavata by constructing species distribution models (SDMs) from crowdsourced data to compare the climate T. clavata experiences in its native range to its introduced range. We found evidence that the climate of T. clavatas native range differs significantly from its introduced range and that the most similar climate in North America to its native range is to the north of its current introduced range. We then compared the SDM predictions to current observations of spread. Consistent with predictions, T. clavata appears to be spreading faster to the north than to the south. Lastly, we conducted surveys to investigate potential ecological impacts of T. clavata on the diversity of native orb weaving spiders. Importantly, Trichonephila clavata was the most common and abundant species observed in the survey, and was numerically dominant at half of the sites it was present in. Our models also suggest that there is lower native orb weaver species richness and diversity closer to where T. clavata was initially found and where it has been established the longest, though human population density complicates this finding. This early study is the first to forecast how widely this spider may spread in its introduced range and explore potential ecological impacts of T. clavata, and we call for continued investigation of this invasions effects.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Ecological selection of dispersal strategies in metacommunities: impact of landscape features and competitive dynamics

Dispersal is simultaneously a cause and a consequence of metacommunity dynamics. While the influence of dispersal on metacommunities is subject of intense research, we still do not understand how species-species and species-environment relationships determine the success of different dispersal strategies in metacommunities. To address this, we employed simulation models considering species with distinct context-dependent dispersal strategies involved in the three stages of dispersal (departure, transience, and settlement). These species were allowed to reach coexistence at the metacommunity scale under various competitive hierarchies and different levels of spatial and temporal environmental variability. By assessing the dispersal strategies of species that persisted and dominated metacommunities, we could understand how metacommunity dynamics impose ecological selection on dispersal. Our simulation model reproduced empirical patterns in species dispersal across different scales, ranging from changes in the success of dispersal strategies caused by local intraspecific and interspecific competition, to observed shifts in dispersal strategies along broad-scale ecological gradients. Additionally, we derived new empirically testable predictions regarding how metacommunity dynamics select for different dispersal strategies. Collectively, our results foster a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing the success and diversity of dispersal strategies in a large array of ecological contexts.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Ecology and not phylogeny influences sensitivity to climate change in Muscicapidae Flycatchers in Eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman hotspots

AimsSpecies distributional responses to climate change can depend on ecology and phylogeny. The degree of habitat specialism is potentially important because habitat generalists with wider distributions are assumed to be less sensitive to environmental changes compared to narrowly-distributed habitat specialists. Additionally, predicting which aspects of the changing climate impacts species with different habitat associations may be particularly challenging in complex environments such as those of tropical mountains. We explore the effects of climate change on potential distributions of Muscicapidae Flycatchers in parts of the Eastern Himalayan Mountains and the Indo-Burman range, and relate predictions to the level of ecological habitat specialism, while accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. LocationBhutan and Northeast India MethodsWe used Maxent to develop ecological niche models of 60 Muscicapidae Flycatchers under different climatic scenarios by collating presences from Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Bioclimatic variables from WorldClim, and elevation from ASTER. Species were scored as habitat specialists or generalists using the Species Specialism Index. Variables with high contributions to Maxent models were extracted to explore sensitivity to climate change based on habitat specialism while testing for phylogenetic signal using Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares. ResultsMaxent models had the highest contributions from variable bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter) under present climate, and tmax (maximum temperature) under future climatic scenarios. Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares revealed that habitat generalists had higher sensitivity to climate change than specialists. We did not detect strong phylogenetic signal in sensitivity to abiotic variables under all climate scenarios. Main conclusionsPotential distributions of Muscicapidae Flycatchers were sensitive to temperature variable in the month of the highest precipitation, and to maximum temperature. Potential distributions of habitat generalists were particularly sensitive to these abiotic variables, and those of habitat specialists less so. Sensitivity to abiotic variables did not show a pattern of phylogenetic niche conservatism. climate change, Muscicapidae Flycatchers, phylogenetic niche conservatism, habitat specialism, tropical mountains, Maxent

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Viromes vs. mixed community metagenomes: choice of method dictates interpretation of viral community ecology

BackgroundViruses, the majority of which are uncultivated, are among the most abundant biological entities on Earth. From altering microbial physiology to driving community dynamics, viruses are fundamental members of microbiomes. While the number of studies leveraging viral metagenomics (viromics) for studying uncultivated viruses is growing, standards for viromics research are lacking. Viromics can utilize computational discovery of viruses from total metagenomes of all community members (hereafter metagenomes) or use physical separation of virus-specific fractions (hereafter viromes). However, differences in the recovery and interpretation of viruses from metagenomes and viromes obtained from the same samples remain understudied. ResultsHere, we compare viral communities from paired viromes and metagenomes obtained from 60 diverse samples across human gut, soil, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. Overall, viral communities obtained from viromes were more abundant and species rich than those obtained from metagenomes, although there were some exceptions. Despite this, metagenomes still contained many viral genomes not detected in viromes. We also found notable differences in the predicted lytic state of viruses detected in viromes vs metagenomes at the time of sequencing. Other forms of variation observed include genome presence/absence, genome quality, and encoded protein content between viromes and metagenomes, but the magnitude of these differences varied by environment. ConclusionsOverall, our results show that the choice of method can lead to differing interpretations of viral community ecology. We suggest that the choice of whether to target a metagenome or virome to study viral communities should be dependent on the environmental context and ecological questions being asked. However, our overall recommendation to researchers investigating viral ecology and evolution is to pair both approaches to maximize their respective benefits.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world

Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures menacing life on Earth. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations about the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (that is, the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes, and mammals (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most one year in advance, and (ii) the median one-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a sobering prediction R2 of approximately 20%. Nonetheless, predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, considering multivariate time series, incorporating explanatory variables or accounting for time trends (environmental forcing) can enhance predictability. To effectively address the urgent challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the predictive information within the available data and explore efficient ways to leverage this information for environmental stewardship.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Multi-level framework to assess social variation in response to ecological and social factors: modeled with coral gobies

1.Understanding variation in social organization that does not have a strong phylogenetic signal represents a key focus of research in behavioural and evolutionary ecology. In light of this, we established a sociality framework that identifies four categories of variation in social organisation that range from large-scale to fine-scale and can each be related to various ecological factors: (1) forms of sociality, (2) degree of sociality, (3) social plasticity, and (4) within-group plasticity. We modelled this framework by quantifying the four categories of variation over time, space and disturbance regime using multiple species of coral-dwelling gobies from the genus Gobiodon. Gobies are a particularly interesting model system as they vary in social structure, have within-group cooperation and form mutualistic relationships with their coral hosts which are vulnerable to climatic disturbances. We found that gobies varied in forms of sociality - from being solitary, to paired or group-living depending on location and disturbance regime. Only low or moderate degrees of sociality were observed in gobies, and this was influenced by location or disturbance regime depending on species. Gobies were more often solitary or pair-forming than group-forming (which became extremely rare) in a high disturbance regime whereas they were more often found in groups in a moderate disturbance regime. The size of coral hosts affected the social plasticity of gobies, and corals were smaller due to climatic disturbances. Gobies did not exhibit within-group social plasticity, as there were no changes to the structure of size-based hierarchies or sex allocation patterns with location or disturbance regime. Lastly, by combining the four categories of variation, we find that there is a high loss of sociality in coral-dwelling gobies due environmental disturbances, which likely affects overall goby survival as living in groups can improve survival and fitness. By using our structured framework, we identified which categories of social variation were influenced by ecological factors like location and disturbance. This framework therefore provides an excellent tool for predicting future responses of animal societies to environmental stressors.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2023

Ecological niche contributes to the persistence of the Western x Glaucous-winged Gull hybrid zone

Hybrid zones occur in nature when populations with limited reproductive barriers overlap in space. Many hybrid zones persist over time, and different models have been proposed to explain how selection can maintain hybrid zone stability. More empirical studies are needed to elucidate the role of ecological adaptation in maintaining stable hybrid zones. Here, we investigated the role of exogenous factors in maintaining a hybrid zone between western gulls (Larus occidentalis) and glaucous-winged gulls (L. glaucescens). We used ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche similarity tests to quantify and examine the ecological niches of western gulls, glaucous-winged gulls, and their hybrids. We found evidence of niche divergence between all three groups. Our results best support the bounded superiority model, providing further evidence that exogenous selection favoring hybrids may be an important factor in maintaining this stable hybrid zone.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2024

Coordinated molecular and ecological adaptations underlie a highly successful parasitoid

The success of an organism depends on the molecular and ecological adaptations that promote its beneficial fitness. Parasitoids are valuable biocontrol agents for successfully managing agricultural pests, and they have evolved diversified strategies to adapt to both the physiological condition of hosts and the competition of other parasitoids. Here, we deconstructed the parasitic strategies in a highly successful parasitoid, Trichopria drosophilae, which parasitizes a broad range of Drosophila hosts, including the globally invasive species D. suzukii. We found that T. drosophilae had developed specialized venom proteins that arrest host development to obtain more nutrients via secreting tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs), as well as a unique type of cell-- teratocytes--that digest host tissues for feeding by releasing trypsin proteins. In addition to the molecular adaptations that optimize nutritional uptake, this pupal parasitoid has evolved ecologically adaptive strategies including the conditional tolerance of intraspecific competition to enhance parasitic success in older hosts and the obligate avoidance of interspecific competition with larval parasitoids. Our study not only demystifies how parasitoids weaponize themselves to colonize formidable hosts but also provided empirical evidence of the intricate coordination between the molecular and ecological adaptations that drive evolutionary success.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2024

Large language models overcome the challenges of unstructured text data in ecology

The vast volume of currently available unstructured text data, such as research papers, news, and technical report data, shows great potential for ecological research. However, manual processing of such data is labour-intensive, posing a significant challenge. In this study, we aimed to assess the application of three state-of-the-art prompt-based large language models (LLMs), GPT 3.5, GPT 4, and LLaMA-2-70B, to automate the identification, interpretation, extraction, and structuring of relevant ecological information from unstructured textual sources. We focused on species distribution data from two sources: news outlets and research papers. We assessed the LLMs for four key tasks: classification of documents with species distribution data, identification of regions where species are recorded, generation of geographical coordinates for these regions, and supply of results in a structured format. GPT 4 consistently outperformed the other models, demonstrating a high capacity to interpret textual data and extract relevant information, with the percentage of correct outputs often exceeding 90% (average accuracy across tasks: 87-100%). Its performance also depended on the data source type and task, with better results achieved with news reports, in the identification of regions with species reports and presentation of structured output. Its predecessor, GPT 3.5, exhibited reasonably low accuracy across all tasks and data sources (average accuracy across tasks: 81-97%), whereas LLaMA-2-70B showed the worst performance (37- 73%). These results demonstrate the potential benefit of integrating prompt-based LLMs into ecological data assimilation workflows as essential tools to efficiently process large volumes of textual data.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2024

A lack of open data standards for large infrastructure project hampers social-ecological research in the Brazilian Amazon

New infrastructure projects are planned or under construction in several countries, including in the bioculturally diverse Amazon, Mekong, and Congo regions. While infrastructure development can improve human health and living standards, it may also lead to environmental degradation and social change. Accessible, high quality data about infrastructure projects is essential for both monitoring them and studying their social and environmental impacts. We investigated the availability and quality of data on infrastructure projects in the Brazilian Amazon by reviewing the academic literature and surveying researchers from the conservation and development community, then used the results of these surveys to identify critical data attributes for the gathering, organizing, and sharing of infrastructure data by social-ecological researchers and practitioners. Although data on infrastructure in the Brazilian Amazon were generally available, they were often of poor quality and lacked information critical for monitoring and research. Data were often difficult to find and reformat, resulting in loss of time and resources for researchers and other stakeholders. Discrepancies between researchers survey responses on data needs and the types of data used in peer-reviewed articles on infrastructure projects indicate the following information was often missing: geographic extent of the project, construction and operation dates, and project type (e.g., paved vs unpaved road). Including these data in a standardized format, along with making them more readily accessible by hosting them in public repositories and ensuring they are current and comprehensive, would facilitate research and improve planning, decision-making, and monitoring of existing and future infrastructure projects in Brazil and other developing countries. HighlightsO_LIInfrastructure projects across the globe spur economic development but also lead to social- ecological degradation. C_LIO_LIResearchers and practitioners need current and comprehensive data to better mitigate social- ecological changes from infrastructure. C_LIO_LIInfrastructure data are often unavailable, inaccessible, or incomplete. C_LIO_LIFinding and organizing datasets cost researchers hundreds of hours and may lead to abandoned projects. C_LIO_LITo promote better research outcomes, governments and NGOs should ensure datasets on infrastructure are accessible, current, comprehensive, and include such vital information as the projects geographic extent, dates of construction and operation, project type, and essential technical data. C_LI

ecology↗
bioRxiv2024

Intraspecific diversity in thermal performance determines phytoplankton ecological niche

Temperature has a primary influence on phytoplankton physiology and affects biodiversity and ecology. To examine how intraspecific diversity and temperature shape plankton populations, we grew 12 strains of the ecologically-important coccolithophore Gephyrocapsa huxleyi isolated from regions of different temperature for [~]45 generations (2 months), each at 6-8 temperatures, and characterized the acclimated thermal response curve of each strain. Even with virtually identical temperature optima and overlapping cell size, strain growth rates varied between 0.45 and 1 day-1. While some thermal curves were effectively symmetrical, others had more slowly declining growth rates above the "thermal optimum," and thermal niche widths varied between 16.7 and 24.8 {degrees}C. This suggests that different strains use distinct thermal response mechanisms. We investigated the ecological implications of such intraspecific diversity on thermal response using an ocean ecosystem simulation resolving distinct phytoplankton thermal phenotypes. Resolving model analogs of thermal "generalists" and "specialists" (similar to those observed in G. huxleyi) resulted in a distinctive global biogeography of preferred thermal niche widths with a nonlinear latitudinal pattern. We leveraged the model output to predict the ranges of the 12 strains we studied in the laboratory and demonstrated how this approach could refine predictions of phytoplankton thermal geographic range in situ. Our combination of observed thermal traits and modeled biogeography highlights the capacity of diverse groups to persist through temperature shifts. Significance StatementIntraspecific diversity in the phytoplankton may underpin their distribution. We show that within a single coccolithophore species, thermal response curves have diverse trait parameters. For example, many strains had a variable range of temperatures at which they could survive (thermal niche width). Adding this thermal niche width diversity to an ecosystem model simulation impacted phytoplankton coexistence and overall biomass. These observations show that thermal niche width is a gap in phytoplankton representation in ecosystem models that impacts modeled phytoplankton biogeography and concomitant carbon cycle dynamics. Including thermal tolerance is crucial to predictive modeling as ocean temperature dynamics change.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2024

Improved potential analysis for inadequate ecological data

Potential analysis is used in many ecological studies to infer whether or not an ecosystem can have alternative stable states, to estimate the tipping points and, to assess the resilience of ecosystems. The main reason behind its frequent use is that such a frequency-based analysis is a minimalistic modelling strategy and therefore, is well-suited for limited ecological data with measurement errors. It has been used extensively in tree cover studies to discern alternative states of savannah and forest, the regime upon which savannah and forest coexist and, their corresponding resilience. Classical potential analysis may produce biased results due to inherent theoretical and practical limitations. This letter introduces a more sophisticated approach to address these shortcomings and enhance predictive capabilities regarding ecological dynamics, especially when working with insufficient data whose incorrect analysis can significantly impact management strategies.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2024

Linear infrastructure and associated wildlife accidents create an ecological trap for an apex predator and scavenger

Animals can be caught in an "ecological trap" when they select for seemingly attractive habitats at the expense of their fitness. Such maladaptive behaviour is often a consequence of human induced rapid changes in animals natal environment such as building of energy and transportation infrastructure. We tested the ecological trap hypotheses for human created linear infrastructure on a widely distributed apex predator and a scavenger - the Golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), whose range spans across the entire northern hemisphere. Roads and railways create novel and attractive feeding subsidies through traffic induced mortality of other species, while powerline areas provide perching or nesting sites and scavenging opportunities from electrocuted or collision-killed birds. These conditions lead to negative demographic consequences for eagles. We used integrated step selection functions for habitat selection and movement behaviour with ten years of data from 74 GPS-tracked Golden Eagles (36 adult and 38 immature) in Fennoscandia. To measure habitat attractiveness, we use wildlife traffic accident statistics on major wildlife species including the eagles, and mortality of five GPS- tracked eagles to show demographic consequences. Eagles selected for linear features all year round and across entire study region. Individuals also searched and sat alongside roads and railway lines more frequently. Immature eagles selected roads and railway sites more consistently compared to adults and showed learning behaviour with age. We discuss implications of these findings for conservation and population ecology of apex predators and scavengers and their potential evolutionary implications. We suggest that rapid removal of carcasses from roads and tracks is urgently needed to avoid this trap for many raptor and scavenger species throughout the world and develop methods and approaches to reduce wildlife traffic accidents all together.

ecology↗