Individual-tree phenology reveals climate-dependent responses to urban thermal heterogeneity across U.S. cities

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is altering the seasonal life cycles, or phenology, of urban trees. Diverse species composition and heterogeneous urban thermal environments can generate pronounced phenological variation within cities, yet such fine-scale seasonality remains poorly understood. This limits the ability to anticipate localized ecosystem services and disservices, including canopy cooling and pollen exposure. Here, we analyzed individual-tree phenology and their response to temperature across 76 cities in the contiguous United States by integrating municipal street-tree inventories, PlanetScope satellite time series, and 1-km near-surface urban air-temperature data. We quantified intra-city and cross-city phenological variation, estimated species-level associations between phenology and fine-scale urban temperature, and tested whether these associations vary with regional climatic context. Intra-city phenological variation rivaled cross-city variation for 33.3% of species in spring and 53.7% in fall. Temperature-phenology associations were widespread: warmer local urban environments were associated with earlier spring onset in 51.5% of cases and delayed fall senescence in 66.5%, with approximately two-thirds of these responses cascading to longer growing seasons. These associations varied with regional climate, generally showing stronger spring advancement and fall delay in cooler and wetter cities, but weaker or reversed responses in hotter or drier cities. Together, these results suggest that urban tree phenology is shaped by interactions among fine-scale urban temperature, species identity, and regional climate. Accounting for this heterogeneity can improve predictions of urban forest function and inform climate-resilient species selection and management. Plain Language SummaryStreet trees within the same city do not all leaf out in spring or lose their leaves in fall at the same time. This seasonal timing, called phenology, affects services such as shade and cooling, as well as disservices such as pollen exposure. We studied individual tree phenology and their temperature response in 76 U.S. cities using street-tree records, satellite observations, and local air-temperature data. We asked how much phenology varies within cities, how it responds to neighborhood-scale temperature differences, and whether these responses depend on regional climate. Variation within a city was often as large as variation among cities, especially in fall. Trees in warmer parts of cities generally leafed out earlier and lost their leaves later, often extending the growing season. However, these responses were stronger in cooler and wetter cities and weaker or sometimes reversed in hotter or drier cities. These findings show that urban tree seasonality depends on local temperature, species identity, and regional climate, which should be considered when selecting and managing trees for future cities. Key PointsO_LISubstantial within-city phenological variation is not captured by city-level averages. C_LIO_LIFine-scale temperature shaped phenology and growing-season length, but responses varied across species, cities, and phases. C_LIO_LITemperature sensitivity depended on regional climate, weakening or reversing in hotter or drier cities. C_LI