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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.03.30.715261

PEATREST: A lifecycle assessment (LCA) model of carbon fluxes for restored afforested peatlands

O'Sullivan, J.·Whittaker, C.·Xenakis, G.·Robson, T.·Perks, M.
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Abstract

Peatlands are an important terrestrial carbon sink which, when drained, can produce substantial CO2 efflux. Low productivity forestry planted on drained peatlands can become a net carbon source if losses from drained soils exceed sequestration by the trees. Decision support tools which assist resource allocation and intervention planning in forest-to-bog restoration are needed to mediate this substantial environmental harm. Predicting carbon mitigation benefits associated with forest-to-bog restoration is a major challenge, however, due to the lack of long-term monitoring programs and the fact that mitigation times depend on processes distant from the intervention. Here we introduce the PEATREST life cycle assessment (LCA) which predicts carbon fluxes associated with forest-to-bog restoration, including due to processes far from restored sites. The LCA estimates mitigation timescales defined as the time following intervention at which the restored peatland is predicted to sequester or store more carbon than the forestry would have if retained. HighlightsO_LIHere we develop a novel forest-to-bog Life cycle assessment (LCA) tool C_LIO_LIThe LCA predicts carbon mitigation times following peatland restoration C_LIO_LIThe model combines a variety of process-based and empirical sub-models C_LIO_LIExample implementations for two different restoration scenarios are explored C_LIO_LISensitivity analysis highlights the model inputs that most impact outcomes C_LI Graphical abstract(A single, concise figure that serves as a visual summary of the main research findings described in your manuscript.) O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=80 SRC="FIGDIR/small/715261v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (18K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f243f5org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14bc4c7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@164261borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1db3b_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG The PEATREST Life cycle assessment (LCA) generates compound time series of carbon sequestration and carbon storage for two scenarios: the forest-to-bog peatland restoration (PR) and a counterfactual (CF) of forestry retention. By comparing the two scenarios, the LCA predicts the carbon mitigation timescales (vertical dashed lines). These are defined as the time following harvesting at which the peatland is predicted to sequester more (emit less), or to have stored more (lost less) carbon, than the forestry would have if retained. C_FIG

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O'Sullivan, J., Whittaker, C., Xenakis, G., Robson, T., Perks, M.. 2026-04-01. PEATREST: A lifecycle assessment (LCA) model of carbon fluxes for restored afforested peatlands. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.30.715261

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