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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.04.15.718791

Statistical invisibility of working equids in Mexico: Dissecting the gap between global diagnostics and official data (1970-2022).

Garcia-Seco, E.·Diaz, M. A.·Tadich Gallo, T.·Toribio, R. E.·Galindo Maldonado, F.·Hernandez-Gil, M.
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Abstract

BackgroundWorking equids are fundamental to the socioeconomic structure of Mexicos small-scale agricultural sector, which accounts for 71.2% of the countrys active Agricultural Production Units (APUs). Despite their critical role in human rural livelihoods, food security, and sustainable development, these animals face systemic "statistical invisibility" within national and international productive frameworks. This study evaluates the long-term population dynamics and geographical distribution of working equids to analyze their current status amidst agricultural modernization. MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted using national census data from 1970 to 2022 provided by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (INEGI). Population trends for horses, donkeys, and mules were calculated using the Average Annual Variation Rate (AAVR). The severity of population declines was classified according to an adaptation of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria. Finally, national census records from INEGI, Agri-food and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP) and The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) were contrasted with FAOSTAT database estimates to identify reporting discrepancies. ResultsBetween 1970 and 2022, the total equine population in Mexico decreased by 76.5%, falling from 6.8 to 1.6 million. However, a "paradox of modernization" was identified: while total numbers plummeted, the proportion of equids used specifically for work reached a historical peak of 81% in 2022, effectively having doubled from the 44% recorded in 2007. While donkeys and mules have suffered drastic total reductions (87% and 88%, respectively), working horses experienced a resilient 37% recovery between 2007 and 2022 (+3.71% AAVR). Furthermore, a staggering 710.8% discrepancy was found between national census data and FAOSTAT estimates, representing an overestimation of 11.3 million animals in international records. ConclusionsThe persistence and recent recovery of working equids reflect a "resilience of necessity" for approximately 500,000 APUs that depend exclusively on animal traction and packing due to economic constraints and complex topography. These findings challenge the narrative of total agricultural mechanization and highlight an urgent need for evidence-based public policies that address the statistical invisibility of working equids as indispensable drivers of rural sustainability and food security.

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Garcia-Seco, E., Diaz, M. A., Tadich Gallo, T., Toribio, R. E., Galindo Maldonado, F., Hernandez-Gil, M.. 2026-04-17. Statistical invisibility of working equids in Mexico: Dissecting the gap between global diagnostics and official data (1970-2022).. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.15.718791

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