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bioRxiv · 10.64898/2026.03.06.710155

The impact of coinfection on population stability and chaos

Barahona, F. J. M.·Simpson, E.·Tate, A. T.
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Abstract

Parasites play an outsized role in mediating the persistence and stability of host populations. Flour beetles (Tribolium spp.) have long served as classic examples of population dynamics under both disease-free and infected conditions, with elegant combinations of theory and experiments demonstrating, for example, that cannibalism rates can push populations from stability to chaos. As with most organisms in nature, however, flour beetles rarely face just one parasite species, and co-infecting parasites can antagonize or facilitate each other through resources and immunity. To test the prediction that non-neutral interactions would qualitatively alter population stability, we first raised flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) in infection-free, single-infection, or coinfection microcosms and quantified relative prevalence and parasite intensity. Next, we reworked a classic stage-structured discrete-time model to include single and multiple infections and performed sensitivity and bifurcation analyses to identify the most important (co)infection-associated parameters for population stability. The model predicts that stability is highly sensitive to parasite transmission mode regardless of infection multiplicity, but facilitation among parasites rapidly drives populations into oscillations and chaos under realistic conditions. This study identifies an important mechanism for explaining population variability and highlights the importance of within-host mechanisms for driving dynamics at higher levels of biological organization.

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Barahona, F. J. M., Simpson, E., Tate, A. T.. 2026-03-07. The impact of coinfection on population stability and chaos. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.06.710155

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