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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.06.24.734158

MxSure: a mixture model for inferring within-host substitution rates and transmission SNP thresholds

Khurram, Z.·Chaguza, C.·Kwambana-Adams, B. A.·Shao, Y.·Lawley, T.·Yong, M.·Davies, M. R.·Zarebski, A. E.·Tonkin-Hill, G.
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Abstract

Quantifying short-term evolutionary rates of microbial genomes is essential for understanding the processes that shape within-host evolution and for establishing thresholds needed to track transmission. In studies of short-term evolutionary rates, samples are often collected from closely related clusters (e.g. longitudinally from the same host or from transmission pairs), with substantial time intervals separating genomes between clusters. Distinguishing strain replacement from persistence presents is also difficult in these studies. In addition, many public health and metagenomic bacterial strain tracking pipelines output pairwise SNP distances rather than the multiple sequence alignments required by common substitution rate estimation pipelines. This makes it hard to estimate within-host evolutionary rates in many commensal bacterial species that are difficult to culture and isolate. To address these challenges, we introduce MxSure, a tool for estimating substitution rates and transmission thresholds while accounting for strain replacement from pairwise SNP distance data, as commonly generated by transmission tracking and metagenomic analysis pipelines. We demonstrate the accuracy of MxSure through extensive simulations and by analysing species with previously estimated substitution rates from longitudinal metagenomic datasets. Using MxSure, we estimated within-host substitution rates and transmission SNP thresholds for multiple commensal bacterial species including Bifidobacterium longum and Bifidobacterium bifidum from a longitudinal study of the infant gut microbiome.

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Khurram, Z., Chaguza, C., Kwambana-Adams, B. A., Shao, Y., Lawley, T., Yong, M., Davies, M. R., Zarebski, A. E., Tonkin-Hill, G.. 2026-06-29. MxSure: a mixture model for inferring within-host substitution rates and transmission SNP thresholds. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.06.24.734158

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