Looking backward for the future: long-term population recovery, habitat associations, and future climatic vulnerability of the critically endangered Sino-Mongolian beaver (Castor fiber birulai) in China

Abstract

Despite the successful population recovery of the Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) across much of Eurasia, its subspecies, the Sino-Mongolian beaver (C. f. birulai), remains critically endangered, with an estimated population of approximately 1,500 individuals confined to a small number of isolated and fragmented refugia along the China-Mongolia border. Effective conservation of this highly threatened subspecies requires a holistic perspective that integrates constraints on population dynamics, habitat associations, and future climatic vulnerability. Here, we combined systematic annual field surveys conducted between 2003 and 2023 with historical survey records from 1975 to 1989 in northern Xinjiang, China, to synthesize long-term spatiotemporal population dynamics, evaluate habitat preferences based on nine local environmental variables, and assess future climatic vulnerability using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) under projected climate change scenarios. We detected a significant and phased population recovery, with beaver colony numbers increasing from 27 (approximately 100 individuals) in 1975 to 227 (681-908 individuals) in 2023. This recovery closely corresponded with major conservation milestones, including the establishment and upgrading of nature reserves, strengthened legislative protection, and enhanced multi-stakeholder collaboration. Habitat analyses further indicated that the Sino-Mongolian beaver preferentially occupied areas characterized by minimal anthropogenic disturbance and stable hydro-geomorphic conditions. Critically, SDM projections revealed that only 14% of the current study area presently exhibits high climatic suitability, and these highly suitable habitats are expected to disappear entirely by the 2050s. Together, our findings provide a comprehensive overview of the historical population recovery and conservation trajectory of the Sino-Mongolian beaver in China, and offer robust scientific support for developing adaptive management strategies in the face of ongoing climate change and increasing human pressures.