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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.09.19.752832

Modelling assessment of the different paths of between-farm transmission of avian influenza HPAI in Northern Italy in 2021--2022

Sensi, M.·Sottile, S.·Fornasiero, D.·Monne, I.·Mulatti, P.·Pugliese, A.
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Abstract

We propose a stochastic epidemic model to describe the spread of avian influenza in a network of poultry farms. We consider three main paths of infection transmission between poultry farms: from nearby farms, mainly through airborne diffusion; from farms belonging to the same company, through shared veterinarians, forage providers and similar; from undetected small farms or wildlife. From the parameter estimation, based on a modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm, we infer that approximately 63% of the farms were infected from nearby ones, with an infection force declining with distance; of these, more than one third belonged to the same company of the estimated infector. About 20% were infected from premises belonging to the same company but farther away than the distance threshold of 2 km; the remaining ones from wildlife or unidentified sources. These estimates have been validated by a comparison with genetic data, available for a subset of the farms: the genetic distance between two farms identified, with high probability, as an infector-infectee pair is much lower than between random pairs. These results may help in the implementation of tailored prevention and control measures for future outbreaks.

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Sensi, M., Sottile, S., Fornasiero, D., Monne, I., Mulatti, P., Pugliese, A.. 2026-09-24. Modelling assessment of the different paths of between-farm transmission of avian influenza HPAI in Northern Italy in 2021--2022. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832

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