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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.09.04.749338

Development and parameterisation of a size-structured multispecies bioeconomic model integrating consumer demand

Cottrant, E.·Barrier, N.·Ernande, B.·Gourguet, S.·Morell, A.·Schenk, H.·Shin, Y.-J.·Quaas, M.
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Abstract

A high proportion of the world's population relies on marine fisheries as a source of food and employment, highlighting the need for sustainable exploitation strategies. However, fisheries management commonly relies on single-species models that overlook ecological interactions and economic trade-offs, which may lead to stocks being exploited above sustainable levels. To address this gap, we developed a novel size-structured, multispecies bioeconomic module integrated within the spatially explicit, individual-based OSMOSE ecosystem model. OSMOSE represents exploited fish communities in which individuals interact through opportunistic, size-dependent predator-prey interactions which are explicitly incorporated into the bioeconomic framework. The bioeconomic model accounts for multiple species and size classes, allowing for size-dependent market prices. Fishing costs and profits are represented using an extension of the Gordon-Schaefer model to multiple interacting species, while consumer demand is modelled using a nested Dixit-Stiglitz utility function with three levels of constant elasticity of substitution for fish commodity, species and size classes. We present a method for estimating parameters for the bioeconomic module when empirical estimates are unavailable, using the North Sea OSMOSE configuration, which comprises 15 species. Our method successfully estimated the six bioeconomic parameters required to operationalise the model. Results indicate that differences in cost parameters were primarily associated with variability in species biomass rather than fishing gear, while fish prices were more strongly influenced by consumer's demand than by availability. This framework provides a basis for assessing the economic consequences of alternative climate change scenarios and supporting sustainable fisheries management.

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Cottrant, E., Barrier, N., Ernande, B., Gourguet, S., Morell, A., Schenk, H., Shin, Y.-J., Quaas, M.. 2026-09-07. Development and parameterisation of a size-structured multispecies bioeconomic model integrating consumer demand. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.04.749338

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