Integrating carbon utilization and transport processes into a crop growth model enables the prediction of emergent soybean carbon allocation behavior

Abstract

Accurately modeling carbon (C) allocation is essential for predicting crop yield and the performance of new cultivars in various environments. Most crop models allocate C empirically, using fixed partitioning tables or harvest indices that prescribe allocation without representing the underlying physiology, limiting their predictive power under novel conditions. A mechanistic alternative, in which C allocation emerges from local utilization and transport, could instead respond dynamically to environmental changes, source-sink perturbations, and organ-level trait modifications. To achieve this design, we integrated a utilization-transport-resistance (UTR) allocation model into the Soybean-BioCro crop growth modeling framework. We calibrated and validated the model using organ biomass data from two soybean cultivars grown at two CO2 levels over eight seasons, achieving accuracy comparable to partitioning-based models while predicting more reasonable carbon allocation fractions. Further, the UTR-BioCro model predicted leaf and stem total nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations with reasonable accuracy compared to experimental measurements across the 2022 growing season. A local sensitivity analysis of the model parameters indicated that the onset of reproductive growth influenced yield more strongly than utilization or transport parameters suggesting the timing of this transition as a potential target for crop improvement. Finally, the UTR-BioCro model reproduced yield responses to source-sink perturbations including shading and pod removal, and captured the qualitative response to defoliation without requiring scenario-specific tuning as most partitioning approaches require. By grounding C allocation in physiological mechanisms, this work provides a foundation for predicting crop responses across diverse environments and engineered traits, supporting crop improvement for a changing environment.