Efficient Optimization of Genotype Pairs for Intercropping using Genomic Prediction and Bayesian Optimization

Abstract

Intercropping is a promising strategy to improve productivity and sustainability in agricultural systems, but designing effective genotype combinations remains a major challenge owing to the rapid increase in possible pairings as the number of candidate genotypes increases. This creates a practical bottleneck because field evaluation of all combinations is infeasible under realistic resource constraints. Here, we propose a framework that integrates genomic prediction and Bayesian optimization to support efficient decision-making for intercropping system design. Using genome-wide marker data from sorghum and soybean, we simulated intercropping performance across 5,214 genotype pairs under certain genetic architectures, including variation in heritability, correlations between direct and indirect genetic effects, and the contribution of pair-specific interactions. Genomic prediction models incorporating direct and indirect genetic effects substantially improved prediction accuracy compared with models based on direct genetic effects alone, and inclusion of specific mixing ability further enhanced the performance under high-heritability conditions. When coupled with Bayesian optimization, the models rapidly identified superior genotype pairs, requiring fewer evaluation cycles than random or prediction-only search strategies. Acquisition functions that account for predicted uncertainty were most effective in complex scenarios involving interaction effects or negative correlations between direct and indirect effects. These results demonstrate that combining genomic prediction with Bayesian optimization can substantially reduce the experimental burden associated with intercropping design, while improving the efficiency of identifying high-performing genotype pairs. The proposed framework provides a practical approach for prioritizing candidate mixtures in breeding and field evaluation, and contributes to the development of data-driven strategies for sustainable agricultural systems. HighlightsO_LIA data-driven framework was developed to optimize genotype pairs in intercropping. C_LIO_LIModeling indirect effects improved prediction accuracy across genotype pairs. C_LIO_LIPair-specific interactions enhanced prediction under high-heritability conditions. C_LIO_LIBayesian optimization identified superior pairs under limited evaluation capacity. C_LIO_LIThe framework reduces field-testing requirements for intercropping system design. C_LI