Multi-Model Machine Learning Consensus Identifies a Dual-Interferon Gene Signature in Ischemic Stroke: An Integrative Single-Cell Transcriptomic Analysis

Abstract

An Ischemic stroke is one of the main causes of death and long-term disability around the world. There are very few treatment options available, especially for the cases where the short time period to give clot dissolving medicine has passed (Powers et al., 2019). While single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has emerged as a powerful tool for understanding cell-to-cell differences within at issue (cellular heterogeneity) (Tang et al., 2009). However translating these high dimensional datasets into clinically useful biomarkers remains challenging (Rajko-mar et al., 2019). A major problem with current biomarker studies is their reliance on a single machine learning model, where results may reflect model bias rather than true biological signals (Lopez-Rincon et al., 2020). Methods: We developed a multi-model consensus framework integrating eight different machine learning methods from three groups: traditional models (logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost), a hybrid deep learning model (CNN-XGBoost), and transformer-inspired models (scGPT, scBERT, sc-Former, Geneformer). The proposed framework was applied to scRNA-seq data from a mouse middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) model (GSE174574; n=6 mice, 54,599 cells). To prevent data leakage, we implemented rigorous subject-wise train/test splitting, ensuring all cells from individual animals remained either in the training sets or in the testsets. Results: All eight models achieved excellent performance on the independent test data, with AUC scores between 0.9778 and 0.9975. From six models that allowed gene level importance extraction, we identified 63 consensus genes (threshold: [≥] 4/6 models), with 17 genes selected by all 6 models. Pathway enrichment analysis showed significant enrichment of interferon signaling, with a novel dual-interferon pattern. Twelve of the consensus genes respond to interferon, and five of them (Ifitm6, Ifitm1, Gbp2, Igtp, Tgtp1) respond to both Type I (IFN-/{beta}) and Type II (IFN-{gamma}) interferons. Notably the consensus included Il1rn (interleukin-1 receptor antagonist), the target of Anakinra -- an FDA-approved drug that has completed Phase II stroke trials with promising safety profiles (Smith et al., 2018; Emsley et al., 2005). Conclusions: The Multi-model consensus framework, proposed in this paper, provides a robust and reliable approach to biomarker discovery that goes beyond the limitations of any single method and reduces individual algorithm bias. The convergence of classical, ensemble, and deep learning methods on interferon and IL-1 pathway genes supports their biological validity as stroke biomarkers. Our findings provide a prioritized gene list for further clinical validation and highlight interferon signaling as a possible treatment strategy warranting further investigation. Keywords: ischemic stroke; machine learning; single-cell RNA sequencing; biomarker discovery; consensus analysis; interferon signaling; neuroinflammation