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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.05.06.723357

Defusing the consumption bomb

Weinberger, V. P.·Duncil, E.·Cook, K. J.·Tallavaara, M.·Manninen, M. A.·Okie, J. G.·Fristoe, T. S.·Burger, J. R.
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Abstract

For decades, the "population bomb" has dominated environmental discourse, arguing that high fertility rates -especially in the low income countries- drive global environmental problems. However, current trajectories show global declines in population growth rates, especially in higher development index (HDI) nations, which have the highest consumption. Here we showcase evidence for a paradigm shift from the "population bomb" to a "consumption bomb" narrative of the Anthropocene emphasizing the central role of increases in per capita energy use and CO2 production, modulated by current standard metrics for development and affluence, in transforming the Earth system. Defusing and manoaging the consumption bomb requires rethinking economic growth and wellbeing metrics, reallocating resources toward global change retribution and mitigation, especially in low HDI countries, and transitioning from continually-increasing energy expenditures, especially from fossil fuels, toward more equitable and ecologically resilient ways of living. A new sustainability science must move beyond population counts to confront the biophysical and energetic consequences of the changing cultural, economic, and technological systems that sustain ever-growing demands on Earths life-support systems.

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Weinberger, V. P., Duncil, E., Cook, K. J., Tallavaara, M., Manninen, M. A., Okie, J. G., Fristoe, T. S., Burger, J. R.. 2026-05-08. Defusing the consumption bomb. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.06.723357

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