Sex- and age-specific body condition decline under warmer and drier breeding conditions in European robins

Abstract

O_LILocal environmental conditions during the breeding season can limit bird populations. Identifying which variables, when, and how they affect key biological traits such as body condition is crucial for understanding long-term population trends under ongoing climate change. C_LIO_LIWe analysed the relationships between environmental variables and body condition during the breeding season in European robins (Erithacus rubecula), aiming to uncover links between short-term environmental influences and long-term trends in body condition in the context of local climate change. C_LIO_LIUsing data from a robin population monitored between 2007 and 2021, we applied weather sliding-window analyses to identify periods when temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation productivity best predicted individual body condition. For each variable, we identified critical time windows (CTWs) influencing (1) body condition across the season and (2) individual changes within two weeks. Juveniles and adults were analysed separately, with adult males and females distinguished during pre- and post-fledging periods. We also assessed long-term trends in environmental variables and body condition, and examined how body condition was correlated with apparent survival. C_LIO_LIBody condition variation across the season was explained by different environmental variables depending on age, sex, and period. Body condition declined with increasing minimum temperatures in adult males and juveniles, and with low soil moisture in adults of both sexes. We did not identify reliable CTWs explaining short-term within-individual changes in body condition. Across 2007-2021, body condition in adult males during the post-fledging period declined with rising minimum temperatures, while fledging dates advanced. Apparent survival was positively associated with body condition only in juvenile robins. C_LIO_LIOur results reveal multiple seasonal environmental influences that may contribute to short- and long-term declines in body condition in European robins, with effects particularly strong (or most detectable) in adult males. Reduced body condition may have demographic consequences by lowering juvenile survival, although shifts in breeding phenology could mitigate this impact. Overall, these findings highlight how environmental effects on body condition can shape long-term population trends and species vulnerability to climate change. C_LI