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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.10.02.756313

Environmental correlates of understory plant diversity and distribution in a temperate climate-change refugium

McNichol, B. H.·Dunn, C.·Granville, D.·Hoffart, L.·McGuire, B.·Ridder, A.·Wang, R.·Russo, S. E.
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Abstract

Aim Regional climate-change refugia - areas where abiotic conditions related to hydrology and topography sustain unique plant communities despite an otherwise unsuitable regional macroclimate - have been essential for maintaining biodiversity through past climatic transitions. At fine spatial scales, regional refugia can also contain microrefugia, where canopy structure and topography strongly buffer understory microclimate. We tested whether such microrefugia structure understory plant communities within a regional climate-change refugium, where sheltered, groundwater-fed canyons have sustained a biogeographically distinctive flora since the Last Glacial Maximum. Location Temperate forest in the North American Great Plains, Nebraska, USA. Methods In a 20.2-ha forest inventory plot spanning a sharp topographic gradient, we quantified diversity, composition, and distributions and of understory woody and herbaceous plants across seven functional groups along fine-scale topographic, light, and soil moisture gradients. Results Woody species density and richness were significantly higher within sheltered microrefugia in canyon bottoms and on forested slopes and strongly decreased with increasing canopy openness, whereas C4 grass richness was highest along the exposed, high-light forest-prairie ecotone, reflecting divergent functional group responses to microclimate buffering. Soil moisture structured richness across functional groups: woody plant and C3 grass richness peaked at moisture extremes, sedge richness at intermediate moisture variability, and C4 grass richness declined with increasing moisture variability. Both woody and herbaceous understory plants showed strong variation in composition with topography; in particular, woody seedlings and graminoids exhibited strong species turnover with increasing elevation. Main Conclusions These results demonstrate that topographically driven microrefugia support disproportionate understory biodiversity and suggest that protecting both regional refugia and finer-scale microrefugia will be critical for conserving plant communities, including species documented exclusively in microrefugia, as macroclimate continues to change.

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McNichol, B. H., Dunn, C., Granville, D., Hoffart, L., McGuire, B., Ridder, A., Wang, R., Russo, S. E.. 2026-10-06. Environmental correlates of understory plant diversity and distribution in a temperate climate-change refugium. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.02.756313

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