bioRxiv Science⌕ Search

bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.05.21.726985

The pattern of mammal change in Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park suggests a fire-mediated pathway to decline and one for recovery

Abstract

ContextFire is a key driver of wildlife pattern in northern Australia, and in recent decades there has been concerted efforts to return burning practices from unmanaged wildfire to approaches more in tune with traditional approaches to fire management undertaken by First Nations people. AimsWe examined fire pattern (early and late dry season) and distance from coast in relation to mammal pattern on a Cobourg peninsula, as there was some evidence in variable patterns in fire history and mammal persistence in this landscape. MethodsIn this study we examined data collected from Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park, Northern Territory, between 2004 and 2017. We investigated the relationship between all native mammal abundance and species richness, and abundance for eight species, with the three environmental variables (distance from coast, preceding early dry and late dry season burning frequency), using an information theoretic model selection and averaging framework. Key resultsThere is a distinctive change in the fire and mammal pattern with respect to distance from the coast; that is, early and late dry season burning increasing moving inland from the coast, and a concomitant decrease or persistence in some key species on this fire gradient. ConclusionsOur results suggest that fire management in northern Australia still needs targeted research linked to active management to more effectively prevent declines of mammal populations. ImplicationsThe location and shape of Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park provide an excellent opportunity to undertake some natural experiments in strategic burning to investigate improved approaches to conservation in fire-prone landscapes.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Kutt, A., Edwards, A., Fraser, H.. 2026-05-26. The pattern of mammal change in Garig Gunak Barlu (Cobourg) National Park suggests a fire-mediated pathway to decline and one for recovery. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.21.726985

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

Species-composition distributions under competition, ecological drift and immigration

Understanding how species interactions, ecological drift, and immigration jointly shape community composition is a central goal of community ecology. These processes determine not only average community composition, but also how often different community states occur. Here, we ask how competition reshapes the neutral distribution of community composition generated by drift and immigration. We analyze a stochastic two-species competition model with immigration and derive the stationary distribution of relative species composition near neutrality. The stationary distribution shows when communities are usually balanced and when they are instead dominated by one species. Species dominance can become common even when the corresponding deterministic model predicts stable coexistence, particularly in smaller communities. Balanced and dominance states can also occur together, producing a trimodal distribution. Competitive asymmetry further biases the distribution toward the competitively favored species. Thus, the interplay between competition, ecological drift, and immigration determines not only how much community composition varies, but also which community states are most likely to be observed. Our results provide an analytical bridge between neutral and competition theory and a framework for interpreting variation in community composition.

ecology↗

Floristic composition, phenology, and conservation value of four peat bogs in Bucovina, with the presence of Betula nana

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the floristic composition and site characteristics of four peat bogs in Bucovina, Romania: Poiana Stampei, Romanesti, Saru Dornei, and Gaina-Lucina. The research was based on phytosociological releves on 25 msq plots and direct field phenological observations, on six field visits from May to August 2026. Vegetation was characterised using the Braun Blanquet method, and floristic similarity between sites was assessed with the Sorensen and Bray Curtis indices. All four plots shared a common core of taxa characteristic of peatland vegetation: Sphagnum spp., Carex rostrata, Drosera rotundifolia, Eriophorum vaginatum, and Vaccinium species. Species richness was 13 taxa at Poiana Stampei, Romanesti, and Saru Dornei, and 12 at Gaina-Lucina. Romanesti and Saru Dornei showed the highest floristic similarity (descriptive values, not statistically tested, given a single releve per site), while Gaina-Lucina differed most markedly, not through species richness, which was similar across sites, but through species identity and through the presence of Betula nana, a glacial relict absent from the other sites. The results provide a descriptive basis for future research on the floristic composition and conservation of these habitats.

ecology↗

Long-Term Surveillance Reveals Establishment of Aedes albopictus in Eastern Nebraska, USA

Aedes albopictus (Skuse), the Asian tiger mosquito, is a highly competent arboviral vector whose range has expanded substantially across the United States over the past four decades. Despite predictive models placing Nebraska within the species' climatically suitable range, its establishment status in the state has remained poorly characterized. Here, we report results from a nine-year mosquito surveillance program (2017-2025) conducted across 44 Nebraska counties in collaboration with the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services. Ae. albopictus was detected in five counties, with sustained, annually increasing populations documented in Richardson, Douglas, and Lancaster counties. Richardson County recorded continuous detections during 2017-2025, with proportional representation rising to 60.50% of collected mosquitoes by 2025. In Douglas and Lancaster counties, temporal advancement of first seasonal detection in 2024 and 2025 provide evidence consistent with successful overwintering rather than annual reintroduction. A cumulative degree-day model predicted adult emergence in mid-May across all county-year combinations, consistently preceding trap deployment by two to seven weeks and revealing a systematic early-season surveillance gap. Generalized linear mixed-effects models indicated that trap-level detection persistence, rather than urban location, was the primary predictor of yearly Ae. albopictus positivity, suggesting that current invasion dynamics are driven by focal source populations. These findings provide strong evidence for the establishment of Ae. albopictus in eastern Nebraska and highlight the need for earlier seasonal surveillance and standardized criteria to define establishment in northward-expanding vector populations.

ecology↗