Forecasting novel therapeutic development in biomedical research

Abstract

Early identification of promising drug research topics is challenging yet crucial for the scientific community to accelerate the development of novel therapeutics. In this work, we leverage large-scale public data from the biomedical literature to extract predictive features to identify promising therapeutic research topics at an early stage. We divide the global citation graph of biomedical literature into a time series of research topics and extract topic features based on citation activity, publication content, and measurable flocking of scientists into novel research topics. Based on these features, our machine learning model identifies research topics that in the future yield Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs years before approval (F1-score of 0.84). 80% of target drugs are predicted in advance, with 65% predicted 8 or more years before approval. This predates the start of phase 2 clinical trials in the vast majority of positive predictions. These results show this approach can efficiently flag research topics generating approved drugs several years prior to approval using public data that would have been contemporaneous at the time of prediction. Thus, reliable forecasting can be accomplished with a high-level view of the publication and citation behavior of scientists, without depending on clinical trial data that may only be deposited with a significant lag. This demonstrates that it is possible to detect early signals of future FDA approved therapies even without any specialized information about these applied research efforts. TeaserLarge-scale data analysis can use the full set of scientific citations to predict which areas of research will yield new FDA approved drugs, years in advance.