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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.05.14.724334

Subsecond whole-brain neural dynamics identified by hidden Markov modeling reflect value-based decision making in humans

Aoki, R.·Iijima, K.·Yamada, H.·Matsumoto, K.·Abe, M.·Hanakawa, T.·Matsumoto, M.
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Abstract

Value-based decision making emerges from coordinated neural dynamics across distributed brain networks. Recent studies using noninvasive whole-brain measurements in humans have highlighted the importance of neural activity in the 2-10 Hz frequency band for value-based decision making. Using magnetoencephalography and hidden Markov model (HMM) analysis, we examined whether and how whole-brain neural dynamics in this frequency band, evolving on a timescale of a few hundred milliseconds, reflect value-based decision processes. Thirty-five healthy adults (females and males) made binary choices between risky and sure options. Trial-wise subjective values were estimated using behavioral economic modeling based on prospect theory. We found that HMM-derived trial-by-trial whole-brain neural dynamics (defined by 2-10 Hz amplitude envelopes in distributed brain regions and their interregional coupling) were associated with the subjective values of choice options in a manner distinct from simple perceptual- or motor-evoked activity. Notably, these trial-by-trial whole-brain dynamics covaried with the difference in subjective values between the chosen and unchosen options when the neural data were time-locked to participants responses, but not when time-locked to option onset. These findings revealed a crucial link between subsecond whole-brain neural dynamics and trial-by-trial decision variables, providing insights into how value-based decision processes unfold over time in the human brain.

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Aoki, R., Iijima, K., Yamada, H., Matsumoto, K., Abe, M., Hanakawa, T., Matsumoto, M.. 2026-05-18. Subsecond whole-brain neural dynamics identified by hidden Markov modeling reflect value-based decision making in humans. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.14.724334

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