A physics-informed hybrid deep learning model for spatiotemporal rice disease prediction using multi-source data

Abstract

Accurate, reliable, large-scale disease predictions are essential to ensure rice production. Existing disease prediction models often face a trade-off between interpretability and predictive capability, necessitating the integration of mechanistic knowledge and data-driven learning within a modelling framework. Accordingly, we propose a physics-informed hybrid gated recurrent unit (PI-HGRU) model for spatiotemporal dynamic prediction of rice sheath blight disease, caused by a fungus. Our model embeds differential equations describing disease transmission dynamics into a hybrid gated recurrent unit (HGRU) framework as mechanistic constraints, thereby enabling collaborative modelling between epidemiological processes and data-driven learning. We conducted model training and evaluation using a long-term, multi-source dataset spanning 17 years (2000-2016) and covering 16 major rice-producing provinces in southern China. These rich data include spatiotemporally aligned field disease observations, remote sensing data, meteorological data, and soil property data. In addition, to address the challenges of irregular sampling intervals and inconsistent sequence lengths in disease survey data, we adopted a sliding time-window-based prediction framework. We further conducted a time-window sensitivity analysis to determine appropriate configurations of the input time window and lag time, enabling the model to represent the cumulative and delayed effects of environmental factors. Our PI-HGRU framework substantially outperforms the purely data-driven HGRU baseline model, improving the squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r2) by 22.8% while reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by 10.2% and 18.0%, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of the models intermediate variables showed that the transmission rate {beta}(t) exhibited interpretable relationships with environmental conditions within the input time window, providing a process-related link between environmental drivers and modeled disease transmission dynamics. Overall, our work demonstrates that integrating epidemiological mechanisms into deep learning models in a physics-informed manner can improve predictive accuracy and stability while enhancing model interpretability, highlighting its potential for large-scale disease forecasting and precision disease management.