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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.03.31.715656

Estimating Bayesian phylogenetic information content using geodesic distances

Milkey, A.·Lewis, P. O.
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Abstract

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWA new Bayesian measure of phylogenetic information content is introduced based on geodesic distances in treespace. The measure is based on the relative variance of phylogenetic trees sampled from the posterior distribution compared to the prior distribution. This ratio is expected to equal 1 if there is no information in the data about phylogeny and 0 if there is complete information. Trees can be scaled to have the same mean tree length to avoid dominance by edge length information and focus on topological information. The method scales well, requiring only that a valid sample can be obtained from both prior and posterior distributions. We show how dissonance (information conflict) among data sets can also be estimated. Both simulated and empirical examples are provided to illustrate that the new approach produces sensible and intuitive results.

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Milkey, A., Lewis, P. O.. 2026-04-01. Estimating Bayesian phylogenetic information content using geodesic distances. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.31.715656

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