Genomic offsets predict observed kelp declines and suggest benefits of assisted migration in the Northeast Pacific

Abstract

Kelp forests are widely distributed along temperate and polar coastlines worldwide and are among the worlds most productive and diverse marine ecosystems. Yet, due in part to ocean warming, they are declining and even disappearing in many parts of the world. While genomic tools can identify local adaptation and predict species responses to global change, these predictions have rarely been validated in the field, hampering their widespread use in conservation practice. Here, we applied a seascape genomics approach to investigate environmental adaptation in the two main canopy-forming species of the Northeast Pacific, Macrocystis tenuifolia and Nereocystis luetkeana. We leveraged whole-genome sequences of 598 individuals across 94 sites along the British Columbia and Washington coasts, together with 37 environmental variables. Both species showed genomic signatures of local adaptation, with distinct environmental drivers shaping adaptation in each species despite their co-occurrence across much of the studied area. Using gradient forests, we modelled the genetic turnover across environmental gradients and predicted populations vulnerability (genomic offset) under projected environmental conditions. Genomic offsets differed greatly among regions and were positively correlated with kelp declines observed to date, especially in Macrocystis, validating the link between genomic models and outcomes in the field and allowing us to translate genomic predictions into an ecologically meaningful metric: the risk of extirpation under global change. Our models predict that assisted migration could significantly attenuate kelps vulnerability to global change. Across environmentally heterogenous coastlines, short-distance migration can often substantially reduce future genomic-environmental mismatches, but in many cases, long-distance migration would be most beneficial. Our results highlight the potential of seascape genomics to predict vulnerability of populations to global change. Importantly, the validated link between our genomic models and ecological outcomes allows quantification of climate-driven extirpation risk and can inform conservation strategies to improve the resilience and sustainable management of these vulnerable ecosystems.