Widespread evidence for plasticity and recent evolution of plasticity in the breeding phenology of Finnish birds

Abstract

Phenological shifts under climate change often arise through phenotypic plasticity and, where this is insufficient to track shifts in optimum timing, genetic adaptation may also play a role. Understanding the contributions of these two processes is critical for predicting species persistence in a changing climate. While many species show phenological plasticity, we know surprisingly little about the contributions that genetic adaptation of the plasticity reaction norm elevation (timing in the mean environment) and slope (shift in timing as a response to temperature) make to phenological shifts. With the aim of disentangling plasticity from adaptation in temperature-phenology reaction norms, we applied a statistical approach to long-term first egg-laying data from 44 Finnish bird species represented by 69 populations spanning six decades. Applying phylogenetic meta-analysis to parameter estimates obtained from the individual time series, we estimated average plasticity and adaptation effect sizes and tested whether migratory strategy, generation length, and mean laying-date explained among-species variation. Egg-laying phenology was strongly plastic, advancing by 2.5 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1}. We found no evidence for a steeper reaction norm between 5-year periods versus within them, consistent with no adaptation of the reaction norm elevation. However, we detected a significant steepening of slopes over time (-0.04 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} year{square}{superscript 1}), consistent with plasticity across the whole study area increasing from -2.5 to -5.1 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} and in the northernmost area (-0.07 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} year{square}{superscript 1}) from -2 to -6.5 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} over the 64-year study period. Trait analyses revealed no significant effect of migratory strategy, generation length, nor mean phenology on adaptation. We show that plasticity enables substantial short-term tracking of warming accompanied by noteworthy evidence consistent with widespread evolution of. Our approach demonstrates how observational data can help reveal evolutionary signals, offering a tool for improved understanding of the processes that underpin phenological responses.