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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.08.06.743329

Mosquito infection-mediated trait variation alters temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus

Fay, R. L.·Cruz-Loya, M.·Banker, E. M.·Mordecai, E. A.·Ciota, A. T.
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Abstract

Rising global temperatures are reshaping species interactions and the ecological conditions governing vector-borne disease transmission. Although previous studies show that West Nile virus (WNV) infection alters mosquito longevity, fecundity, blood-feeding behavior, and the thermal performance of these traits, trait-based R models largely rely on data from uninfected mosquitoes, implicitly assuming homogeneous vector populations. This overlooks infection-induced trait variation that may influence transmission dynamics. Here, we examined how temperature, infection status, and viral strain interact to shape transmission potential for WNV in Culex pipiens. Life-history traits of WNV-exposed and unexposed mosquitoes were measured across constant temperatures ranging from 10{degrees}C to 33{degrees}C, as well as under a fluctuating temperature regime of 25{degrees}C {+/-} 5{degrees}C. These data were used to generate thermal performance curves and estimate temperature-dependent relative R across treatments. Infection altered the thermal performance of mosquito life-history traits, vector competence, and overall transmission potential. We also found evidence for a bimodal effect of temperature on vector competence, potentially driven by tradeoffs between viral replication and mosquito immune responses. Incorporating infection-sensitive traits into relative R calculations reduced estimated transmission intensity across much of the thermal range without shifting thermal optima or limits, suggesting that current models may overestimate transmission.

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Fay, R. L., Cruz-Loya, M., Banker, E. M., Mordecai, E. A., Ciota, A. T.. 2026-08-07. Mosquito infection-mediated trait variation alters temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.08.06.743329

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