Time-Varying Dynamic Causal Modelling for Sequential Responses: Neural Mechanisms of Slow Cortical Potentials, Preparation, Planning and Beyond

Abstract

Cognitive processes such as decision-making, working memory, and motor planning operate across a hierarchy of timescales, manifesting as rapid neural transients alongside slower physiological mechanisms like short-term plasticity. Conventional Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) limits our ability to study these dynamics by assuming stationary parameters, whilst recent time-varying approaches often rely on segmenting data into epochs. This segmentation artificially resets neural states between windows, fundamentally obscuring the continuous hysteresis essential to sequential processing. To address this limitation, we introduce DCM for Sequential Responses (DCM-SR), a generative framework that embeds parameter evolution directly within the first-level model whilst employing a continuous state-space formulation that removes the requirement for epoching. This approach generalises non-stationarity to all neural mass parameters, including synaptic gains and time constants, modelling them as piecewise smooth trajectories that evolve alongside continuous neural states. Consequently, the model explicitly captures two distinct forms of temporal memory: transient history dependence, where responses are shaped by the carryover effect of recent perturbations, and path dependence, where the systems trajectory through parameter space determines its responsiveness. The framework accommodates both exogenous, stimulus-locked transitions and endogenous, autonomous state changes, permitting inference on both external perturbations and internal drivers of network evolution. Simulations establish the models face validity, demonstrating robust parameter recovery and conservative model selection that accurately discriminates between genuine parameter evolution and spurious complexity. We applied the framework to empirical data from an auditory go/no-go task, modelling a full sequence of cognitive phases from initial cue processing and anticipation through to motor preparation and execution. This analysis established construct validity by resolving the biophysical generators of the contingent negative variation, attributing this slow potential to sustained thalamocortical drive and deep-layer hyperpolarisation rather than superficial-layer activity. Furthermore, the model captured trial-specific modulations of the hyperdirect pathway during motor inhibition, tracking the dynamic interplay between prefrontal executive control and basal ganglia gating. DCM-SR offers the first principled approach to decomposing compound signals such as slow cortical potentials into evolving synaptic mechanisms and continuous state trajectories, and provides a necessary bridge for investigating the biophysical implementation of extended cognitive phenomena including evidence accumulation and physiological hysteresis.