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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.04.13.718188

Heterogeneous transmission estimation and strategy optimization for Chikungunya: a vector-borne modeling study differentiating age and sex

Li, J.·Zhao, Z.·Rui, J.·Zhao, J.·Luo, Q.·Li, K.·Song, W.·Perez, S.·Frutos, R.·Su, Y.·Chen, Q.·Xiang, T.·Chen, T.
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Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and accelerating population mobility in 2025, chikungunya fever (CHIKF) exhibited a trend of worldwide spread, significantly increasing the difficulty of controlling tropical mosquito-borne diseases. To enhance the precision of intervention strategies, this study developed an age- and sex-structured human-mosquito interaction dynamic model based on data from the largest CHIKF outbreak ever recorded in China, and conducted a targeted analysis of prevention and control strategies. By decomposing the basic reproduction number and examining population heterogeneity, asymptomatic males aged 15-59 years were identified as the core transmission group. Optimal control analysis revealed that the synergistic implementation of three measures-- reducing the effective human-to-mosquito transmission rate, reducing the effective mosquito-to-human transmission rate, and suppressing mosquito population density--could reduce the overall infection rate by 95.7586%. Among these, mosquito population suppression should be prioritized as a universal core strategy; however, its protective effect on females aged 60 years and above was relatively weak, warranting particular attention. The study further demonstrated that asymmetric intensity combinations targeting these three intervention pathways--such as intensity profiles of "10%, 90%, 90%" or "60%, 80%, 90%"--could achieve effective outbreak control. This research elucidates population-specific transmission patterns and key pathways for intervention intensity, providing a theoretical and strategic foundation for the precise control of mosquito-borne diseases. It also provides actionable operational insights to support rapid response and strategy optimization for future emerging outbreaks. Author summaryCHIKF is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is gradually spreading from tropical regions to other areas. To achieve more precise control of this disease, we developed an age- and sex-structured analytical model based on the largest CHIKF outbreak in China, aiming to provide a scientific basis for responding to potential future outbreaks with inherent uncertainties. The study found that asymptomatic males aged 15-59 years were the primary drivers of transmission and should be prioritized as a key population for reducing viral spread in prevention efforts. When evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention strategies, females aged 60 years and above were the least affected by the implemented measures, indicating that this group should strengthen personal protection to lower their infection risk. Among all control measures, mosquito suppression was the most effective, suggesting that vector control strategies should be prioritized in future outbreak responses.

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Li, J., Zhao, Z., Rui, J., Zhao, J., Luo, Q., Li, K., Song, W., Perez, S., Frutos, R., Su, Y., Chen, Q., Xiang, T., Chen, T.. 2026-04-15. Heterogeneous transmission estimation and strategy optimization for Chikungunya: a vector-borne modeling study differentiating age and sex. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.13.718188

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