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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.05.13.724887

The Metacognitive Sensitivity of Verbal and Numerical Confidence Reports

Zylberberg, A.·Alvarez Heduan, F.
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Abstract

We study how confidence in perceptual decisions depends on whether it is communicated verbally (e.g., "very likely") or numerically (e.g., "80% certainty"). We find that verbal expressions more reliably distinguish correct from incorrect choices than numerical reports, challenging the common assumption that numerical probabilities provide more precise representations of uncertainty. Additionally, in a dyadic decision-making task in which participants can revise their initial reports based on a partners choice and expressed confidence, verbal and numerical reports are equally effective in supporting accurate revisions of initial judgments. Together, these results underscore the effectiveness of verbal expressions as a means of conveying decision confidence.

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Zylberberg, A., Alvarez Heduan, F.. 2026-05-18. The Metacognitive Sensitivity of Verbal and Numerical Confidence Reports. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.13.724887

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