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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.04.11.716011

Columbia Basin Pygmy Rabbit Recovery Planning through Structured Decision Making

Mistry, K. R.·Converse, S. J.
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Abstract

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe endangered Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit (CBPR) faces multiple threats, particularly increasing risk of larger and more intense wildfires due to climate change, emerging disease, and sagebrush habitat loss due to agriculture and development. Through the use of conservation breeding, the CBPR wild population grew from a low of 16 individuals captured in 2001 to over 100 individuals in two subpopulations in 2024. However, these subpopulations are geographically proximate, with potential risk that both subpopulations could be affected by a single wildfire or disease event. Additionally, a succession of setbacks in the breeding program has prompted a natural re-evaluation point for the CBPR conservation program. We undertook a structured decision-making (SDM) process with participants from both Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a strategy that is sustainable and implementable for guiding management in the coming decades across the range of the CBPR, taking into account changing conditions and updated information. A population model that incorporated both demographic and high impact event uncertainties was developed to test how alternative strategies - defined by conservation breeding program, vaccination, and translocation components - affect CBPR population growth and cost objectives. Based on analysis of the model results, we identified the following actions that appear to have the greatest potential to allow WDFW and USFWS to meet their conservation objectives for CBPR: O_LIContinue conservation breeding program, and possibly expand to include an island subpopulation (an isolated, unfenced area that can serve as a source for rabbits while requiring fewer management inputs) C_LIO_LIContinue Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV2) annual vaccinations in both breeding and wild populations C_LIO_LIWhen juveniles are available for translocation, prioritize recovery areas that are in the establishing phase C_LI In addition, while not analyzed explicitly in the model, discussions during the SDM process led to the identification of the following actions, which the group considered to have potential to benefit the CBPR either directly or indirectly: O_LIIncrease the amount of suitable habitat available to pygmy rabbits C_LIO_LIIncrease protections for existing and potential recovery areas C_LIO_LIDesign future monitoring to better estimate survival and reproduction, with an emphasis on understanding how these vital rates vary between wild and semi-captive individuals, between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and as a function of habitat factors C_LI

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Mistry, K. R., Converse, S. J.. 2026-04-14. Columbia Basin Pygmy Rabbit Recovery Planning through Structured Decision Making. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.11.716011

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