Precision Confidence Mapping: An approach to determining individualized network topography with limited data

Abstract

Individualized resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) is increasingly used to guide neuromodulation target selection. However, clinical scans are often short and noisy, and standard pipelines for functional network identification do not provide information about confidence of network assignment. With limited data, unstable network assignments can misdirect stimulation toward off-target regions, making it critical to know which assignments can be trusted. We developed Precision Confidence Mapping (PCM), a bootstrap-based framework that makes this uncertainty explicit and actionable. PCM repeatedly resamples the time series and reruns network detection to estimate how consistently each vertex is assigned to a given network. The resulting confidence maps can be thresholded to exclude less stable regions. We evaluated PCM across scan durations from 5 to 70 minutes using positive predictive value (PPV) as the primary measure of network-assignment precision. PPV quantified the proportion of vertices assigned to a network that received the same label in an independent within-subject 70 minute reference map. Confidence thresholding markedly improved PPV across functional networks, with the largest gains for short scan durations. Compared with standard network assignment, PCM significantly increased agreement with this independent reference. Within-subject agreement remained greater than between-subject agreement, indicating that thresholding preserved individual-specific network topography. These precision gains came with modest reductions in reference-network coverage, particularly at shorter scan durations. This tradeoff may be acceptable for neuromodulation applications that prioritize minimizing off-network assignments. By adding a reliability layer to individualized mapping, PCM supports more cautious and precise neuromodulation targeting under real-world clinical scan constraints.